We largely maintain our FY21/22 EPS estimates and our SELL recommendation with a DCF-based TP of Rs. 1,800/sh (earlier Rs 1,750), implying ~36x FY22 EV/EBITDA. Note: TP change is a function of roll-over to Jun-21. D-MARTs high exposure to some of the most impacted districts of India is likely to keep both throughput and GMs/EBITDAM under pressure as essentials remain high in revenue mix until Sept-end. To add to the woes, DMART may also have to continue contending with rising cost of retailing, led by higher (1) hardship allowance to front line staff and (2) store sanitation costs.

We have revised our estimates to factor in lower C-I and higher other income. We beleive inadequate CAR and high moratorium will weigh on the stock. We recommend a Sell with a TP of Rs 40 (0.22x FY22E ABV).

Avenue Supermarts (DMART) 1QFY21 result was operationally in-line while PAT was better than expected due to higher other income. Store shutdowns, restrictions on selling high-margin non-essential products and strict social distancing norms inside the stores contributed towards dismal performance in Q1FY21. Online sale remain strong as customers preferred safety and convenience. Adding 2 stores of size 1 lakh sqft each is departure from DMART's usual strategy of opening 40-50k sqft size stores. Large-size stores should ideally be more profitable if the company maintains its usual inventoryturnout of 14x.Given the strength of DMART's balance sheet with Rs 29bn unutilized money from QIP, it would be opportune time to bargain real-estate and further...

We believe headwinds are not fully priced into current rich valuations (51.3x Mar-22E EPS). Maintain SELL with TP of Rs 755/sh. Key takeaways from ABBs CY20 AR are as follows: (1) The share of exports in the revenue has grown from 11% to 18% over CY17-19; (2) Switchgear/Electrical Control, Supply/Motors, and other machines delivered robust CY17-19 revenue CAGR of 14/19/34% and contributed 31/24/19% to CY19 revenue (cumulative revenue mix of 74%); (3) net cash status of Rs 16bn. With clients conserving capital and global growth outlook bleak, new capex/opex headwinds remain. ABBs performance is highly sensitive to demand outlook. A challenging 2QCY20 with slow ramp-up in revenue will limit further re-rating.

As a result, revenue witnessed a 34% drop and estimated same-store sales growth (SSSG) fell -55%; the closure of the margin-accretive non-food section dragged down gross margins by ~220 bps, translating to 81% YoY decline in EBITDA. DMarts consolidated revenues fell 33% YoY to INR39b (6% below est.) on sales of mostly essential products witnessed at DMart stores and many stores remaining shut in the initial phase of the nationwide lockdown. Gross profit fell 42% YoY (in-line) and gross margins (GM) contracted 220bps YoY to 14.2% (90bp below estimate). This is attributable to the high- margin General Merchandise and Apparel sections of retail stores being closed during the lockdown and stores in some areas (with high local restrictions) continuing to operate sales only for essentials items. Subsequently, loss of INR3b in gross profit directly impacted EBITDA, which fell 81% YoY to INR1.1b (28% below est.); EBITDA margins contracted 740bps to 2.

We maintain REDUCE on TCS We maintain REDUCE on TCS, following a miss on 1Q revenue/margin, offset by improving outlook. Valuations at >1SD more than adequately factor in the recovery trajectory, although the improving near-term visibility could keep the stock price elevated. Key positives include the following: (1) growth recovery is expected from 2Q (reversal of supply dent ~150bps); (2) BFSI vertical resilience is supported by strong deal wins (book-to-bill at 1.33x ex-Standard Life) and pipeline; (3) recovery trajectory is expected in continental Europe; (4) the companys strong cash generation is supported by a stable DSO in a tough quarter. Key concerns include: (1) recovery lag in Retail & CPG vertical (sub-vertical impact), manufacturing vertical, and (2) UK geographys performance (BFS weakness). Our target price of Rs 1,980 is based on 21x FY22E (+2% increase in EPS estimate).

technology access may not be as big a barrier to competitors (KOEL, Mahindra, and Perkins), end markets may not be strong enough to absorb such steep price hikes (similar learning from the earlier transition from CPCB-I to CPCB-II), the implementation date is set as July 2021, which may be pushed by six to nine months, especially given the COVID- 19-led disruption. However, the key end markets Manufacturing, Real Estate, Retail, and Hospitality are likely to remain under pressure, with a sluggish growth outlook over the next two years. Even the transition to CPCB-II met with a similar fate, with an anticipation of pre-buying, followed by price hikes, and hope of earnings growth. Given the weak outlook for the end markets and limited pricing power in the Gensets industry, we refrain from being bullish on CPCB-IV opportunities. Currently, macro headwinds remain too strong for the industry to witness double-digit growth on a sustainable basis in the domestic market.

Outlook and Valuation: While we believe that these are a positive development for INFOE, we continue tobelieve that the core/standalone business of the company is expected to suffer in thenear term as the growth prospects of the company are closely linked to GDP growth ofthe company.

We expect demand recovery from 2Q-3Q, supported by (1) strong digital playbook, (2) recovery in deal contracting with increase in consolidation deals (advantage Indian Tier-1s) as enterprises consolidate their tech portfolio, and (3) tech budget normalisation in 2Q for impacted verticals. Following -1.5/-6.0% QoQ in 4Q20/1Q21E, we have factored -0.6/+1.5/+2.8% QoQ in revenue over 2Q-4Q21E. The IT sector margin is expected to decline 95bps QoQ. Profitability is expected to be impacted by lower utilisation, pricing, cross-currency (GBP), lower forex gains and should be offset by (1) INR depreciation, (2) lower travel and discretionary spend, (3) deferral of wage increase and variable payouts cuts/deferrals, and (4) lower sub-contracting. We expect the margin trajectory to bottom out in 2Q. Subsequent margin recovery is premised on (1) demand recovery leading to utilisation recovery (onsite utilisation to precede offshore), and (2) continuity in optimal SG&A, including travel and sub-contracting rationalisation. IT sector (coverage universe) is expected to post -6.1/-3.7% QoQ/YoY in 1QFY21E revenue with cross-currency impact of -15 to -70bps QoQ. We expect Tier-1 IT revenue to decline between 5% and 9% QoQ while Tier-2 IT is expected to display a wider divergence (-2 to -14% QoQ). COVID-related economic impact on sectors like travel and transportation, O&G;, retail & CPG (discretionary) will be accentuated in 1Q (dual impact of price/volume cuts and deal deferrals/cancellations), while BFSI, healthcare, retail & CPG (non-disc.) and hi-tech verticals will be more resilient (deal-deferral impact, but resilient on pricing/volume).

Outlook and Valuation: We downgrade our revenue estimates for FY21E by 5.9% to Rs. 60.3 bn dueto downgrade in Customs Synthesis and Generics business due to no revenueguidance provided by the management.

Outlook & Valuation: We downgrade our revenue estimates by 7.5% for FY21E to Rs 169.6 bn on accountof downgrade across regions while we introduce FY22E revenue estimates atRs 186 bn.

Valuation and Risks: We downgrade our Revenues by 4.4% / 4.8% for FY21E / FY22E due to downgrade across regions.

Tata Steel (TATA) reported Q4FY20 EBITDA above our/consensus estimates by 12%/8% at Rs46.5bn (up 48% QoQ/down 38% YoY), led by higher than expected earnings in TATA Steel Europe (TSE). While, Indian operations reported earnings in line with our expectation. Stock moved up ~20% over last couple of months in light of improvement in global prices (up 15% from bottom), low input prices and gradual recovery in domestic demand. However, we expect prices to weaken in H2CY20 due to ease in China's pent-up demand and sharp increase in Chinese steel...

We reduce our revenue estimates by 20.1%/ 8.5% for FY21E/ FY22E on account of lockdown due to covid-19. We factor EBITDA loss in H1FY21E leading to reduction in EBITDA margin estimates by 712/ 19 bps for FY21E/ FY22E to 4.9%/ 12.0%. Accordingly, we drastically reduce our PAT estimates by 95.1%/ 13.2% for FY21E/ FY22E. We...

We maintain our REDUCE rating with a TP of Rs 136, as we believe that RBK faces challenges on both sides of the b/s- potential stress from high unsecured loan exposure and a weak deposit franchise. Key takes from RBKs FY20 AR are as follows: (1) The share of top 20 depositors increased 40bps to 18.8% despite the ~1% (and ~8.1% QoQ in 4QFY20) fall in overall deposits. AR commentary indicates that the bank continues to focus on bulk deposits. (2) The bank appeared to have made some progress on asset-side granularity and this appears to be the focus, which is desirable in context of FY20 asset quality trends. (3) Borrowings from institutions and agencies and the RBI contributed to a majority of incremental borrowings, and overall borrowings grew at ~4x total assets. (4) Segment-wise asset quality data was in line with expectations. These disclosures concur with our stance on the bank.

We value Emami at 17x on FY22E EPS and arrive at a TP of Rs 207. Maintain REDUCE. Emami's 4QFY20 performance was disappointing as the co registered a 17% yoy decline in consolidated revenues. Boroplus, Male Grooming and Kesh King saw sharp revenue decline of 77/42/26% yoy. 4Q performance was impacted by weak category growth (even prior to Covid-19) and lockdown. Emami continued to gain market share in most of its portfolio. Co could not react fast enough to cut costs, resulting in EBITDA contraction of 36% yoy with EBITDAM declining by 569bps yoy. Co is now focusing on strategic launches and relaunches in hygiene and healthcare to drive revenue growth. Benign commodity inflation and expected savings of Rs 500-600mn from cost saving initiatives in FY21 could see margins expand for the co. However, Emami's portfolio is discretionary in nature and we expect recovery will take slightly longer than other FMCG cos. Hence, we cut EPS estimate by 6% for FY21E/FY22E.

Background: Emami is a FMCG company with niche focus on relatively under penetrated segments such as antiseptic cream, fairness cream, talcum powder, cooling oil, pain balm and pain reliever. Emami's power brands such as Navratna Oil, Boroplus Cream, Zandu & MenthoPlus Balm, Fair & Handsome, Boroplus Powder, Navratna Cool Talc, Fast Relief, SonaChandi & Zandu accounts for 75% of company's sales. Emami sales have grown at a CAGR of 38.5% (FY2010-20)....

Background: Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc (USA) to manufacture and distribute Jockey brand in India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE till 2040. They broadly operate in premium men's innerwear; women's innerwear and leisure wear segments. Jockey enjoys high brand recall and they spend ~5% of their annual sales for brand building and promotional activity, which enables them to dominate most of the segments in which they operate. They are also exclusive licensee of Speedo swimwear brand in India. Page has network in ~250 cities and ~760 exclusive brand outlets in India. They...

It has expanded its dealer network to 11200 from 10500 last year, while also developing suppliers, sourcing 78% of its needs from local suppliers/MSME. They have bolstered their board strength with senior industry people like BP Rao, ex CMD, BHEL and SS Mundra, ex DY Governor, RBI as replacement to board members completing terms. Interestingly, employee strength fell 12%, from 6,536 to 5,781- the first time in 5 years, after a CAGR of 13% from FY16-19, as part of its delayering and cost rationalization. Further observation is that per employee cost (Emp...

Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF) 4QFY20 performance was weak. A sharp decline in domestic M&HCV; sales adversely affected its domestic revenue (-54% YoY). Export revenue also plunged 40% YoY, driven by slowdown in the Class 8 truck segment. EBITDA margin contracted 363bps YoY to 16.5%, due to a negative operating leverage, while PAT (reported loss Rs 63mn) was suppressed by a higher depreciation and interest cost. The company is in the midst of a demand slump in the domestic CV and...