The 25 reports from 9 analysts offering long term price targets for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. have an average target of 374.14. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 13.60% from the last price of 329.35.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2019-08-19||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||SMC online||347.00||347.00 (-5.09%)||Results Update|
BPCL consolidated net sales rose 6% to Rs 76325.39 crore for the quarter ended June 2019 compared to corresponding previous year period. This included subsidy from the government of Rs 139.22 crore down 44% on a y-o-y basis. Excluding compensation from the government sales of the company rose 6% to Rs 76186.17 crore. OPM of the company fell 250 bps to 3.9%. As a result operating profits fell 35% to Rs 2981.84 crore. Cost of material consumed as a percentage to net sales (net of stock adjustments) fell 30...
|2019-08-14||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||IDBI Capital||354.45||412.00||354.45 (-7.08%)||25.09||Buy|
BPCL Q1FY20 result was a miss to our forecast on EBITDA and PAT front owing to higher inventory loss. Revenue was up 6.4% YoY to Rs763.2bn, EBITDA/PAT was down 43.7%/53.1% YoY to Rs21.8bn/Rs10.7bn respectively. Reported GRM came at US$2.81/bbl whereas core GRM came at US$3.6/bbl which was in-line to our forecast. We have cut our EBITDA forecast for FY20E by 10% to factor in high inventory loss whereas we have kept our EBITDA forecast for FY21E unchanged. We continue to maintain our TP of Rs412 based on 7x on EV/EBITDA. Upgrade to BUY from HOLD due...
|2019-08-14||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||Nirmal Bang Institutional||354.45||343.00||354.45 (-7.08%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We are upgrading BPCL from Sell to Accumulate after a 14% increase in TP to Rs343 based on 7.2x FY21E post marginal earnings changes after the 1QFY20 results call with management. We still have concerns on the refining business outlook given the volatility in oil prices and GRMs and currency. But, these concerns in our view are in the price following the near 9% fall in the stock from a year ago. The catalysts include the following: (i) Likely easing of pain on refining on company specific factors, including additional margins on 0.5mn tpa of propylene being produced in its Kochi Refinery, (ii) Management's retail strategy to take on private competition aimed at market share gains of 200 bps. The company is counting on its superior retail network...
|2019-08-13||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||HDFC Securities||343.10||434.00||343.10 (-4.01%)||31.77||Buy|
For BPCL, core GRMs are expected to improve further by USD 0.5 to 1.0/bbl by FY22E on account of gradual increase in share of heavy and cheap crude at its Kochi refinery.Additionally, restoration of marketing margins as elections have concluded is a key positive. Our SOTP target is Rs 434/share (5.5x Jun 21E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.0x Jun 21E EV/e for marketing, and pipeline business and Rs 129/sh for other investments). Maintain BUY. Inventory losses and shutdown of BPCLs refinery has resulted in a muted 1Q performance. However, we maintain our BUY owing to its impeccable refining assets and healthy free cash flows (Rs 66.55bn) over FY21-22E.
|2019-08-13||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||343.10||280.00||343.10 (-4.01%)||14.98||Sell|
|2019-08-13||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||Motilal Oswal||343.10||465.00||343.10 (-4.01%)||41.19||Buy|
BPCL reported a GRM of USD2.8/bbl, lower than our estimate of USD3.0 and USD7.5 in 1QFY19. Consequently, EBITDA was down 53% YoY/QoQ at INR21.5b, despite a decline of INR1.6b in other expenses. Adj. EBITDA was up 37% YoY at INR26.0b, with the refining inventory loss at INR1.3b and the marketing inventory loss at INR3.3b. Forex gain was at INR0.3b for the quarter (v/s a loss of INR7.1b in 1QFY19 and a gain of INR2.8b in 4QFY19). Reported PAT was at INR10.8b (-53% YoY). BPCL has reported first-quarter earnings based on Ind-AS 116. Depreciation...
|2019-08-12||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||Reliance Securities||346.45||330.00||346.45 (-4.94%)||Target met||Sell|
Despite good performance in marketing segment, Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) has reported weak operating performance in 1QFY20 with EBITDA falling by 44% YoY and 55% QoQ to Rs21.8bn (in line with our estimate) led by lower refining throughput and margin. It reported a GRM of US$2.81/bbl in 1QFY20 vs. US$7.49/bbl in1QFY19. We believe 4% YoY fall in crude throughput was mainly due to Mumbai refinery upgradation for BS-VI fuel. Its net profit declined by 53% YoY and 66% QoQ to Rs10.7bn (11% above our estimate) mainly due to higher interest cost (+50% YoY and +28% QoQ). Notably, its debt increased by Rs15.5bn sequentially. Further, adoption of Ind AS-116 resulted into net Rs520mn decrease in PBT. In Jul'19, benchmark complex...
|2019-08-12||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||ICICI Securities Limited||346.45||355.00||346.45 (-4.94%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
The correction in oil prices led to super-normal marketing margins for OMCs in Q4FY19, which led to lower margins QoQ. However, on an absolute basis, the marketing segment reported a stable performance in Q1FY20. We expect similar profitability from this segment in coming quarters. In terms of marketing sales, BPCL reported growth of 1.3% YoY to 11.1 MMT, below our estimates on account of lower-than-expected LPG and diesel sales. Going forward, we expect marketing sales volumes to grow at 3.5-4.5% CAGR over the next two years. The crude throughput in Q1FY20 was higher...
|2019-05-27||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||SMC online||401.90||401.90 (-18.05%)||Results Update|
10 bps to 38.1%, other expenditure decreased 10 bps to 5.5%, staff cost remained flat at 1.4% and purchase of stock in trade decreased 40 bps to 48.7%. Other income rose 27% to Rs 1057.61 crore. Interest cost rose by 61% to Rs 352.58 crore. Depreciation rose 23% to Rs 914.88 crore. PBT was up 27% to Rs 4595.14 crore. Effective rate...
|2019-05-21||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||HDFC Securities||375.35||409.00||375.35 (-12.26%)||Target met||Neutral|
We expect BPCL's core EBITDA (adjusted for inventory and forex gains/losses) growth to lag peers' in the absence of refining capacity expansion. Besides, the interest cost will increase as a consequence to jump in debt. We downgrade to NEUTRAL with a SOTP target of Rs 409/sh (5.5x Mar 21E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.0x Mar 21E EV/e for marketing and pipeline businesses plus Rs 129/sh for other investments). We like BPCL owing to its impeccable refining assets. However, it is in the weakest spot among OMCs, with no refining capacity addition in foreseeable future and increase in interest cost on account of increasing debt. Hence, we downgrade to NEUTRAL.
|2019-05-21||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||IDBI Capital||375.35||412.00||375.35 (-12.26%)||Target met||Buy|
BPCL's Q4FY19 result was a beat to our forecast owing to strong marketing profit and inventory gain. Revenue was up by 13.4% YoY to Rs739.9bn, EBITDA/PAT was up 29.1%/16.9% YoY to Rs48bn/Rs31.2bn respectively. Core GRM remained weaker like other OMCs, in line with our expectation, at US$2.6/bbl vs US$5.6/bbl in Q4FY18. We are still awaiting for the turnaround in GRM at Kochi terminal as FY19 GRM of US$3.6/bbl was lower than Singapore benchmark. We introduce FY21 financials and roll over our valuation which gives a new TP of Rs412. As the stock has already given 17%...
|2019-05-20||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||Motilal Oswal||392.00||452.00||392.00 (-15.98%)||37.24||Buy|
forex gain of INR2.8b, as against a gain of INR0.5b in 4QFY18 and INR1b in 3QFY19. PAT came in at INR31.2b (+17% YoY; 40% beat). Core GRM stood at USD2.6/bbl (our estimate: USD3.0; 4QFY18: USD5.6; 3QFY19: USD6.0). Core GRM was higher at Mumbai (USD3.03) and lower at Kochi (USD2.14) refineries. Refinery throughput of 8.2mmt (+5% YoY, +10% QoQ) was in line with our estimate. Implied marketing margin, inclusive of inventory gain, was at an all-time high of INR6.5/liter (v/s INR4.6 in 4QFY18 and INR2.9 in 3QFY19). Net of...
|2019-02-12||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||SMC online||339.30||339.30 (-2.93%)||Results Update|
610 bps to 41.6%, other expenditure decreased 150 bps to 4.5%, staff cost fell 20 bps to 1.1% and purchase of stock in trade decreased 20 bps to 51.8%. Other income rose 36% to Rs 967.19 crore. Interest cost rose by 69% to Rs 336.9 crore. Depreciation rose 15% to Rs 778.14 crore. PBT was down 81% to Rs 589.51 crore. Effective...
|2019-02-11||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||HDFC Securities||334.00||338.00||334.00 (-1.39%)||Target met||Neutral|
We maintain NEUTRAL. BPCLs 3QFY19 EBITDA came in at Rs 7.37bn, down 76.9% YoY and 69.5% QoQ, primarily due to Rs. 33.33bn of inventory losses, partially offset by Rs. 6.59bn of forex gains. Adjusting for inventory losses and forex gains, core EBITDA was Rs 34.11bn up 140% YoY and 78.2% QoQ. Operationally, it was a strong quarter with core GRM (excluding inventory losses of USD 3.27/bbl) at USD 6/bbl vs USD 5.73/bbl in 3QFY18.
|2019-02-11||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||Nirmal Bang Institutional||334.00||300.00||334.00 (-1.39%)||8.91||Sell|
Bharat Petroleum Corporation- SELL- 3QFY19 Result Update- Weak GRM Induced-EBIT Loss Turns Into Profit With Higher ...
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Weak GRM Induced-EBIT Loss Turns Into Profit With Higher Other Income SELL Bharat Petroleum Corporation or BPCL's reported earnings of Rs4.9bn in 3QFY19 were down 76.9% YoY and 59.4% QoQ. The key reasons are: 1) Decline in gross refining margin or GRM from US$7.89/bbl in 3QFY18 and US$5.57/bbl in 2QFY19 to US$2.78/bbl in 3QFY19. 2) Interest expenses at Rs3.4bn, rose 2.8% QoQ and 68.3% YoY. However, EBIT-level loss was converted into profit by: 1) Growth in other income to Rs9.6bn a rise of 79.8% QoQ and 33% YoY. 2) Decline in other expenses to Rs33.6bn a fall of 30.5% QoQ and 7.2% YoY. 3) Sharp decline in the tax rate to 16% in 3QFY19 from 35% in 2QFY19 and 29% in 3QFY18. We...
|2019-02-11||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||ICICI Securities Limited||334.00||320.00||334.00 (-1.39%)||Target met||Hold|
|2019-02-11||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||IDBI Capital||334.00||395.00||334.00 (-1.39%)||Target met||Buy|
BPCL's Q3FY19 results were a beat to our estimates on all front on the back of better sales volume, forex gains and more than expected core GRM. While revenue was up 30.6% YoY to Rs791bn, EBITDA/PAT both declined by 76.9% YoY to Rs7.3bn/Rs4.9bn respectively mainly due to huge inventory losses. Crude throughput/sales volume grew marginally by 3%/2% YoY to 7.5mmt/11.5mmt. Reported GRM stood at US$2.8/bbl while core GRM came at US$6.0/bbl in Q3FY19 vs US$4.9/bbl in Q3FY18. We are raising our SOTP based target price to Rs395 from Rs348 earlier on the back of strong...
|2018-10-31||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||IDBI Capital||274.00||333.00||274.00 (20.20%)||Target met||Buy|
BPCL's Q2FY19 results were below our estimates due to lower sales volume coupled with lower inventory gains of Rs14.3 bn and higher forex losses of Rs9.3 bn. Revenue was up 35.6% YoY to Rs723 bn while EBITDA/PAT declined 31%/48% to Rs24/12.2 bn. Crude throughput grew by 8% while sales volume declined 2.8% YoY to 10.1mmt (-10.6% QoQ). Core GRM fell to US$3.3/bbl while reported GRM declined 30% YoY to US$5.6/bbl. We expect GRM expansion at Kochi to kick-in post ramp up of Propylene Unit to feed its upcoming Petchem facility from FY20. We are raising our exchange rate assumption to Rs70 from Rs68 for H2FY19 and FY20. We are cutting our TP to Rs333...
|2018-10-30||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||HDFC Securities||265.90||323.00||265.90 (23.86%)||Target met||Buy|
Our SOTP target is Rs 323/share (5x Sep 20E EV/e for standalone refining, marketing, and pipeline business and Rs 124/sh from other investments). We maintain BUY. BPCLs 2QFY19 EBITDA came in at Rs 24.2bn, down 31.4% YoY and 37.6% QoQ, majorly due to forex losses and lower GRMs. The company made forex losses of Rs 9.3bn owing to depreciation of rupee (~4.6% QoQ and ~9% YoY). Core GRM was down 20% QoQ to USD 3.3/bbl owing to shutdown of Hydrocracker unit at their Mumbai refinery.
|2018-10-30||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||HDFC Securities||265.90||265.90 (23.86%)||Results Update|
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Q2FY19 results Comment Revenue grew by 0.83% to Rs. 72291.82 Cr in Q2FY19 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it rose by 35.55% when compared with Q2FY18.