During FY19, the company's leisure international revenues increased 23% YoY mainly on the back of improving domestic spend and higher growth in foreign tourist arrival. On the other hand, domestic leisure segment got impacted, to some extent, with disruption in the airline industry. This, in turn, led to annual growth of 5.8% YoY only. Going forward, with improved tourism measures by the government and improved purchasing power, we expect domestic leisure business to continue to outperform in coming years. Hence, we expect leisure revenues to grow at a CAGR of 7-8% in FY19-21E....

VIL requires INR600b over the next eight quarters to fund (a) estimated capex of INR326b, (b) spectrum payment liabilities of INR213b and (c) external debt servicing and interest cost. The rights issue of INR250b, along with Ideas INR50b stake sale in Indus, current cash position, and cumulative EBITDA of INR220b until FY21, will be the sources of funds. Despite the huge fund raise and the estimated EBITDA increase to INR126b by FY21, net debt is likely to remain at INR1,060b, with the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio at a steep 8.4x. Unlike Bhartis fund raise, which will help it to deleverage the balance sheet significantly, VILs estimated annual capex requirement and interest burden of over INR200b in FY21 may not be fulfilled even with an optimistic EBITDA of INR126b. Thus, without an ARPU increase, it may need another round of fund-raise to survive. Given the cash flow and capex requirements for telcos and the current price plans offered, there exists a huge opportunity to increase ARPU.

We, recently, met Mr Raj Ahuja, CFO and Senior Group President, Mr Niranjan Banodkar, Senior President, Financial and Investor Strategy and Mr Sunny Desa, Senior VP, Financial and Investor Strategy, Yes Bank (YBL) and gleaned incremental insight into future prospects for the bank. The most key takeaway from our conversation with management was that the likelihood of Divergence with RBI in asset quality assessment in the future is low. We detail our takeaways below. We have also revised our estimates for FY20/FY21 and retained Buy rating on YBL, revising our target price to Rs329 (from...

However, the quarter witnessed a steep rise in provisions, where it increased 8x y-o-y and ~6x on a q-o-q basis to Rs. 3661.7 crore. Yes Bank has identified a stressed pool of ~ Rs 10,000 crores, against which it has taken additional contingent provisions of Rs 2,100 crore. Affected by accelerated additional provisioning and lower other income, the bank reported a loss of Rs...

MT Educare's (MT's) FY19 core operating results are line with our estimates. The company reported a profit at the operating and net levels after registering losses in FY18 on account of one-time expected credit loss (ECL) provisions relating to Aryan Foundation, Sri Gayatri Educational Trust, certain government projects, and other debtors. While operating revenue came in marginally lower than our expectation, EBITDA was in line, leading to 50 bps higher EBITDA margin (12.5%). PAT was higher than our estimate due to higher-than-expected other income....

MT is a strong player in school and higher secondary science coaching in Maharashtra. It also has a good presence in Karnataka where it manages pre-university colleges in partnership with Aryan Foundation. MT's key strengths include 3 decades' experience, top-ranking students, and strong brands. The company's strategy to collaborate with local partners in new markets and exploring different models to expand should enable it to accelerate growth going forward. The company's government projects vertical is expected to contribute...

Revenue changes its course: A stellar jump in APRU helped clear the major hurdle of a continued downtrend in revenue, which stood flat sequentially at INR117.8b (in-line) in 4QFY19. This, coupled with INR2b one-offs, led to strong EBITDA growth of 57% QoQ to INR17.9b. Interestingly, even adjusted for oneoffs, EBITDA was up by a robust 39% QoQ (13% beat), primarily led by merger synergies (margin expanded 380bp to 13.5%). Adjusted for exceptional item and the DTA impact, IDEA reported a net loss of INR40.6b (v/s INR62.1b in 3Q). Concall highlights: (1) IDEA guided for capex of INR168b for FY20. (2) Net IUC EBITDA contribution stands at slightly over INR4b, which is likely to reduce to nil...

IG Petrochemicals Ltd (IGPL), for Q4FY19, reported depressed performance. Revenue growth remains flat at 0.1% YoY to INR 3,131mn (est INR 3,221mn). EBITDA decline by 42.5% YoY to INR 367mn (est INR440mn) with 866bps YoY contraction in margin from 20.4% in Q4FY18 to 11.7% in Q4FY19 (est.13.6%) mainly due to decline in gross margins led by reduction in PAN/OX spread due to extreme volatility in raw material prices. During Q4FY19, production of PAN volume has grew by 11.6% on a sequential basis from 37,296MTn in Q3FY19 to 41,617MTn in Q4. However, on yearly basis, PAN volume grew by 7.3% due to customers resume buying which they had postponed during Q3 as stabilization in commodity prices. As we noticed stabilization in crude oil in recent months, we expect better volume uptick in going forward with improvement in margins on the back of increasing...

We recently met Mr. Ravneet Gill, CEO of Yes Bank (YBL) and gleaned incremental Sector: Banking insight into the strategy of the company. We share our detailed takeaways below. We revise our estimates for FY20/FY21 and maintain Buy rating, revising our target price to CMP: Rs140...

VIL is moving in the right direction by strengthening 4G rollouts, balance sheet through rights issue, stake sale in Indus and potential monetization of fiber assets. That said, low EBITDA, substantially higher leverage and persistent cash burn has put VIL in precarious position with limited room to err. Synergy benefits, substantial 4G sub additions and tariff hikes are essential. Pricing strategy by competitors is key for viability and stock sentiment hereon. We believe all these factors may play out. Our TP is highly sensitive to tariff increase. Vodafone Idea (VIL) 4QFY19 results were ahead of estimates. This was primarily led by inevitable synergy benefits post integration. That said, operating performance was feeble with flat revenues QoQ and modest data subscribers additions. BUY with TP of Rs 19 (10x FY21E EBITDA).

We expect 18% earnings CAGR over FY18-21E. Nocil remains our preferred pick with attractive valuation of ~11x PER FY20E and ROEs of ~18%. Our recent plant visit to Nocil at Dahej reinforced our conviction on a strong growth outlook, notwithstanding near term demand dip due to weak auto...

IGPL with PAN capacities coming on stream by the end of CY19 is well placed to capitalize on domestic opportunities. However, the near term consumption demand downturn remains a concern. Maintain BUY....

NCC's strong order book is well diversified across segments and geographies and lends revenue visibility over the next 2 years. Apart from 2-3 months delay in some projects, NCC does not envisage execution to suffer as a result of the elections. We expect net working capital levels to remain stable (100days) leading to strong free cash flows of ~Rs 3.3/5.1bn in FY20/21E. We have built in muted APAT growth over FY20-21E led by high interest costs, depreciation and pressure on margins. Re-rating is contingent on the pace of reduction of the ~Rs 13.9bn group exposure and real estate monetization. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Adverse ruling on ongoing arbitrations; (2) Slow down in government capex; (3) Deterioration in NWC days; and (4) Weak real estate monetization. We maintain BUY on NCC with a TP of Rs 170/Sh (EPC business at 15x FY21E EPS). We have tweaked our finance cost estimate lower and increased our FY20/21E EPS by 2.2/0.4%.

SIPL's asset monetization brings in the much needed liquidity flush to the Sadbhav Group. The cash infusion will lead to SEL net D/E reducing from 0.7x to 0.2x (FY19/20E). Balance sheet strengthening makes a case of credit rating upgrade. With IndInfravit's backing, SIPL is well placed to bid for upcoming HAMs/BOTs and SEL in turn stands to benefit from captive ordering. We believe SEL is well placed to deliver 20.3/26.5% FY19-21E Rev/APAT CAGR. Maintain positive stance. We maintain BUY with a reduced SOTP of Rs 340/sh (vs Rs 353/sh earlier). We value SELs EPC business at 15x FY21E EPS and assign a 20% hold co discount to SIPL stakes market value. We have downgraded FY20/21E EPS by 1/2%.

Standalone orderbook at strong | 39,402 crore as of Q4FY19 NCC witnessed robust order inflows worth | 25,612 crore in FY19 taking its standalone orderbook (OB) to | 39,402 crore, 3.3x TTM revenues, providing strong revenue visibility ahead. This OB is after de-scoping of slow moving or uncertain projects. Buildings (39%), roads (21%), water (23%) and electricity (4%) divisions make up 85% of the OB. On the customer front, 99% of the orders are from government entities. While NCC has a strong OB position, given the high base created on account of robust execution and...

NCC has seen significant de-rating post the AP Govt order cancellation and uncertainty of execution on balance Rs 125bn of AP order book. Our channel checks will local Govt officials suggest work of significant importance will start in next 3months. We ascribe low probability of further project cancellation for NCC in AP. Debt levels may remain at current levels, though AP receivable realization may take time. Sembcorp arbitration will unlock Rs 4-5bn of cash inflow. With inexpensive valuation (6.3x Core EPC FY21E EPS) and receding headwinds we maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Adverse ruling on ongoing arbitrations; (2) Slow down in government capex; (3) Deterioration in NWC days; and (4) Weak real estate monetization. NCC reported inline 1QFY20 performance with Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of (4.5)/2.5/1.6%. We expect AP projects execution to resume from Oct-19. Core EPC valuation is inexpensive at 6.3x FY21E EPS. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 154/Sh (EPC business at 15x FY21E EPS).

For running the DRI plant at full capacity, production at 5-6 units of CGP will have to be ramped up. In contrast, if coal were made available from its erstwhile captive mine (de- allocated in 2014), the receiving time (post production) would be ~12 hours and cost of gas production would have been USD3-4/mmbtu. DRI plant has restarted in Mar19 and is operating at a run-rate of ~1mtpa (3,000tpd at 50% utilization). JSP plans to increase the DRI utilization run-rate to ~80-85% by Sep19. JSP has started using surplus coke oven gases (two coke oven batteries commissioned last year) in DRI production. The third coke oven battery is likely to be commissioned in FY20. Usage of coke oven gases in DRI production is likely to increase. Coke oven acts as a cost-effective substitute to syngas (gas obtained from CGP).

JBM Auto (JBMA)'s results were better than estimates in 4QFY19 (revenue +8%, PAT+13% YoY), despite challenging environment in the PV segment, due to a strong revival in the bus business and a robust growth in the tooling business. We are positive on the stock based on 1) new order wins in the sheet metal business, from M&M;, Tata Motors, and VECV; 2) encouraging revenue potential in the tooling business (high margin +30%), given rising localization and outsourcing of tooling requirements by large global OEMs (cost-benefit of 25% in India); and 3) increasing economies of...

Order book at strong | 11,227.7 crore as of Q4FY19 SEL's order book (OB) was at | 11,227.7 crore as of Q4FY19, implying an order book-to-bill ratio of 3.2x on FY19 revenues. BOT/HAM and EPC divisions make up 81.3% of the OB, followed by irrigation (3.4%) and mining division (15.3%). Currently, highway sector remains the priority for bidding projects for the company. The management expects bidding activity to start in the coming months and expects to receive order inflows to the tune of | 6,000-8,000 crore depending on opportunities lined up ahead....