January & February witnessed reasonable growth due to inventory build-up at the dealer's level. In March, the company is expected to be impacted negatively by the lockdown situation across states. Standalone sales for the last 10 days fell 10% YoY due to shutdown...

We are upgrading Mahanagar Gas (MGL) from Sell to Accumulate with our revised DCF-based TP of Rs752 (+6% from CMP), assuming regulated tariff, post the 32% crash in the stock in the past three months. We have cut our FY20-22E estimates by 2.3%/14.9%/15.9% based on tempered volume assumptions for the twin impact of COVID19 and the slowdown. We see decline of 2.5% in 4QFY20 that could spill over into 1HFY21, with the growth likely to revive over the next 6-12 months. We still have concerns over the potential transition to 20% open access for MGL's Mumbai franchise, which could pose the risk of attrition in CNG and Industrial market share to the extent of 20%. Our upgrade to Accumulate is based on the following: (i) the moderately favorable...

We are upgrading Indraprastha Gas (IGL) from Sell to Buy based on 41.3% upside from CMP to our revised DCF-based TP of Rs431, assuming regulated tariff, post the 30% correction in the stock from three months ago.The new TP includes Rs52/sh we estimate for the new CGD areas (GAs) under development. We have cut our FY20-22E estimates by 1.9%/16%/15.2% based on volume and margin assumptions tempered for the twin impact of COVID19 and the slowdown. We see moderation in IGL's city gas volume growth in 4QFY20 to 9% vs 13.4% in 3QFY20, implying nil growth in March 20. Further we could see nil growth in 1HFY21~with contraction of 6% likely in 1QFY21E, if the COVID...

The transaction is subject to fulfilment of certain conditions and both companies would be working together to complete this in the next few months. Glenmark, however, will continue to manage the business until the...

We will be reviewing our numbers and recommendations once we have a better understanding of the Covid-19 situation. ICICIGI: GDPI (ex-crop) increased 13.3% YoY to Rs 10.4bn. Growth momentum (ex crop) improved from -2.0/12% YoY seen in Dec-19/Jan-20. Health and Motor OD business reported growth (ahead of industry) of 12.4% and 12.7% respectively. FY20TD GDPI for ICICIGI stands at Rs 125.7bn (-7.5% YoY), with ex-crop GDPI is healthy at Rs 121.7bn (+13.9% YoY). We have a SELL on ICICIGI with a TP of Rs 1,170 (Mar-22E P/E of 26.0x and a P/ABV of 5.7x). ICICIGI is currently trading at a FY21/22E P/E of 26.6/22.3x and P/ABV of 4.9/4.0x. NIACL: GDPI grew to Rs 19.3bn, +24.2% YoY (ex. crop at Rs 18.6bn, +26.0% YoY) led by growth primarily in health business. Growth in retail business segments such as motor TP/health improved moderately to 20.7/30.3% YoY. FY20TD GDPI for NIACL stands at Rs 246.9bn (+15.6% YoY), ex-crop GDPI at Rs 219.1bn (+12.7% YoY). We have a SELL on NIACL with a TP of Rs 130 (0.65x Mar-22E ABV (less 5% discount for expected 10.4% supply). NIACL is currently trading at a FY21/22E P/E of 7.4/6.2x and P/ABV of 0.4/0.4x. Bajaj Allianz General Insurance (BAGIC): GDPI slipped by 1.4% YoY in Feb-20 to Rs 7.0bn, (ex-crop GDPI at Rs 6.6bn +1.6% YoY) led by sharp decline in crop business (-32.2% YoY). Motor OD GDPI declined 8.6% YoY vs. industry decline of 2.7% YoY. FY20TD GDPI for BAGIC stands at Rs 120.5bn (+20.1% YoY), while GDPI (ex-crop) is Rs 89.4bn...

Amber Enterprises is a leading solution provider for Air conditioner OEM/ODM Industry in India. It caters to 8 out of top 10 AC brands AC brands in India which together have 75%+ market share in India. Amber also manufactures AC/NON AC components in its endeavour to be a total solutions provider.

Owing to recent correction we upgrade ORL from ADD to BUY. We have cut FY21/22E EPS by 12.1/21.8%. Reduce our NAV based TP to Rs 543/sh. Risks (1) Prolonged COVID impact (2) Sharp correction in property prices. We interacted with the management of Oberoi Realty Ltd (ORL) to assess the impact of COVID. Some obvious concerns viz (1) Residential demand (2) Site labour availability (3) Capex on ongoing real estate assets (4) Impact of Mall closure & (5) Status of new launches are addressed in this note.

Bata India Ltd (BIL) is the largest retailer and leading manufacturer of footwear in India with ~1400 retail stores as on Dec 2019. We revise our Target to Rs.1,400 (earlier Rs1,850) factoring the demand weakness due to COVID-19 epidemic, but upgrade to Accumulate rating considering the recent sharp fall in stock price....

total 27. Whereas other key markets like US, South America and UK hasn't seen any shutdowns so-far. We believe, significant correction presents an opportunity to buy this stock at an attractive valuation at 11x FY21 estimates. We upgrade the stock to BUY (from Accumulate) with lowered fair value to Rs115 (from Rs153) led by earning cuts and lower 16x multiple (from 18x) to...

The spread of Covid-19 has led to lockdowns in many countries globally and could have adverse economic implications. In addition, the recent fall in crude prices could also have an adverse impact of fiscal health of oil producing countries. As a result, IT companies, which have considerable exposure to verticals such as oil, energy & utilities; banking & capital markets; manufacturing and travel & transport could see an adverse impact from the ongoing crisis. Companies like Wipro, Infosys in large cap and MindTree, NIIT Tech, Sonata software, Cyient, Accelya Solutions among...

The spread of Covid-19 has led to lockdowns in many countries globally and could have adverse economic implications. In addition, the recent fall in crude prices could also have an adverse impact of fiscal health of oil producing countries. As a result, IT companies, which have considerable exposure to verticals such as oil, energy & utilities; banking & capital markets; manufacturing and travel & transport could see an adverse impact from the ongoing crisis. Companies like Wipro, Infosys in large cap and MindTree, NIIT Tech, Sonata software, Cyient, Accelya Solutions among...

The spread of Covid-19 has led to lockdowns in many countries globally and could have adverse economic implications. In addition, the recent fall in crude prices could also have an adverse impact of fiscal health of oil producing countries. As a result, IT companies, which have considerable exposure to verticals such as oil, energy & utilities; banking & capital markets; manufacturing and travel & transport could see an adverse impact from the ongoing crisis. Companies like Wipro, Infosys in large cap and MindTree, NIIT Tech, Sonata software, Cyient, Accelya Solutions among...

Robust Performance on Steady Realisation & Cost Benefits JK Cement (JKCE) continued to report a strong set of numbers in 3QFY20 amid challenges as its reported EBITDA grew by a strong 42% YoY to Rs2.78bn broadly in-line with our estimate. Unitary EBITDA for grey cement stood at Rs770 vs. Rs433 in 3QFY19 and Rs824 in 2QFY20. While sales volume of grey cement, including clinker, grew by 3.5% YoY, average realisation came in at Rs4,355/tonne (+10% YoY and -2.5% QoQ) broadly in-line with our estimate. Operating cost/ tonne declined by 1.5% QoQ to Rs4,404 despite sequential rise in input cost. JKCE noted that continued high cost of fuel inventory from RIL did not let the benefit of lower fuel prices reflect in...

Revenue from pharma business grew by 3% YoY. Notably, the segment recorded its highest therapies i.e. antihypertensive, cardiovascular, oncology and corticosteroids etc. The company also has a strong pipeline of approvals and visibility to maintain growth momentum. Segmental EBIT grew by 20% YoY in 3QFY20, and we expect similar growth in 4QFY20E as well. Specialty Chemical Biz Slight Decline in Margin...

Strong Operating Performance despite Dismal Show by Power Division Shree Cement (SRCM) has reported a strong operating performance in 3QFY20 albeit missing our estimates. EBITDA grew by 20% YoY to Rs8.5bn (vs. our estimate of Rs9bn), while EBITDA/ tonne remained strong at Rs1,365/tonne vs. Rs1,067 in 3QFY19 and Rs1,451 in 2QFY19. Sales volume grew by 5.3% YoY to 6.25mnT, while average realisation stood at Rs4,512/tonne (+4.6% YoY and -3% QoQ) slightly below our estimate of Rs4,540. Operating cost/tonne for cement declined by 3% YoY and 1.7% QoQ to Rs3,147 (-3% YoY and -1.7% QoQ) mainly led by steep decline in input cost/tonne entailed by reduction in fuel cost. However, its power division has...

The U.S sales grew 62% YoY (16% QoQ) during the quarter, with the move to front end sales paying dividends. Other regulated markets saw 54% in YoY growth in revenue, led by...

UPL Ltd. is a global agricultural solutions company engaged in the agrochemicals and industrial chemicals business with manufacturing sites across the world. Through recent expansion, the company has become a...

LG Balakrishnan & Bros (LGB) is India's leading Manufactures in 2Wchain transmission (Drive chains) and sprockets with a domestic market share of 75% and around 50% in replacement market. LGB to benefit from the new capacity addition and its strong client base. We expect the revenue from Transmission to grow by 11% and factor 8% revenue CAGR over FY20E-22E owing to subdued growth from metal forging business Q3FY19 revenue de-grew by 7%YoY due to flat growth from the chain transmission segment and 33%YoY from the metal forming...

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INFOE: On a slippery slope initiate with SELL. Monthly Eco Chartbook: RBI's rate cut to support growth. Inflation and IIP: Inflation falls, growth rebounds. Balance of Payments: Favourable outlook on CAD