Another Stable Quarter Amidst a Sluggish Environment HDFC Bank reported a healthy set of numbers in 2QFY20 with NII and net profit growing by 15% and 27% YoY respectively. Gross NPAs was stable sequentially at 1.38%, with slippages contained at 1.8% (annualized) for the quarter. CASA grew by a healthy 15% YoY, with 13% YoY growth in SA deposits. High growth in employee expenses at 23% YoY was mainly owing to rise in emp base and higher gratuity related provisions. Fee-based income grew by a healthy 23% YoY, with 26% growth excluding MF distribution fee. Loan growth during the quarter was driven by home, agri and corporate loans. The lending subsidiary, HDB Financial Services, continued...

Completely defying the realisation challenges witnessed in 2QFY20, Shree Cement (SRCM) has reported a super performance in 2QFY20. While EBITDA zoomed by a stellar 62% YoY (-6% QoQ) to Rs8.4bn (vs. our estimate of Rs6.7bn), cement EBITDA/tonne stood at strong Rs1,451 (Rs314 higher than our estimate) as against Rs946 in 2QFY19 and Rs1,443 in 1QFY20. Higher than expected EBITDA/tonne is attributable to: (a) Rs100 lower opex/tonne than estimated; and (b) Rs213/tonne higher realisation than estimated. Sales volume remained soft as per expectations at 5.72mnT (+1.5% QoQ and -5.5% QoQ), while average cement realisation improved by 9% YoY (-1.1% QoQ) to Rs4,356/tonne despite having significant presence in Eastern region. Cement...

LTTS continues to outperform ER&D peers, even as near term growth has slowed. We believe this has more to do with macros, and reckon that LTTS is reasonably resilient with its relatively stronger technical capabilities, diversified vertical mix and niche position in Process Industry and Industrial products. We build USD rev/EPS to post 11.5/14.5% CAGR over FY19-22E. That macros can play a bigger spoilsport than now is the only risk. We maintain BUY on LTTS despite the EPS downgrade (~5%) on weak near-term outlook (2Q nos were in-line). While relative outperformance continues, deceleration in growth trajectory limits our optimism. Our TP is Rs 1,705, based on 18x Sep-21E (20x earlier).

We recommend BUY with a SOTP based TP of Rs240. We value ACEM's standalone cement biz 11x its Jun-21E EBITDA and its 50% stake in ACC at a 20% holding disc. While ACEM's upcoming expansions would not arrest market share, robust profitability has made its valuations attractive. The stock currently trades at 10.5/9.2x its CY20/21E EBITDA and at an EV of USD 120/MT. We recommend a BUY on Ambuja Cements with a TP of Rs 240 (SOTP based). In 3QCY19, strong pricing more than offsets weak demand. Thus, standalone net sales/EBITDA/PAT rose 1/23/31% YoY to Rs 26.26/4.40/2.35bn respectively.

LTI's strong pedigree is reflected in its (1) Broad-based vertical presence (and sub-vertical strategy) with marquee accounts, (2) Strong client mining programs and large deal portfolio, and (3) Leading margin/return metrics vs. peers. Client specific challenges (in BFS and Hi-tech) have probably troughed and large deal trajectory is expected to improve growth momentum hereon. Our revenue/EPS CAGR over FY19-22E is ~10/8%. The stock is not inexpensive at 16.9x FY21E, but we believe LTI has the pedigree to command higher valuations as earnings growth becomes more visible. We maintain BUY on L&T; Infotech (LTI) following an in-line rev/margin performance and unchanged est. Large deal wins, deal ramps and reduction in client-specific challenges provide growth visibility (2H acceleration). Our TP of Rs 1,845 is based on 18x Sep-21E EPS.

Mastek has been strengthening its executive team, three new additions in past eight months. We believe these are strategic initiatives for driving growth. We like Mastek's initial success in recovering US business and managing the Brexit uncertainty. Mastek will benefit (margin lever) from the off-shoring opportunity (~USD 20mn) arising with UK public sector given its long term relationship with UK government and limited competition from Indian IT. Brexit deal is positive but we would wait for further clarity to bake in our estimates. We expect GBP growth for FY20/21/22E at 0.1/9.6/11.0% and 5.4% EPS CAGR for FY19-22E. Mastek's stake in Majesco US (Rs 94/sh) and net cash (~Rs 79/sh) protects downside. We maintain BUY on Mastek despite slight miss on revenue and margins. Brexit deal announcement is positive but we do not build any optimism in our estimates and will wait for clarity. We cut our EPS est. by ~5% for FY21E. SoTP based TP of Rs 505 implies 9x Sep-21E EPS plus Rs 94/sh for 12% stake in Majesco US.

The company is also a major beneficiary of the recent corporate tax rate cut (FY19 tax rate ~36%) which would improve its profitability and increase the free cash flow generation. The company is expected to utilise the incremental free cash flows towards higher brand investments and...

Supreme is one of the largest plastic processor in India with manufacturing capacity of ~ 6 lakhs tonnes. It has four business division namely Plastic piping division, Industrial products, Packaging products and consumer furniture segments. Supreme Industries is one of the largest PVC pipe and consumer furniture companies with organized market share of ~14% and 26% respectively. Further, Supreme's plastic piping division (contributes ~58% in topline) grew at CAGR of ~15% during FY11-19 (against Industry growth of ~12%) led by sustained demand of pipes from housing and...

The recent tax cut by the government from 33% to 25.2% is likely to boost earnings of Kansai Nerolac (Kansai) by 3% and 6% for FY20E and FY21E respectively. We change our earnings estimates and target price accordingly. We believe a tax cut would help demand revival in both decorative and industrial paint demand (with revival in automotive industry). This would also help organised players to gain market share from the...

High concentration to rural to drive future growth Dabur derives 40-45% of revenue from rural sales vs 35% for the industry, which has led the company to grow at 20% sales CAGR over FY09-14 period. However, rural slowdown due to GST and demonetisation over last 4 years has resulted in a tepid topline growth of ~4% in the last 5 years. Though high base in FY19 and recent rural slackness may impact company's performance in FY20, we remain positive on long term growth prospects for Dabur. We believe that government would increase its measures to improve...

PVR reported yet another strong quarter with robust box office performance boosting the topline and bottomline show. Footfalls came in at 29.3 mn, up 25% YoY and much better than our estimate of 20% growth with box office revenues at | 492 crore, up 31.6% (our estimate was 25% growth), The SPH at | 99, grew by 11% YoY, resulting in 38% growth in F&B; revenues. Advertisement revenues grew by 15.6% YoY (ex- SPI, growth at ~8.9%), better than our expectation of overall growth of 12% YoY. EBITDA (without impact of Ind AS116) came in at | 194.4 crore, up 56.8% YoY, and much...

Federal Bank Ltd is a major Indian commercial bank in the private sector headquartered in Kerala having 1,251 branches and 1,942 ATM/ Recyclers and a loan book size of ~Rs116,000cr. A muted sequential growth in interest income due to the decline in the yield on advances from 9.55% in Q1FY20 to 9.33% in Q2FY20. Business growth was moderate at 17%, with advances and deposits growing at 15% & 18% YoY respectively. The provisions slightly increased on a YoY basis and the bank has...

After a relatively steady show over the trailing three quarters, a small but broad stumble (growth, margins and opex) is evident. Even as corporate slippages were significantly higher (largely from identified stress), the steady watchlist and a <2% SMA book provide consolation on asset quality. At 1.1x FY21E ABV, valuations are cheap and reflect FB's inconsistent journey through challenging macros. It is noteworthy that the incumbent MD&CEO was granted a only year's extension by the regulator (with conditions for further extension). Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 119. FB saw higher slippages, margin contraction, slower growth and an opex bump up in 2QFY20. A static watchlist was the silver lining. With a TP of Rs 119 (1.5x Sept-21 ABV of Rs 79), we maintain BUY.

Our revised TP of INR600 discounts forward earnings by 12x, instead of 13x, due to expectations of a slower margin expansion and also the risk in longer- Revenue grew by 4.9% QoQ versus our estimate of +3.1% QoQ. Growth was soft in the verticals of Aerospace (-1.7% QoQ) and In the Services business, revenue declined by 15% sequentially from clients in the range of Top 6-10; also CYL lost two clients in USD5m+ category. Even though Q3 is seasonally weak, CYL expects growth in services businesses. This is because the expected uptick in margins from cost rationalization will likely be largely offset by external consultant fees in FY20. This is because the expected uptick in margins from cost rationalization will likely be largely offset by external consultant fees in FY20.

Although growth in south India has been relatively slow, management expects a turnaround in the second half this year, which will likely provide additional support to earnings. We increase our EBITDA estimate by 9%/4% for FY20/21, given the strong second-quarter performance and managements focus on screen addition A multitude of factors including its healthy growth prospects, strong competitive positioning, continuous increase in ATP and bright opportunity to grow ad revenue justify premium valuations. These bode well from the top- and A multitude of factors, including healthy growth prospects, competitive positioning, continuous increase in ATP and a bright opportunity to grow advertisement revenue, justify premium valuations. Also, this could provide additional source of revenue to producers which can lead to investment in better and big Management highlighted a major trend in the industry South Indian movies dubbed in Hindi are performing exceptionally well.

17 October 2019 After reporting sub-optimal performance in the last few years due to high opex, interest reversals and provisioning pressures, SBIN is now well poised for an earnings recovery. The revival in earnings will be led by steady operating performance at the PPOP level (14% CAGR over FY19-FY21E), recoveries from large NCLT resolutions and normalization of credit cost over FY20E/FY21E v/s average of 3.2% over FY17-FY19. Further, reduction in the corporate tax rate from 30% to 22% should also support earnings; however, FY20E will be impacted due to one-time DTA reversal while full benefits will come in FY21 onwards. SBIs subsidiaries SBI MF, SBI Life Insurance, SBI Cards and SBI Cap Securities have displayed robust performance in the last few years. We note that at CMP, SBINs subs are accounting for ~35% of total valuation and the bank is trading close to its lowest valuation (0.7x FY21E ABV) at least for the past five years (including AQR period) please refer details.

Recently, Tech Mahindra has secured a multiyear contract from AT&T; communications. The expansion of the strategic collaboration focus on accelerating AT&T;'s IT network application, shared systems modernization and movement to the cloud. As per media sources, it is the largest deal with a consideration of ~$1 billion. Previous to this deal, company has bagged an outsourcing contract of $100 million from Vodafone in New Zealand (media sources). Company's management commentary also indicates a revival in large deals, as companies move towards bigger transformation...