373.00 -5.00 (-1.32%)
NSENov 27, 2020 03:31 PM
The 33 reports from 12 analysts offering long term price targets for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. have an average target of 439.40. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 17.80% from the last price of 373.00.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-11-02||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||SMC online||348.85||348.85 (6.92%)|
Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (BPCL) Q2, Profit turns sweeter after cost-cutting measures, improvement in refining margins BPCL consolidated net sales fell 23% to Rs 49408.6 crore for the quarter ended Sep20 compared to corresponding previous year period. This included nil subsidy from the...
|2020-11-02||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||346.40||446.00||346.40 (7.68%)||19.57||Buy|
Bharat Petroleum Corporation- 2QFY21 Result Update- Valuation attractive despite concerns - upgrade to Buy
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We raise BPCL rating to Buy with our PE-based unchanged target price (TP) of Rs446, which offers about 29% upside from the CMP post the recent 14% correction in the stock. The results imply a 36.5% beat on PAT at Rs23.72bn. During the results call, the BPCL management said that the crack spreads remain weak though they are better than 1QFY21. MS/HSD demand this month has improved to catch up with year-ago levels vs. 38%/68%/85% of year-ago levels in April/May/June'20. The PAT beat resulted from refining inventory gains of Rs13.03bn vs. our estimate of Rs4.96bn and large inventory gains of Rs24.5bn in aggregate (including Rs11bn in marketing vs. our aggregate gain estimate of Rs680mn). Reported GRM came in at US$5.8/bbl,...
|2020-10-30||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||346.40||479.00||346.40 (7.68%)||28.42||Buy|
We increase our FY21E earnings estimates by 45% to incorporate inventory gains of Rs30bn in H1FY21 and make minor changes and increase FY22-23E by 5%. During Q2FY21, core standalone EBIDTA adjusted for inventory gains and forex gains was low at Rs12.5bn (-63%QoQ) due to lower core refinery...
|2020-10-30||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||354.45||480.00||354.45 (5.23%)||28.69||Buy|
|2020-10-30||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Sharekhan||366.30||495.00||366.30 (1.83%)||32.71||Buy|
Q2FY2021 adjusted operating profit at Rs. 4,485 crore/ Rs. 2,581 crore, up 101%/46% y-o-y) was above ours and the street's estimates due to higher-than-expected inventory gains at Rs. 2,453 crore, better volumes and lower interest costs. A sharp beat in reported GRM at $5.8/bbl (up 71.6% y-o-y) led by refinery inventory gains of $4.3/...
|2020-10-26||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Edelweiss||346.10||386.00||346.10 (7.77%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-08-21||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||410.10||471.00||410.10 (-9.05%)||26.27||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd is one of India's leading oil & gas companies. It operates refineries located in Kochi, Mumbai, Bina and Numaligarh. The company's marketing infrastructure consists of...
|2020-08-17||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||407.90||417.00||407.90 (-8.56%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We cut BPCL rating to Accumulate with our PE-based unchanged target price (TP) of Rs417, which offers limited upside from the CMP. We maintain our earnings for FY21E/22E despite the 38% beat on 1QFY21 standalone PAT at Rs20.8bn as the refining outlook remains uncertain, although marketing earnings looks healthy. During the results call, the BPCL management said that the current crack spreads are EBITDA negative for refining, forcing it to cap operations at 75% of capacity. MS/HSD demand has improved to 90% of year ago levels in August'20 vs. 38%/68%/85% in April/May/June'20. The PAT beat resulted from aggregate inventory gains of Rs5.65bn vs. inventory loss of Rs4.47bn as per our estimate...
|2020-08-17||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||SMC online||402.30||402.30 (-7.28%)||Results Update|
Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. reported Sales volume down 32% and operating profits rose 43% to Rs 4259.87 crore, in line with estimates BPCL consolidated net sales fell 50% to Rs 37999.25 crore for the quarter ended June20 compared to corresponding previous year period. This included nil subsidy from the government compared to subsidy of Rs 139.22 crore. Excluding compensation from the...
|2020-08-15||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||HDFC Securities||413.25||445.00||413.25 (-9.74%)||19.30||Accumulate|
Our price target comes to INR 445/sh (6.0x Mar-22E EV/e for the standalone refining and marketing businesses, 6.5x Mar-22E EV/e for the pipeline business, and INR 132/sh for other investments). The stock is currently trading at 6.3x on FY22E EPS. We maintain ADD on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) with a price target of INR 445, owing to an expected recovery in demand for petroleum products and, subsequently, refining margins. 1Q reported EBITDA and APAT were 28% and 41% below estimates due to (1) 22% higher-than-anticipated RMC at INR 306bn, (2) 12% lower domestic marketing throughput at 7.5mmt, and (3) 92% lower reported GRM at USD 0.4/bbl, partly offset by 23% higher marketing margin of INR 7/ltr. Reported EBITDA came to INR 39bn (vs. EBITDA of INR 22bn YoY and an operating loss of INR 17bn QoQ). Crude inventory losses were INR 4bn (HSIE gain of INR 10bn) and product inventory gains were INR 10bn (HSIE INR 28bn). Forex loss stood at INR 570mn (HSIE 0). Adjusting for these, core EBITDA stood at INR 34bn (HSIE INR 16bn), +31/-23% YoY/QoQ.
|2020-08-14||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Motilal Oswal||407.90||424.00||407.90 (-8.56%)||Target met||Neutral|
14 August 2020 Reported EBITDA was higher than est. INR25.2b and INR21.5b in 1QFY20), led by lower other expenditure. Opex decreased in INR terms and stood roughly at ~USD2/bbl during the quarter. Inventory gains for the quarter stood at INR5.6b (on refining loss of INR4.4b and marketing gains of INR10b). Adj. for inventory, EBITDA stood at INR34.1b (v/s INR26b in 1QFY20). The company reported forex loss of INR0.6b.
|2020-08-14||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||412.45||515.00||412.45 (-9.56%)||38.07||Buy|
We maintain our FY21/22 earnings estimates. During Q1FY21, core standalone EBIDTA adjusted for inventory gains and forex loss was healthy at Rs34.0bn (+31%YoY) despite lower refining margins ($0.4/bbl vs $2.8/bbl in Q1FY20). Weak global demand and high inventory levels will likely keep crude oil prices range bound, thereby supporting marketing margins in medium term. Meanwhile GRMs will also recover with pickup in economic...
|2020-06-08||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||SMC online||381.50||381.50 (-2.23%)||Results Update|
|2020-06-08||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Edelweiss||394.10||407.00||394.10 (-5.35%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-06-05||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||IDBI Capital||369.60||418.00||369.60 (0.92%)||Target met||Buy|
BPCL Q4FY20 result was impacted negatively by higher inventory losses (Rs49 bn) and higher forex loss (Rs12 bn). Adjusting to that, result is largely in line with consensus estimates. Reported GRM came at US$0.5/bbl whereas core GRM came at US$7.7/bbl owing to higher discount and better diesel cracks. Demand for petroleum products also improved 67% MoM in May'20 and now just 30% YoY down. Also, refinery is now running at 83% utilization which was 63% and 77% in Apr-May'2020. We expect GRM of US$2/bbl and US$4/bbl in FY21 and FY22 respectively while marketing margin to remain stable on a YoY basis. We forecast EBITDA/PAT of Rs92/34 bn in FY21 and Rs127/56 bn in FY22...
|2020-06-05||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||369.60||417.00||369.60 (0.92%)||Target met||Buy|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We maintain Buy on BPCL with a target price (TP) of Rs417 (+16.8% to CMP), which we have arrived at based on 7x PE on FY22E EPS (based on past average). This follows our earnings revision - cutting FY21E/FY22E earnings by -48.3%/-12.42% post the 4QFY20 results call with BPCL management. The standalone 4QFY20 results were a miss vs. our estimates - adjusted loss of Rs2.8bn vs our PAT estimate at Rs2.49bn. This was due to a steeper inventory loss of Rs49.02bn vs our estimate of Rs34.5bn. The reported inventory loss includes exceptional loss of Rs10.8bn attributed to the impact of lockdown on crude and products inventory. BPCL reported a 4QFY20 loss of Rs13.61bn, including this exceptional item. Reported GRM came in at...
|2020-06-04||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||ICICI Securities Limited||357.25||350.00||357.25 (4.41%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
A sharp reduction in oil demand owing to Covid-19 outbreak resulted in a significant drop in crude oil prices. As a result, average Brent crude oil prices declined by US$12/bbl QoQ to US$50.6/bbl with closing Brent price at US$21.5/bbl. On account of the same, the company reported marketing inventory loss of | 1937 crore. However, core marketing margins were steady during the quarter. In terms of marketing sales, BPCL reported degrowth of 5.5% YoY (mainly due to diesel sales decline) to 10.7 MMT, above our estimates. Going forward, we expect marketing sales volume to improve at 5.1% CAGR in the next two years. Crude throughput in Q4FY20 was up...
|2020-06-04||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||369.60||515.00||369.60 (0.92%)||38.07||Buy|
BPCL with a fully integrated operation remains a prized asset and we expect aggressive bidding by global majors when divestment process kicks in. We marginally tweak our FY21/22 earnings estimates. During FY20, core EBIDTA adjusted for inventory loss was healthy at Rs130bn (+14%YoY) despite lower refining margins ($2.5/bbl vs $4.6/bbl in FY19). Sharp drop in...
|2020-06-04||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||Motilal Oswal||369.60||425.00||369.60 (0.92%)||Target met||Neutral|
4 June 2020 BPCL posted an EBITDA beat in 4QFY20 on better-than-expected reported GRM counterpoised with marginally weaker marketing margins. However, refining throughput (+2% YoY) and marketing sales (-5% YoY) were in line with our estimates. The company has confirmed that throughput ramped up to 83% after a dip to ~63% in Apr20 for all group refineries. Sales demand has also revived and is now 30% lower YoY (up from being ~55% lower in Apr20). Due to slim possibility of a divestment in these circumstances, we maintain a Neutral stance on BPCL. Also, we do not see much upside despite the expected divestment. Reported EBITDA came in higher than est. at INR5.9b (-87% YoY) owing to better-than-expected refining margin. Inventory loss for the quarter stood at INR49b (refining at INR29.6b and marketing at INR19.4b). Adj. for the same, EBITDA came in at INR54.9b.
|2020-06-04||Bharat Petroleum Cor.. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||369.60||470.00||369.60 (0.92%)||Target met||Buy|