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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    17 Oct 2022
    Five analyst picks with high target upside

    Five analyst picks with high target upside

    By Suhas Reddy
    1. HCL Technologies: Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this IT consultancy company with a target price of Rs 1,240. This indicates an upside of 24.6%. In Q2FY23, HCL reported an increase in net profit of  6.3% QoQ to Rs 3,489 crore (2.8% higher than the brokerage’s estimate) and an increase in revenue of 4.4% QoQ to Rs 24,922 crore. Analysts Mukul Garg and Raj Prakash Bhanushali note that the revenue growth was led by  IT services, and engineering, research and development verticals. 

    Garg and Bhanushali say, “Strong sequential growth within services, robust headcount addition, healthy deal wins, and a solid pipeline indicate an improved outlook.” Given the company’s abilities in the digital space, its strategic partnerships, and investments in the cloud, analysts expect HCL Technologies to emerge stronger on the back of an expected increase in enterprise demand for these services.

    1. Havells India: ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this consumer durables company with a target price of Rs 1,621, indicating an upside of 31.1%. Aniruddha Joshi, Manoj Menon, Karan Bhuwania and Pranjal Garg say, “While consensus appears concerned about higher copper prices hurting earnings and stock price movement, we note there is a strong positive correlation (0.8) between copper prices and revenues and EBITDA of Havells.” They add that while copper prices increased at a CAGR of 8.5%, the company’s revenue grew at 15.3% CAGR over FY09-22. 

    The analysts, while settling down the concern about inflation add, “Havells has historically been able to initiate pricing action to pass on additional costs and maintain/improve margins. With steady earnings growth, the stock price has also improved in spite of volatility in copper prices.” They remain positive on the company on the back of strong moats and growth opportunities.

    1. Tata Consultancy Services: KRChoksey upgrades its rating on this IT consulting & software company to ‘Buy’ from ‘Accumulate’ with a target price of Rs 3,739. This indicates an upside of 20.6%. Analyst Saptarishi Mukherjee is bullish on the stock despite its Q2FY23 revenue and net profit being marginally below the brokerage’s estimate. The analyst is positive about the company’s future growth prospects as all its business verticals grew on a sequential basis. 

    Mukherjee sees TCS’s deal booking of $ 8.1 billion in Q2 as an indication that the demand for its services is healthy and stable. He adds “Operating margin is expected to improve on the back of lowering the sub-con cost, improvement in retention, pricing, and efficiency”. Overall, he believes the company is well-positioned to weather global macro uncertainties given its size, market leadership, and robust order book to deliver industry-leading growth in the coming quarters. The analyst expects the software giant’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 13.6% over FY22-24. 

    1. Titan: Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this jewellery & watch manufacturer with a target price of Rs 3,140. This implies an upside of 19.7%. The analysts at Sharekhan expect the company’s consolidated revenue to grow 20% in Q2FY23. They expect this growth to be led by the jewellery and watches segments after the company announced its pre-quarter business update. The firm’s standalone jewellery and watches segment grew by 18% and 20%, respectively. “The strong tailwind demand led by a desire to own more premium watches helped brand Titan grow fastest in the watches category aided by higher volume and average selling prices YoY”, the brokerage adds.

    Analysts at Sharekhan are optimistic about the company’s future growth prospects given its aim to increase its revenue at a CAGR of 20% over FY22-27. They also believe that its consistent margin improvement will improve cash flow in the coming quarters. The analysts expect the company’s financial performance in FY23 to be strong due to a low base in its core businesses. They estimate the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 22.1% over FY22-25. 

    1. Bharti Airtel: Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this telecom services company with a target price of Rs 875, implying an upside of 13.9%. The analysts at the brokerage expect data consumption in India to increase in the coming quarters, which they believe augurs well for the company. They add that in Q1, “The company continued a strong share of 4G net ads in the market as the 4G customer base grew by 4.5 million QoQ to reach 195.5 million”. The home business segment also saw a healthy addition of new customers, write the analysts.

    Axis Direct is bullish on Airtel’s future growth as its revenue has consistently been rising sequentially, with growth across its business verticals. Positives here include the company’s efficient execution, superior customer mix, and strong customer additions in 4G will aid margins. The analysts expect Airtel’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 39% over FY22-24.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    14 Oct 2022
    Despite ‘September effect’, MFs make fresh buys in FMCG, Capital goods stocks

    Despite ‘September effect’, MFs make fresh buys in FMCG, Capital goods stocks

    By Ketan Sonalkar

    Traders often talk about the September Effect - that since 1928, indices have historically seen a decline during this month. And 2022 was no exception, as the benchmark Nifty index fell by 3.7% and retreated from the highs made in August. The month saw rising uncertainty around the Russia Ukraine war, and the US Fed and other Central Banks hiking rates to control inflation and the rise in oil prices. 

    Despite this, mutual funds found buying opportunities in stocks that hold future potential. This month also saw a lot of recently launched schemes add stocks to their portfolios. This month's buys include a life insurance company, FMCG players as well as capital goods manufacturers.

    This list is based on a screener where the mutual fund holding grew by a certain minimum percentage and at least four schemes bought more than a lakh of shares each.

    HDFC Life - Tie up with group company to widen customer base

    HDFC Life is one of India’s leading private life insurance companies and part of the HDFC Group. It has been gaining market share and also has better operating metrics than other private insurers.

    In September 2022, it partnered with another group company,  general insurance player HDFC ERGO, to provide a combination of life insurance along with health insurance. This is expected to further widen its customer base. Another positive development for HDFC Life includes the approval of the merger of Exide Life with HDFC Life from the NCLT. 

    Fund managers who bought shares of HDFC Life

    Shares of HDFC Life were added to respective schemes by Mahesh Patil for Aditya Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund Growth, Hiten Shah for Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund Growth, Aniruddha Naha and A. Anandha Pabmanabhan for PGIM India Flexi Cap Fund Regular Growth as well as Vinay Sharma and Kinjal Desai for Nippon India Banking & Financial Services Fund Growth.

    CG Power - Railway orders put the company on the fast track

    CG Power (CG Power and Industrial Solutions) is a manufacturer and distributor of electrical equipment such as transformers, reactors, and other control equipment. It also manufactures industrial motors and pumps, and communication systems.

    Indian Railways, which is undergoing dynamic growth in both freight and passenger transportation, has fueled CG Power with various opportunities for future growth. Indian Railways continue to give orders to CG Power for electrification, signaling system upgrades, and high horsepower locomotives. The company has also approved a capex of Rs 32 crore for the railway business. The motors business, which constitutes around 78% of the CG Power product portfolio, has also been issued a capex of Rs 80 crore.

    Fund managers who bought shares of CG Power

    Buying interest in CG Power saw addition to portfolios by Atul Bhole and Dhaval Gada toDSP Flexi Cap Fund Payout of Income Dist cum Cap Wdrl, Vinit Sambre and Resham Jain to DSP Midcap Fund Growth, Shridatta Bhandwaldar to Canara Robeco Flexi Cap Fund Growth and Atul Bhole and Vikram Chopra to DSP Equity & Bond Fund Growthschemes respectively.

    Triveni Turbine - Robust demand and capacity expansion drive interest in the stock

    Triveni Turbine is the domestic market leader in steam turbines up to 30 MW. The company designs and manufactures steam turbines up to 100 MW, and delivers end to-end solutions to customers. 

    In Q1FY23 it registered a robust revenue growth of 40.7% to Rs 259 crore supported by 59% YoY increase in export business, while domestic business increased by 32% YoY. The management expects execution to pick up pace and to generate 35% top-line growth in FY23. This is backed by its expansion plans with the addition of a new bay in the Sompura plant. This is expected to augment the space for assembly and testing of steam turbines at the factory. The management expects this to be complete in Q2FY23 and post the expansion, the capacity will rise from 150-180 machines to 200- 250 machines per annum.

    Fund managers who bought shares of Triveni Turbine

    Fund managers who bought Triveni Turbines include Sohini Andani and Mohit Jain for SBI Magnum Midcap Fund Regular Growth, Mahesh Patil and Dhaval Shah for Aditya Birla Sun Life Multi-Cap Fund Regular Growth, Vishal Gajwani for Aditya Birla Sun Life Small Cap Fund Growth and Sudhir Kedia and Ravi Gopalakrishnan for Sundaram Flexi Cap Fund Regular Growthschemes respectively.

    Dabur - Expanding product range and good monsoon to provide a boost

    Dabur is one of India’s largest FMCG companies with a presence in segments like health supplements, oral care, hair care, home care and juices. Dabur also derives around 50% of its sales from rural regions with a presence in  90,000 villages.

    Dabur introduced new products across categories in the past few months. These include the premium tea segment with the Vedik Tea brand. It has also entered a new segment of peanut butter. Dabur is also pushing its marketing strategy by hiring Amitabh Bachchan as their brand ambassador. Another factor favourable to Dabur is a good monsoon season which is expected to boost the rural economy, a major contributor to its sales.

    Fund managers who bought shares of Dabur

    Fund managers who added shares to respective schemes include Mahesh Patil for Aditya Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund Growth, Yogesh Patil forLIC MF Large & Mid Cap Regular Growth andLIC MF Large Cap Fund Growth, and Hiten Shah forKotak Equity Arbitrage Fund Growth.

    Sundram Fasteners - Rebound in the auto sector drives growth

    Sundram Fasteners manufactures a range of high tensile fasteners for precision-driven sectors like Automotive, Wind Energy, Aviation, Farm Equipment and Infrastructure. They specialize in  cold extruded and precision forged parts used in two-wheelers, front wheel drive vehicles and internal combustion engines.

    The company has planned a capex with fresh investments worth Rs 400 crore over the next two years as it sees bright prospects for the Indian automobile sector. The powertrain components division had won contracts worth Rs 150 crore for EV products in July 2022.

    Fund managers who bought shares of Sundram Fasteners

    Addition of shares of Sundram Fasteners was done by Harish Bihani and Sharmila D’mello to ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund (Tax Saving) Growth andICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund Growth, Samir Rachh and Kinjal Desai to Nippon India Small Cap Fund - Growth and Vishal Gajwani to Aditya Birla Sun Life Small Cap Fund Growth.

    Tata Chemicals - Strong leadership to be further strengthened with capacity expansion

    Tata Chemicals is one of the top five players in the global soda ash market. The company  manufactures soda ash, sodium bicarbonate, cement, salt, marine chemicals and crushed refined soda along with other specialty chemicals. Basic chemicals form 75% of overall revenue while the rest comes from specialty products.

    The company posted its highest ever quarterly revenues and net profits in Q1FY23. In the Q1FY23 results management commentary, they said that demand for soda ash is strong in spite of high prices. Demand is also robust from the detergent and glass industry. They expect better growth from solar panels to aid demand for the glass industry and thereby soda ash. 

    The company has expansion plans with a capex of Rs 1,100 crore in progress where the capacity of soda ash will increase by 2.3 lakh MT, bicarb by 0.7 lakh MT and salt by 3.3 lakh MT.

    Fund managers who bought shares of Tata Chemicals

    Buyers of Tata Chemicals for respective schemes include Pankaj Tibrewal for Kotak Small Cap Growth, Kayzad Eghlim and Priyanka Khandelwal for ICICI Prudential Equity Arbitrage Fund Regular Growth, Sailesh Jain for Tata Arbitrage Fund Regular Growth and Neeraj Kumar and Arun R. for SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund Regular Growth.

    Interglobe Aviation - Demand for air travel crosses pre Covid levels

    Interglobe Aviation, more commonly known as Indigo is one of India’s low cost carriers (LCC) with a market share of 54% in the Indian aviation sector. 

    The airline industry which was affected badly during the pandemic is now bouncing back in FY23. Indigo operated at a load factor of 80% in Q1FY23. The rising load factor was driven by a strong rebound in leisure & corporate travel. Further, international travel has normalised and has reached its precovid levels. 

    Indigo in September also announced that it has entered freight services. Its first freight plane was one that was converted from a passenger plane. The freight carriers will be able to service markets between China in the east and the Gulf in the west, as well as the CIS countries to the north, according to the management. IndiGo also said it will be utilising the same pool of pilots and engineers that fly and service its current fleet for the cargo planes.

    Fund managers who bought shares of Interglobe Aviation

    Shares of Indigo were bought by Manish Gunwani and Kinjal Desai for Nippon India Growth Fund - Growth, Atul Penkar and Dhaval Gala for Aditya Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96 Pyt of Inc Dis cum Cap Wdrl, Sailesh Jain for Tata Arbitrage Fund Regular Growth and Mahesh Patil for Aditya Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund Growthschemes respectively

    Syngene - New international deal to have significant long term impact

    Syngene International serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, nutrition, animal health, consumer goods and speciality chemical companies globally, with a range of integrated research services for the clinical development and manufacturing process.

    Recently Syngene signed a 10-year biologics manufacturing agreement with leading animal health company, Zoetis. It will manufacture the drug substance for Librela (bedinvetmab), a monoclonal antibody used for treating osteoarthritis in dogs. According to the management, this agreement paves the way for development and manufacturing of other molecules in the coming years and is expected to be worth $500 mn to Syngene over 10 years, subject to regulatory approvals and market demand. 

    Fund managers who bought shares of Syngene

    Addition of shares of Syngene was done to respective schemes by Harish Bihani and Sharmila D’mello for ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund (Tax Saving) Growth and ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund Growth, Gaurav Misra for Mirae Asset Focused Fund Regular Growth, and Pranav Gokhale and Amit GanatraInvesco India Growth Opportunities Fund Growth.

    Hatsun Agro Products - Expansion to a pan India brand drives revenue growth

    Hatsun Agro Products manufactures and markets dairy products  like milk, curd, ice creams, dairy whitener, skimmed milk powder, ghee, paneer and other milk based products. The Q1FY23 results recorded highest ever quarterly revenues at Rs 2,020 crore. This was the result of expanding beyond its stronghold in South India.

    While the company for most of its existence was limited to the southern states, its retail expansion in the last two years helped it reach customers in new markets like Maharashtra, Odisha, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh. Hatsun Agro Products invested about Rs 450 crore in the last financial year across new manufacturing facilities for capacity expansion in ice cream, milk, curd, milk products and cattle feed.

    Fund managers who bought shares of Hatsun Agro Products

    Shares of Hatsun were added by S. Bharath and Ratish Varier to Sundaram Mid Cap Growth, Sohini Andani and Mohit Jain to SBI Magnum Midcap Fund Regular Growth, R. Srinivasan and Mohit Jain to SBI Focused Equity Fund Growth and Saurabh Pant and Mohit Jain to SBI Large & Midcap Fund Regular Payout Inc Dist cum Cap Wdrlschemes respectively.

    Britannia - Management rejig and and international foray key positive triggers

    Britannia, a leading food-products company, sells various brands of biscuits, cakes, dairy products, breads etc. in India as well as globally. 

    The company recently teamed up with Nairobi-based Kenafric Industries to purchase Catalyst Capital-backed Britannia Foods Ltd. in Kenya in a $20 million transaction that also involved acquiring property and a plant, Mikul Shah, a director at Kenafric, said in an interview. Britannia Industries, unrelated to Britannia Foods, took a controlling stake in the partnership.

    The company also saw a change in the top management team with Ranjit Kohli taking over from Varun Berry as the CEO, while Varun Berry was elevated to executive vice-chairman and managing director.

    Fund managers who bought shares of Britannia

    Buyers in Britannia included Sohini Andani and Mohit Jain for SBI Bluechip Fund Regular Growth, Sankaran Naren and Sharmilla D’mello for ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund Growth, Shridatta Bhandwaldar for Canara Robeco Flexi Cap Fund Growth and Neelesh Surana and Ankit Jain forMirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund Growthschemes respectively.

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    The Baseline
    14 Oct 2022
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Campus Activewear: This footwear company touched an all-time high of Rs 617.95 on Wednesday, and gained 59.7% over the past 90 days. The uptick in the stock comes on the back of a robust business outlook. The management believes that the Indian sports & athleisure (S&A) footwear market is underpenetrated, and this provides it with an opportunity to expand.

      Within the retail industry, the footwear segment is expected to be one of the fastest-growing. According to reports, the S&A footwear market in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21%, beating the overall footwear industry’s CAGR of 17% in FY22-25. The optimism around the stock is due to the fact that it is the only listed company in the S&A footwear space in India. As of FY21, the company commanded a 17% market share in the branded S&A market in India.

    The company also performed well in Q1FY23 - its net profit surged 10.9X YoY and revenue jumped 2.5X YoY on the back of sales volumes increasing 2.4X YoY. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company’s net profit to grow by 30.9% in FY23. The company also shows up on the screener which lists businesses with low debt.  

    Campus Activewear’s key advantage is that its average selling price is significantly cheaper than its competitors. According to Motilal Oswal, given its wide product portfolio, competitive pricing, and wide-distribution network the company looks well poised to make massive market share gains.

    1. JSW Steel:This steel stock released its production numbers for Q2FY23, where its crude steel production increased 12% YoY to 5.6 million tonnes but decreased sequentially by 3%. The reduction in volumes QoQ is because of a 73% fall in the production of JSW Ispat Special Products, because of maintenance shutdowns. Also, market conditions are not conducive for the company’s USA unit, and it reported a 48% fall in volumes. The management also says that logistics issues and underutilization of capacity at some plant locations in India are other reasons for a fall in total production levels.

    The company also reports a sharp decline in exports. This is because of the 15%-45% export duty imposed on various types of steel in May. Steel companies were expecting an early end to the export duties levied by the Centre, according to reports, but it looks like they will have to wait until the next Union budget for duty cuts. 

    This is because while steel prices fell in May, June, and July, it started rising again in August, causing a hiccup in the duty cuts as the Centre wants more data to understand the metal’s demand-supply dynamics before making a final decision. Since the demand in the domestic market is low and inventory levels for steel companies are high, the removal of export duty may help steel companies tap into the global markets.

    On the positive side, reports suggest that JSW steel has capex plans worth $1 billion to build a specialty steel manufacturing unit in India in partnership with Japan’s JFE Steel. This will largely help India reduce its import dependency on electric steel.

    In terms of the sector outlook, the Nifty Metal index made it through the ‘golden cross’ on September 22. The golden cross indicates a stock’s  50-day moving average crossing above  the 200-day moving average. This means there is improving sentiment around that stock, or in this case, the Nifty metal index. Reports suggest the Nifty metal index has the potential of rising further by 11%. This could bode well for all metal stocks in the metal universe. JSW Steel shows up on a screener that lists stocks with consistent returns over the last five years.

    1. One97 Communications (Paytm): This internet software company’s stock rose consecutively from September 30 to October 10, until the markets went on a downtrend. The rise comes with JP Morgan maintaining an ‘overweight’ stance on the stock. The brokerage expects the stock to regain its Rs 1,000 mark by March 2023 and expects Paytm’s losses to narrow down in Q2FY23. In terms of business, it expects its annual loan disbursements to reach Rs 29,000 crore with an improved penetration into the market by 4%. It also expects Paytm’s margins to improve and processing costs to rationalise in FY23. In its Q2FY23 business update Paytm did record an increase in its value of loan disbursements by 482% YoY to Rs 7,313 crore. Its monthly transacting users were also up 39% YoY. But asset quality trends on its disbursements are so far unclear. 

    Goldman Sachs also has a positive recommendation for the stock. It expects the stock to go up by 112% in a bull case, which is pretty significant given that the stock is currently trading at 64% below its issue price. 

    Another danger for the stock is the end of the lock-in period on November 18. Given the history of IPOs like Zomato where the stock plunged once its lock-in period ended, Paytm will have to deliver good results to keep up investor faith and may need to plan for an exit strategy like PB Fintech (Policybazaar) where it plans to line up buyers for its shares to avoid a Zomato-like situation, according to reports. Policybazaar’s lock-in period also ends in November. 

    1. TVS Motors Company: The market capitalization of this two-wheeler maker surpassed that of market leader Hero MotoCorp on October 12. This is despite the fact that its net profits in FY22 were only one-third of Hero’s profit figure. The company’s stock also outperformed its industry by over seven percentage points in the past month. 

    TVS Motors’ two-wheeler wholesales have grown at a compounded rate of nearly 10% in the past six quarters, much faster than that of Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto. In fact, its two-wheeler wholesales for Q2FY23 rose in double-digits YoY while others saw a minor fall. Robust domestic sales drove the Q2 volumes for TVS, making up for the YoY fall in exports. Additionally, its focus on premium brands like Apache, Ntorq, and Ronin contributed to its healthy volumes. 

    On the other hand, Hero’s volume growth suffered owing to its reliance on the entry-level segment which basically consists of motorbikes with 100 CC engines. Customers in this segment mainly belong to the rural and semi-urban regions and are highly price-sensitive. Demand from rural parts of India is still muted on account of inflationary pressures.

    TVS Motors has plans to launch new electric two-wheeler models in the coming quarters. It also looks to ramp up the production capacity of its existing electric brand ‘iQube’ to 10,000 units per month very soon and then to 25,000 units per month. K N Radhakrishnan, CEO of TVS Motors, is quite confident of the demand trends in this festive season. According to consensus estimates of analysts, the company’s earnings may jump by over 35% in FY23 backed by strong sales. Investors should also watch out for the possible inclusion of TVS Motors in the MSCI Index from November 2022. 

    1. Sobha: This realty company’s share price fell over 3.4% on Tuesday after it released its September business update. Sobha’s share price fell despite its total sales volume rising 13% YoY in September on the back of increased demand for residential and office spaces in Q2FY23. This was mainly due to a 20% sales volume rise in its Bengaluru market, which contributes over 75% of total volumes.

    The fall in share price could be due to total sales volume declining by 0.9% QoQ. In addition, mortgage rates are rising in line with interest rates since May. The Reserve Bank of India has raised the repo rate by 190 bps since May to 5.9% and is expected to continue with its tight monetary policy. The company’s stock has fallen by around 30% in 2022, underperforming Nifty Realty by nearly 18%. With such a fall in share price, it comes up in the screener that shows companies with weak momentum scores. Notably, Sobha’s promoter pledging increased by 6.6% in Q1FY23 to 20.3%.

    However, ICICI Securities has a positive outlook on the company due to strong H1FY23 performance despite rising mortgage rates and a strong launch pipeline. Post Sobha’s business update announcement, the brokerage retained its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 808, indicating a 26.7% upside. However, the stock is currently in the sell zone as it has traded 86% of the days below its current price-to-earnings ratio. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movement, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    13 Oct 2022
    Chart of the week: SME, Metal, Industrial stocks boost indices over the quarter

    Chart of the week: SME, Metal, Industrial stocks boost indices over the quarter

    By Abdullah Shah

    As anticipation of the result season grows, investors are buying into stocks which are showing potential for growth despite market volatility. We take a look at the indices which have grown the most in the past quarter and the stocks driving this growth.

    The S&P SME BSE IPO rose 58.6% over the last 90 days, the most among all the indices. Shree Venkatesh Refineries, Maruti Interior Products and Ekkenis Software Services rose above 100% in the past 90 days, contributing to the surge in the index. The index has risen 9.3% in the past week, despite the market being volatile and the rupee falling to new lows.

    The Nifty Metal index has also seen a broad recovery in the quarter after being in the doldrums in the past year, as it rose 18.5%. APL Apollo Tubes, Vedanta and Jindal Steel & Power grew more than 20%, helping the index to rise. After already beating Forecaster estimates for revenue growth in Q1FY23, analysts are estimating an average revenue growth of 18.7% in Q2FY23 for APL Apollo Tubes. The Nifty Metal index continued its gains in the past week and is up 0.5%.

    S&P BSE Industrials index comes in third as it rose 17.2% in the past 90 days. Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Electronics and ABB India rose above 25% in the last 90 days, aiding this growth. Bharat Electronics’ forecaster estimates for revenue growth for Q2FY23 is at 24.4% after beating the forecaster estimates for revenue growth in Q1FY23. The Industrials index grew 0.7% in the past week.

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    The Baseline
    12 Oct 2022
    Five analysts make their picks ahead of Q2 results

    Five analysts make their picks ahead of Q2 results

    By Abhiraj Panchal
    1. Relaxo Footwears: Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this footwear brand with a revised target price of Rs 1,185. This indicates an upside of 18%. In H2FY22, the company took cumulative price hikes of 25-30% which affected the sales volume. To arrest the sales volume drop, the footwear manufacturer reduced prices by 12-15% in its key value-for-money brands such as Relaxo, Flite, and Bahamas.

    Analysts at Sharekhan say, “The price corrections undertaken will take some time to come in the market and hence Q2FY23 sales volumes are expected to be muted due to weak consumer sentiment affected by inflationary pressures.” They expect a gradual recovery from Q3FY23. According to the analysts, Relaxo has a strong, debt-free balance sheet with good cash generation ability, and it is on track to achieve revenue and earnings CAGR of 14% and 22%, respectively over FY22-FY25.

    1. Phoenix Mills: ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this retail mall developer with a target price of Rs 1,638, indicating an upside of 13.7%. FY21 and FY22 operations were impacted by mall shutdowns across India owing to successive Covid waves. However, with the waning Covid impact, in Q1FY23 like-to-like consumption across the mall stood at Rs 1,980 crore or 111% of Q1FY20. Analyst Adhidev Chattopadhyay estimates that thanks to  continued consumption strength, “we model for FY23 rental income of Rs 1,370 crore.” 

    Phoenix Mills has nine operational malls and six under-construction malls which are expected to be operational over FY23-26. The estimated capex of these ongoing projects is Rs 9,320 crore, of which pending capex stands at Rs 5,050 crore.  Chattopadhyay adds, “We expect the company to generate annual operating cash flow of Rs 1,400-1,500 crore over FY23-25 which can comfortably fund the balance capex”. 

    He also remains positive on the mall developer due to its strong brand recall and its leadership position among malls across India. 

    1. Divi's Laboratories: Ashika Research recommends a ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical company with a target price of Rs 4,110, indicating an upside of 12.1%. The analysts at the brokerage believe the company is well-placed to benefit from the expected growth in active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) manufacturing. Supply chain issues in China and the China+1 strategy among buyers has provided Indian API manufacturers with a great opportunity to expand, they added. The brokerage believes the firm’s capacity expansion plans and its strong capabilities in manufacturing APIs, intermediates, and active ingredients will enable it to expand its client base and gain market share.

    The analysts also see the company’s generics segment driving growth along with APIs as a key positive. “Divi’s is expected to clock double-digit growth in established generics products where it enjoys market share in excess of 60-70%”, they add. The brokerage expects margin pressure to persist in the near-term but remains positive on the firm’s future growth prospects. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 7% over FY22-24.

    1. Jubilant Foodworks: Bonanza initiates coverage of this restaurant chain company with a ‘Buy’ call and a target price of Rs 891, indicating an upside of 46.6%. “The quick service restaurant (QSR) master chef maintains its ground on the back of strong demand outlook and excellent execution capabilities,” says analyst Shreya Hanchate. 

    Hanchate believes that Jubilant Foodworks is the largest food service brand in the QSR industry and has the benefit of being the first mover. It is also a leading fast-food industry player in terms of the number of stores (1,625 in Q1FY23). The company aims to grow up to 3,000 stores in the medium term. 

    Hanchate says, “The resultant robust performance in Q1FY23, led by strong revenue growth, recovery in growth, and positive expectations from the new brands' portfolio makes Jubilant a hot pick.” On the back of sustained delivery demand, the analyst expects growth in EBITDA and profit margins of 26% and 11% respectively by FY24.

    1. Bajaj Finance: KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this non-banking finance company (NBFC) with a target price of Rs 8,317, implying an upside of 14.8%. Analyst Vikrant Kashyap believes India’s growing housing market will be an important lever of growth for the company. He notes that the NBFC expects its assets under management to grow at an annual rate of 25-28% in FY23. He also believes that future growth will be fuelled by aggressive customer acquisition. He adds, “The NBFC is confident of adding 9-10 million customers by the end of FY23. The firm has been focusing on customer acquisition, which is expected to be its key growth driver”.

    Kashyap expects the company’s position as a market leader in customer finance to bode well for it, as it is well-positioned to capitalise on the demand shift towards premium products across discretionary categories. He is also positive about the company’s ability to increase its presence and improve its technological capabilities. The analyst expects Bajaj Finance’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 41.8% over FY22-24.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    07 Oct 2022
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. APL Apollo Tubes: The stock of this structural steel tube maker gained over 9% ever since it released its business update for Q2FY23 on October 1, 2022. It also touched a 52-week high on Thursday and has outperformed the Nifty 500 index by over eight percentage points in the past week.

    APL Apollo Tubes reported its highest-ever sales volumes in Q2FY23 which were at 6.02 lakh tonnes. The volumes jumped over 40% YoY and sequentially in Q1FY23 led by the ‘Apollo Structural’ product category. Within this category, general structures grew the fastest in this quarter. As a result, share of the value-added segment in APL’s overall volumes fell to 54% in the quarter from 61% in Q1FY23. The management’s medium-term goal is contrary to the actual result. It aims to raise the share of value-added products in its sales volumes to 75% by FY25. Nevertheless, the volume numbers for Q2FY23 are impressive as the company had seen its volume fall by more than 20% QoQ in the previous quarter. This was on account of distributors reducing their stocks as a response to falling steel prices. Back then, the company was confident of clocking one million tonnes of sales in H1FY23. It has comfortably exceeded that target despite Q2FY23 being a seasonally weak quarter for construction given the monsoon season.

    Given the rising applications of steel tubes for construction of airports, warehouses and high-rise buildings, the company aims to clock a volume CAGR of over 30% between FY22 and FY25. Its targeted sales volumes are at four million tonnes for FY25. Its upcoming facility of 1.5 MTPA in Raipur will enable APL Apollo to achieve this growth target. In fact, the company may generate additional volumes of 30 to 40 lakh tonnes from the Raipur plant in FY23. The outlook for APL Apollo is promising with the government’s thrust on infrastructure development. 

    1. Angel One: This brokerage company’s stock rose over 12% on Tuesday after it released its monthly business update. Angel One’s client base rose 77.4% YoY to 1.15 crore in September. In addition, a jump in average daily turnover (ADTO) of Futures and Options (FnO) and commodities segments helped the overall ADTO to increase by 116.4% YoY. With such a rise in share price after the business update, Angel One comes up in a screener that shows companies whose share price is trading above their short, medium, and long-term moving averages. 

    The sharp rise in the FnO ATDO could be due to the volatile nature of the markets. This bodes well for the company as it has a higher dependence on FnO income. Overall, the top five brokerages account for around 58% of the overall NSE active clients with Angel one’s market share at about 9%.

    Though the company posted strong numbers, investors will have to note that trading enthusiasm slows down when markets are in a downturn. This remains a key risk for Angel One. This is reflected in its gross client acquisition, which fell both YoY and QoQ in September. Active users in the industry also fell both in July and August indicating a slowdown. However, the company’s share price is rising ahead of its Q2FY23 results, which is scheduled to be released on October 13. 

    1. VIP Industries: This luggage manufacturer rose more than 7% in intra-day trade on Monday and over the past month, it gained over 18.9% till Thursday. The uptrend in the stock’s price comes on the back of a robust business outlook. The rise in demand for travel this festive season is expected to augur well for the company given its dominant position in the organised luggage industry. The firm commands a market share of 45% in the industry, according to reports. Another key positive for the company has been its focus on increasing revenue from its own manufacturing. In-house manufacturing contributed 64% of revenue in Q1FY23, up from 35% in Q1FY20. 

    Along with improving its manufacturing capabilities, the firm has sharply reduced sourcing finished goods from China in Q1FY23 to 11% from 40% in FY20, according to ICICI Direct. This helps it reduce its exposure to forex fluctuations and disruptions in the supply chain. Over the past year, the company has risen over 40.4% till Thursday and made it to this screener with stocks that have had high returns consistently over the past 5 years.

    The management has targeted annual revenue of Rs 2,000 crore in FY23, given a recovery in demand and a fall in some key raw material prices, according to reports. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates its revenue to grow 32.9% YoY to Rs 1,921.3 crore in FY23, coming in close to the company’s intended target. At the end of FY22, the company had 376 exclusive brand outlets, and by the end of FY23, it aims to increase its retail store network to 500. The firm hopes to achieve this target by expanding into smaller towns in India, and most of these outlets will be opened through a franchise model.

    1. Avenue Supermarts (DMart): This retail chain company rose more than 3% on September 30 after brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher increased its target price for the stock by 16.7% to Rs 5,118. The stock also shows up on a screener where brokers upgraded recommendations and target prices in the past three months. Three brokers upgraded their recommendations while five brokers increased their target price for the stock.

    Prabhudas Lilladher feels that the stores opened by DMart during the pandemic will deliver gains in FY23. It also believes that the company’s current strategy of ‘Everyday Low Prices’ will drive sales in this festive season, beating inflation woes. It also expects ‘Dmart Ready’ - a new venture by the company into door-to-door delivery service - to clock growth in FY23 as its sales almost doubled in FY22. One view of the new venture is that despite heavy competition in this segment, DMart has not structured its model on heavy discounts which generally burns cash flow, resulting in losses. The brokerage expects DMart’s top line to grow by 38% YoY and net profit to increase by 46% in Q2FY23.

    The company recently gave out its quarterly business update. Its revenue is up 35.8% YoY to Rs 10,384.6 crore in Q2FY23. This number is almost double (Rs 5,218.1 crore) of revenue generated in Q2FY21. Although revenue growth is slightly down because of lower rural demand and rising inflation, some segments like apparel and general merchandise are seeing a surge. The company also plans to open more stores and expand geographically in FY23. Analysts expect that Avenue Supermarts’ EBITDA will break even by FY25 if it scales up at a faster pace. 

    1. Blue Dart Express: This logistics company touched its all-time high of Rs 9,640 on Tuesday and rose 9.2% in the past week till Thursday. The stock started its uptrend after the company announced an increase in shipment prices by 9.6% on September 28, effective from January 1, 2023. The management said the price hike will be taken to offset rising input costs, high inflation, and rising interest rates. The surge in share price comes on the back of expected volume growth and market share gains. This is due to its 54% market share in the organised air express market and the ability to deliver to 98% of pin codes in India. The company also shows up on a screener which lists stocks with rising cash flow from their operations in the last two years.  

    The company has been able to maintain its gross margins at 36% in FY22, despite  elevated aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices. Its ability to pass on prices and a 30% surge in volumes during FY22 aided in maintaining its margin, according to Motilal Oswal. Looking ahead, the management wants to expand its ground express segment and increase the segment’s contribution to total revenue from its current levels. This is because it expects the growth in this segment to be 2X the growth in the air express segment, mainly due to cost differential in services. The management also plans to scale up its services in e-commerce as well, as it sees this segment driving growth in the long term.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movement, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    06 Oct 2022, 04:23PM
    Chart of the week: Hong Kong's Hang Seng index falls the most in the past six months

    Chart of the week: Hong Kong's Hang Seng index falls the most in the past six months

    By Abdullah Shah

    2022 has seen rising inflation and interest rates, as well as conflict in Europe. The weakening environment has spooked investors,  resulting in a global sell-off across indices as people hunt for less risky options for their money.

    The Hang Seng index of Hong Kong, China fell 18.4%, the most in the past six months among global indices. The index fell to its lowest level since October 2011. The major reason for this fall is traders selling equities for much safer government bonds, as Covid zero policies and weakening GDP growth discourage investment. 

    The USA’s S&P 500 fell 15.6% in the last six months. Ever since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 bps for the third consecutive time on September 21, the index has taken another plunge and dropped below the lows of June.

    The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 index fell 7.1% over the last six months. The US Fed’s interest rate hikes combined with the UK government’s unfunded tax cuts in its mini-budget have resulted in the British pound falling to its all-time low of $1.038 on September 26. The concerns around the tax cuts fuelling further inflation in the UK has caused investors to pull out of the equity market.

    India’s Nifty 50 index has fared well compared to most other global indices. It has fallen just 2.4% in the past six months. A broad sell-off from foreign investors contributed to this drop. Another reason is the fall of the Indian rupee to its all time low of Rs 81.9 per dollar on September 28. Japan’s Nikkei index has recovered in recent weeks on the back of strong buying from retail investors.

    As we head into the second half of FY23, central banks are likely to further increase interest rates to keep inflation in check. 

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    The Baseline
    04 Oct 2022
    Five analyst stock picks from the banking and finance sector

    Five analyst stock picks from the banking and finance sector

    By Suhas Reddy

    This week, we look at five analyst picks from the banking and finance sector, which has been in the green over the past quarter.

    1. IndusInd Bank: Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,400. This indicates an upside of 19.8%. Analysts at the brokerage believe that “the bank is well positioned to resume on the path of higher credit growth, as it has recovered from past asset quality challenges''. They note that concerns over the bank’s asset quality are fading as its collection efficiencies, liquidity position, and internal costs have been improving for a few quarters. The bank’s credit costs are also expected to fall, and they anticipate a decline of 150 bps annually over FY23-25.

    Sharekhan believes IndusInd’s loan disbursement growth will be driven by its vehicle finance, micro-finance and MSME business segments in the coming quarters. Overall, the company’s growth is expected to be broad-based. The analysts are positive about the firm’s foray into new segments such as NRI banking, tractor finance, and affordable housing. They expect the bank’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of  29.5% over FY22-25.

    1. Star Health and Allied Insurance: Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this insurance provider with a target price of Rs 830. This indicates an upside of 19%. Prayesh Jain and Nitin Aggarwal say, “Star Health outlined strong growth opportunities in the health insurance space in India. After the lifting of COVID-related restrictions, there is growing acceptance of the need for hospitalization, leading to larger customer walk-ins wanting to avail health insurance policies without being prospected.” 

    According to the analysts, the insurance company is planning to expand its presence in rural India by creating a dedicated vertical for addressing demand from these geographies. Jain and Aggarwal expect Star Health to deliver an 18% gross premium CAGR over FY22-25, led by strong growth in retail health insurance and expect claim ratios to improve due to the pandemic receding. They also remain optimistic about the company due to its healthy earnings growth and limited cyclicality risk.

    1. Bandhan Bank: ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank but reduces its target price to Rs 408 from Rs 414. This implies an upside of 54.9%. Analysts Kunal Shah, Renish Bhuva, and Chintan Shah have cut their target price mainly due to the disruptions in collection efficiency and disbursements in Q1FY23. These disruptions were caused by the Assam floods and the revision in RBI regulations. However, they expect a recovery in the bank’s collection efficiency and disbursements in the coming months. They are constructive on mortgage lending growth as well.

    The analysts say the bank is looking to open more than 500 branches in FY23, predominantly outside of its key markets Assam and West Bengal. Given these expansion plans, they expect the bank’s operating expenses to rise but the operating expenses to assets guidance of 2.6-2.7% to be maintained. They also see the firm’s increasing investment in technology as a key positive. They estimate the company’s net profit in FY24 to grow by 24.4% over FY23.

    1. Au Small Finance Bank: Axis Direct retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this small finance bank with a target price of Rs 705, implying an upside of 17.7%. The analysts at the brokerage expect the bank’s strong disbursement growth momentum to continue over the medium term. They see this growth led by vehicle finance, home loans, credit cards, and business banking segments. The bank’s asset quality recovery since the disruptions caused by the pandemic is a key positive. They expect its asset quality to further improve as “the restructured book has been exhibiting strong collection trends and slippages from the pool well below the anticipated levels”.

    The analysts also expect the company’s net interest margin to remain stable despite an increasing interest rate environment. However, operating expenses can increase in the medium term as the firm is investing in expansion and technology. Nonetheless, Axis is positive about the small finance bank’s growth prospects given its stable NIMs and low credit costs, and the analysts expect the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 26.3% over FY22-25.

    1. Union Bank of India: Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this public sector bank with a target price of Rs 50, indicating an upside of 14.8%. After attending the Union Bank’s thematic investor day on asset quality, Nitin Aggarwal, Yash Agarwal, and Vinayak Agarwal say, “The bank has segregated and shifted the loan portfolio to dedicated verticals, which focuses on marketing and general servicing.” The bank has opened 250 retail loan points, 125 MSME loan points, mid-corporate branches, and 13 large corporate branches to primarily focus on specific loan segments. 

    The analysts note, “The bank saw recoveries of Rs 3,800 crore and is on track to achieve total recoveries of Rs 15,000 crore in FY23.” For FY23, they expect GNPA and NNPA to be at 9% and 3% respectively, and expect the slippages to moderate to less than 2%, with a credit cost of less than 1.7%. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    01 Oct 2022
    Festival season boosts travel, jewelry, paint sectors; stocks flying high in a volatile market

    Festival season boosts travel, jewelry, paint sectors; stocks flying high in a volatile market

    By Deeksha Janiani

    For a time, it was good: optimistic growth predictions for India helped drive a market rally over the past three months. But the world is becoming sharply volatile, and multiple global factors are now rocking the boat. Russia's gas cutoff has caused an energy crisis in Europe, threatening a deep recession, and US Fed Reserve Chairman Jay Powell announced an interest rate hike of 75 bps on September 21.

    Higher US interest rates have made US treasury assets more attractive, and foreign investors renewed selling Indian equities. The "fear index" Nifty Vix is back up to June levels.  

    However amid this gloom, the Indian consumer story is a bright promise. Indians are preparing for get-togethers and celebrations, with big spending plans this festive season.

    In this week’s Analyticks:

    • Festive plans cheer travel, home improvement and jewellery sectors
    • Screener: These stocks are holding steady, with high-momentum and strong EPS growth predicted in FY23

    Let’s get into it.


    The great Indian festival season is here: What’s in store for tourism, home improvement and jewellery?

    The Indian festive season kick-started with the arrival of Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam in August-end. Now, it’s in full swing with the onset of Navratri. For the first time in two years, people will be able to gather for the Garba Utsav without restrictions - no mandatory masking, no one checking your Covid certificate at the door, no limits on the number of people.

    Indians are itching to get into their party clothes, and are ready to loosen their purse strings. According to a survey undertaken by LocalCircles, consumer spending during the festive season is expected to hit $32 billion this year, higher than both 2020 and 2021. Although this is below the pre-Covid level (2019) of $37 billion, this will boost India Inc in an otherwise inflationary and tough global environment. 

    24% of respondents in this survey plan to spend on travel and tourism in this season - the highest among all categories. Jewellers and home improvement players will also see the benefit of higher consumer spends. 

    Hotels and Tourism sizzle, as consumer segments come alive

    When the worst of the pandemic got over in March 2022, short-haul travel became the top priority for millennials. Businesses also restarted events and conferences as employees were back in offices. 

    By the summer of ’22, there was high traction visible across both leisure and corporate travel segments. The occupancy rates and revenue per available room of the hospitality sector crossed pre-pandemic levels in Q1FY23 thanks to the demand rebound in metros. 

    According to the management of Indian Hotels, robust demand especially in the corporate segment continued in July and August, despite the seasonal weakness. Now, with consumers willing to spend more on travel, the demand outlook from September to November also looks strong. 

    Traveller mix shifts towards richer Indians

    Overall festive spends this year are being driven by higher income groups, as they saved a lot of money in the work-from-home era, according to LocalCircles.

    This may also be true for the travel sector.

    Let’s consider some hard facts here: the traveller mix is changing. In Q1FY23, the premium chains of Indian Hotels like ‘SeleQtions’ and ‘Vivanta’ saw over20% growth in occupancies while mid-segment chains like ‘Ginger’ fell 11% compared to pre-covid levels.

    The overall occupancy level of a mid-segment hotel chain like Lemon Tree has been consistently lower than that of premium and luxury players like Indian Hotels and EIH in the past three quarters. Clearly, higher price inflation has impacted the discretionary spends of middle-income groups, while the affluent class is relatively unaffected. 

    Foreign travellers will also drive demand for hospitality and recreational sectors in H2FY23. According to a RateGainreport, foreign tourist arrivals in Delhi and Mumbai are likely to see double-digit MoM growth between September and November owing to the festivities and a favourable climate in India. 

    These demand trends bode well for an online travel agent like Easy Trip Planners. This travel startup has showcased consistent profitability in the past 10 quarters despite the pandemic. This was achieved on the strength of its ‘no convenience fee’ model and easy refunds policy. The company now looks to double its gross booking revenue to Rs 6,500-7,000 crore in FY23 and makes a good proxy play in the travel sector. 

    Enthused by the current travel boom, hotel chains have drawn up ambitious expansion plans. Indian Hotels looks to add 18 hotels in its portfolio this year while Lemon Tree seeks to complete a major hotel project in Mumbai. 

    According to Trendlyne Forecaster’s consensus estimates, annual revenues of the top three listed hotels will jump by over 60% YoY in FY23 with all of them returning to profitability. 

    Jewellery makers sparkle on lower gold prices, healthy demand

    Women customers have also made a comeback - retail sales of jewellery have grown in double-digits in the past four months, backed by the correction in gold prices. This trend is likely to continue in the coming months as the peak festive season has begun, which will be followed by the wedding season. According to C K Venkataraman, Managing Director at Titan, the affluent class has amassed a lot of wealth in the pandemic years and are now ready to spend on high value items.

    The period from Navratri upto Diwali is an auspicious period to buy jewellery in India. In order to leverage this, Tanishq, a brand owned by Titan, has launchednew collections like ‘Zoya’, ‘Aishani’, 'Chozha' and ‘Alekhya’. This is also in line with the company’s strategy to cater to more regional tastes to capture higher market share. 

    Kalyan Jewellers aims to spend Rs 250 to 300 crore to open 10 stores across Delhi, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa and Chhattisgarh by this Diwali. Meanwhile, Titan aims to launch 50 Tanishq stores in FY23 to meet rising demand. The revenue of both these players is set to jump over 20% in FY23 with profits rising faster. 

    Paint companies are all set for a 'double delight' 

    Another major beneficiary of this festive season will be the home improvement sector, as people repaint and refurbish their houses for Laxmi Pooja. Paint makers like Asian Paints and Berger Paints already witnessed robust sales volumes in Q1FY23, backed by premium and luxury products. Such strong demand trends will continueinto Q2FY23 with the early onset of Navratri. 

    Demand growth is coming with lower costs - a double delight for paint companies. Pressure on the gross margins of these companies have eased up thanks to the 27% correction in crude oil prices since May 2022. Analysts predict oil prices will zoom back up towards the end of the year as China comes out of lockdowns, but Q3FY23 may still see the double benefit of low input costs and high demand. This is why analysts predict these companies’ net profit rising more than their revenues in FY23.

    However, Kajaria Ceramicsis likely to suffer margin compression on account of higher natural gas prices. Nevertheless, the tile-maker is positive on the demand front and is putting up new capacities in the sanitaryware and bathware segments. 

    Hopes are high for a bumper festive season across consumer facing sectors in India. The promise is clear: let's see which companies are able to make the most of it. 


    Screener: Stocks flying high in a volatile market, with medium to high momentum score and rising EPS forecasts

    With the result season just around the corner, we take a look at stocks which have a medium to high momentum score, with high EPS growth forecasts. This screener consists of 34 companies within the Nifty 500 index. The companies belong to industries like telecom services, realty, non-alcoholic beverages, two-wheelers among others.

    Major stocks featured in the screener are Bharti Airtel,Phoenix Mills, Adani Enterprises, Varun Beverages and Eicher Motors. Bharti Airtel has the highest annual EPS growth forecast of 237%. According to Prabhudas Lilladher, the telecom company’s customer focused strategies along with digital investments has helped increase revenue and subscriber market share. It has a Trendlyne momentum score of 60.7, indicating that it has high buying interest and improving sentiment.

    The second highest annual EPS growth forecast is for Phoenix Mills. The company saw a 316% rise in its annual EPS in FY22. According toICICI Securities, the realty player has a strong pipeline of projects which will aid its bottomline growth. It has a Trendlyne momentum score of 61.8.

    Analysts see Eicher Motors clocking an EPS growth of over 65% in FY23. Axis Securitiesbelieves that lower commodity prices, improving demand and easing of supply-side constraints will aid its earnings growth. 

    Varun Beverages has a healthy EPS growth estimate of 88% for FY23. The demand outlook for this Pepsico franchise is strong given that its juices, energy drink and dairy segments are performing well,and it is expanding into newer markets.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    30 Sep 2022
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Nestle India:The foreign parent of this FMCG major is set to invest Rs 5,000 crore in the business over the next three years, a significant ramp-up compared to its investment of Rs 8,000 crore made over the last 60 years. The stock rose nearly 3% after Nestle S.A.’s CEO Mark Schneider made this announcement in a press conference on September 23.

    Given the sheer size of the investment vis-à-vis the previous commitment, India has clearly become an important emerging market for Nestle. The CEO highlighted that the company was facing a difficult situation globally on account of runaway inflation. India, on the contrary, appears to be in a bright spot owing to its rising middle-class population and increasing per-capita income levels.

    According to Suresh Narayanan, Chairman at Nestle India, the investment outlay will be spent across new growth opportunities in the nutrition segment, including plant-based proteins and healthy snacking. The Maggi maker may look to acquire companies present in this segment. Additionally, the capex will be utilized in developing the emerging categories of pet care and toddlers’ snacks. The pet care market size is roughly Rs 4,000 crore in India and growing at a CAGR of 20-25%. Given the fresh capex, Nestle India will be able to take on Hindustan Unilever. It has some catching up to do here – HUL has actively invested in building its health and nutrition segment since FY20, notable investments, being the acquisition of Horlicks and Boost brands.

    Investors need to watch for Nestle India’s margins in upcoming quarters as they were under pressure owing to input cost inflation. In a major relief, the prices of edible oil and packaging material softened over the past few months. However, wholesale prices of wheat and milk continue to trend higher. 

    1. Torrent Pharmaceuticals: This pharma company’s stock fell over 5% intraday on Wednesday after it announced the acquisition of Curatio Healthcare for Rs 2,000 crores. Expensive deal valuation could be the reason why the acquisition did not excite investors. Torrent Pharma acquired Curatio at a costly valuation of 8.2 times enterprise value/trailing twelve months sales (EV/TTM sales). For reference, recent deals by big players in the pharma industry have an average of 4.2 EV/sales. In addition, the management in the analyst call on Tuesday said that 75-85% of the Rs 2,000 crore price tag would be funded by debt. This comes at a time when Torrent Pharma was reducing its debt and the stock comes up in a screener that lists companies that are decreasing leverage. 

    Curatio derives over 82% of its revenue from the dermatology segment with cosmetic dermatology as the leading contributor. Over the last decade, cosmetic dermatology as a therapy grew at 18% CAGR, which is comfortably higher than the Indian pharmaceutical market’s (IPM) growth. Curatio’s revenue grew 25% YoY in FY22 after two years of stable sales and the management guided for 24% revenue growth from the Curatio portfolio in FY23, and expects to sustain this level going forward. 

    Brokerages like ICICI Securities and Prabhudas Lilladher kept their ‘Buy’ rating on Torrent Pharma, indicating an upside of over 15%. The brokerages have a positive outlook on the company as the deal allows it to foray into the high-growth cosmetic dermatology segment. 

    1. Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC): This insurance stock is falling in trade for the last five sessions, hitting all-time lows almost every day. It touched an all-time low of Rs 618 on Thursday, which is 29% lower than its issue price. The stock was also trading below its second support or S2 level on Tuesday. It also shows up on a screener of stocks with low to medium Trendlyne Momentum Score. 

    Ever since its listing, LIC’s share price has been on a declining trend. Reports suggest that LIC’s declining market share and its dependency on the age-old, somewhat outdated model of agents as its biggest distribution network is a dampener in terms of growth. However, in its annual general meeting on Tuesday, LIC’s Chairperson M R Kumar said that the company is devising strategic changes in product mix and distribution channels to enhance growth and improve market share. The plan is to shift the product mix towards non-participating products, increasing this to 12-15% in the next 3-4 years. In non-participating products the profits and dividends are not shared with the policyholders, making it lucrative for insurance companies to sell such policies. M R Kumar also says that in the ‘LIC 3.0’ version the company plans to close Q2FY23 with increased market share and better technological processes to match the competitors.

    LIC has also been making changes in its holdings. On Tuesday it announced the acquisition of an additional 2% stake in Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) over a period of 9 months (December 28, 2021 to September 26, 2022). LIC now holds a 9% stake in BPCL. On Wednesday it announced a significant stake reduction in Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals to 3.96% from 6.05% from April 8 to September 27. This transaction amounts to nearly Rs 133.9 crore. Possibly with these new changes, LIC may be able to adapt to the shifts in the market, the rise of digital channels and increasing interest rates affecting people’s investment choices.

    1. Power Grid Corporation of India: This power stock fell nearly 8% in trade on September 23 after reports of it buying shares of Power Finance Corporation (PFC) - a subsidiary of Power Grid, from Rural Electrification Corporation (REC). This suggests that Power Grid is getting into the business of financing power projects where its competence is limited. According to reports, this would cause the company’s dividend yields to drop to 4%.

    However, on Tuesday the Centre rejected REC’s proposal to sell PFC’s stake to Power Grid. This drove the stock to rise 3% in trade on Tuesday in an otherwise volatile market. Foreign brokerage Citi gave a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock on a stable business outlook, high market share and better RoE. The stock also shows up on Trendlyne’s screener of companies with improving RoE over the past two years.

    The company’s board also approved a power transmission project costing Rs 327.7 crore, on Monday. The project will connect Jamnagar Oil Refinery of Reliance Industries with Jam khambhaliya ISTS PS. 

    Energy indices like BSE Power and Nifty Energy have been up for the past three months. Jefferies in its report says that it is bullish on the power sector and predicts decade-long growth. It also expects power stocks to improve their renewable energy capacity by 82% to 305 GW till FY30E. Power Grid is among Jefferies’ top picks from the sector. Trendlyne’s consensus recommendation also shows 17 analysts recommending a ‘Buy’ on the stock. 

    1. KPIT Technologies: This IT Consulting & Software company rose 14.6% over the past month, outperforming the Nifty 500 index by 18.2% till Thursday. This rise comes at a time when most IT companies are falling given the high inflationary environment. The Nifty IT declined by 6.5% over the past month as of Thursday. 

    The surge in the stock was triggered by its acquisition of four Technica group companies in the automobile software and electrical space. The firm expects this acquisition to improve its scale of operations. The acquisition will cost the company a fixed consideration of 80 million euros, and a maximum variable payment of 30 million euros. Post the completion of the acquisition in October, the Technica group will be fully owned by the firm. 

    The management believes that the acquisition will improve KPIT’s EPS upon consolidation and increase revenue by at least 10% by the end of FY24. It may raise its revenue guidance upon completing the acquisition, according to reports. In July, it had given a revenue guidance of 18-21% for FY23. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates KPIT Tech’s revenue to grow 6.1% QoQ to Rs 727.2 crore. The stock also shows up on a screener which lists companies with revenue increasing sequentially for the past four quarters.

    The company expects to maintain its margin guidance for FY23 as well, according to reports. It says there is no slowdown in demand as its Europe business vertical is not impacted by the macroeconomic tailwinds yet. Its Europe business segment was the largest contributor to revenue in Q1FY23, accounting for nearly 30% of revenue.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movement, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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