New Research Reports

HPCL reported better than expected Q4FY25 earnings, with SA EBITDA/PAT of Rs57.3/33.5bn – at a sizable beat, driven by better-than-expected GRMs as well as marketing margins.

Q4FY25 consolidated revenue of Rs. 37,825 crore was up 1.1% y-o-y. Volume and realization growth were both tepid and almost flat y-o-y. The volume growth has been slow overall due to increase in captive consumption of coal.

COAL reported a strong quarterly performance, with Q4FY25 EBITDA at Rs132.9bn (+2.5% vs Emkay; +17.3% vs consensus). The performance in Q4 profitability is on the back of better-than-expected e-auction premiums, lower employee cost, and lower reversal from stripping activity.

We retain the BUY rating.

IOCL’s 4QFY25 EBITDA was a 110% beat on est., driven by higher-thanestimated GRM (USD8/bbl) as well as marketing margins (INR5.9/lit). With tax rate coming in below est., resultant PAT stood 5x above est. at INR72.6b.

BPCL delivered a 46% beat on EBITDA in 4QFY25, driven by higher-than-estimated GRM (USD9.2/bbl) and marketing margins (INR5.9/lit; INR 0.3/lit due to inventory gain).

BPCL’s Q4FY25 performance was much better than expected. SA EBITDA/APAT was down 15%/18% YoY to Rs78.1/45.5bn, albeit at a significant beat, driven by reported GRM of USD9.2/bbl (Emkay: USD6/bbl).

Black & White

Suspension of Indus Water Treaty to accelerate NHPC projects

Our recent interactions with industry participants and defense consultants focused on the need to put defense and aerospace projects on a fast track, the potential bidders for future tenders for MRFA, the potential impact on the overall defense budget kitty if such large deals were to go through.

Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) is a market leader in aerospace defense. It boasts a strong order book of INR1.8t as of 31st Mar’25, along with a promising prospect pipeline of INR6t, which is likely to be awarded over the next few years.

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has clocked revenue of INR 304bn in FY25 (vs INR 303.8bn in FY24).
Revenue was ~6% below our estimate of INR 322.4bn, mainly because of shortfall in delivery of ALH-Dhruv and other manufacturing revenue.

Power Grid has won 11 TBCB projects after the Q3FY25 results and the company maintains a strong win ratio (>50%) in its projects. The company is on track for a large capex of Rs. ~3.3 lakh crore till FY32 because of the strong renewable energy capacity addition in India.

GAIL’s Q3FY25 result disappointed the street, with multiple one-offs dragging trading segment earnings and reigniting the long-held apprehension on the unpredictability of trading segment.

GE Aerospace has delivered the first of 99 (nos.) F404-IN20 engines to HAL for Tejas Mk 1A. We see this is a vital development that allays execution risk concerns. At Aero India, HAL expressed confidence in receiving 12 (nos.) F404- IN20 engines for the LCA Mk 1A this year.

In the last five-and-a-half months, GAIL’s share price has corrected ~30% with the stock now trading at 9.2x FY27E P/E. We maintain our positive outlook on GAIL.

The power demand in YTDFY25 (till February) is up only 4.4% y-o-y because of the impact of the monsoon this year and weak economic activity. However, with a hot summer expected this year and temperatures expected to rise, power demand should pick-up.