Broker Research reports: latest Downgrades for all reports

Kolte Patil Developers: KPDL reported its Q4FY22 presales of 0.8msf (-8.2%/-9.3% YoY/QoQ), valued at INR 5bn (-2%/-10.7% YoY/QoQ), with average realisation of INR 6,418 per sq. ft. (+7.2%/-1.1% YoY/QoQ). With this, its FY22 presales volume came in at 2.7msf (+30.3% YoY; exceeding its FY22 guidance of 2.5msf), valued at INR 17.4bn (+44.8% YoY), with average realisation of INR 6,407 per sq. ft. (+10.8% YoY). In value terms, the contribution of non-Pune sales was ~31%, similar to previous quarter. Over the next few quarters, KPDL has a robust launch pipeline of ~5.4msf, with a top line potential of INR 46bn. KPDL is evaluating business development (BD) pipeline with INR 70bn GDV in Pune (65%), Mumbai and Bengaluru (35%). Net D/E reduced further to 0.14x (0.19x as on Dec-21). Given the comfortable liquidity position, KPDL can further acquire land bank, paving the way for accelerated BD activities. We maintain BUY, with a reduced TP of INR 350 (Mar-24E) to factor in higher cost of capital and WACC. Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our BUY rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 375, is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products, (2) improvement in refining margins over the coming 18 months, and (3) gradual improvement in marketing margins for FY23-24 vis--vis FY22 levels. Q4FY22 EBITDA/APAT, at INR 42.5/21.3bn, were 46/59% below estimates, owing to higher-than-expected operating expenses on account of write-off taken for the Polyol project, higher depreciation and higher tax rates. Reported GRM stood at USD 15.3/bbl (HSIE: USD 12.7/bbl). NHPC: NHPC's revenue...

Kolte Patil Developers: KPDL reported its Q4FY22 presales of 0.8msf (-8.2%/-9.3% YoY/QoQ), valued at INR 5bn (-2%/-10.7% YoY/QoQ), with average realisation of INR 6,418 per sq. ft. (+7.2%/-1.1% YoY/QoQ). With this, its FY22 presales volume came in at 2.7msf (+30.3% YoY; exceeding its FY22 guidance of 2.5msf), valued at INR 17.4bn (+44.8% YoY), with average realisation of INR 6,407 per sq. ft. (+10.8% YoY). In value terms, the contribution of non-Pune sales was ~31%, similar to previous quarter. Over the next few quarters, KPDL has a robust launch pipeline of ~5.4msf, with a top line potential of INR 46bn. KPDL is evaluating business development (BD) pipeline with INR 70bn GDV in Pune (65%), Mumbai and Bengaluru (35%). Net D/E reduced further to 0.14x (0.19x as on Dec-21). Given the comfortable liquidity position, KPDL can further acquire land bank, paving the way for accelerated BD activities. We maintain BUY, with a reduced TP of INR 350 (Mar-24E) to factor in higher cost of capital and WACC. Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our BUY rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 375, is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products, (2) improvement in refining margins over the coming 18 months, and (3) gradual improvement in marketing margins for FY23-24 vis--vis FY22 levels. Q4FY22 EBITDA/APAT, at INR 42.5/21.3bn, were 46/59% below estimates, owing to higher-than-expected operating expenses on account of write-off taken for the Polyol project, higher depreciation and higher tax rates. Reported GRM stood at USD 15.3/bbl (HSIE: USD 12.7/bbl). NHPC: NHPC's revenue...

Kolte Patil Developers: KPDL reported its Q4FY22 presales of 0.8msf (-8.2%/-9.3% YoY/QoQ), valued at INR 5bn (-2%/-10.7% YoY/QoQ), with average realisation of INR 6,418 per sq. ft. (+7.2%/-1.1% YoY/QoQ). With this, its FY22 presales volume came in at 2.7msf (+30.3% YoY; exceeding its FY22 guidance of 2.5msf), valued at INR 17.4bn (+44.8% YoY), with average realisation of INR 6,407 per sq. ft. (+10.8% YoY). In value terms, the contribution of non-Pune sales was ~31%, similar to previous quarter. Over the next few quarters, KPDL has a robust launch pipeline of ~5.4msf, with a top line potential of INR 46bn. KPDL is evaluating business development (BD) pipeline with INR 70bn GDV in Pune (65%), Mumbai and Bengaluru (35%). Net D/E reduced further to 0.14x (0.19x as on Dec-21). Given the comfortable liquidity position, KPDL can further acquire land bank, paving the way for accelerated BD activities. We maintain BUY, with a reduced TP of INR 350 (Mar-24E) to factor in higher cost of capital and WACC. Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our BUY rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 375, is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products, (2) improvement in refining margins over the coming 18 months, and (3) gradual improvement in marketing margins for FY23-24 vis--vis FY22 levels. Q4FY22 EBITDA/APAT, at INR 42.5/21.3bn, were 46/59% below estimates, owing to higher-than-expected operating expenses on account of write-off taken for the Polyol project, higher depreciation and higher tax rates. Reported GRM stood at USD 15.3/bbl (HSIE: USD 12.7/bbl). NHPC: NHPC's revenue...

The company recorded its best ever residential performance in FY22

Amid cost pressures, capacity addition bolsters outlook

Deccan Cements: We maintain our ADD rating on Deccan Cements (DCL), with a lower target price of INR 515/sh (6x its Mar-24E EBITDA). The company reported weak performance in Q4FY22 as both volumes and margin contracted YoY on lower sales and rising cost inflation. It reported 13/35/15% YoY revenue/ EBITDA/APAT decline. DCL's 2mn MT capacity expansion is slightly delayed (we expect it to be operational in FY25) due to delay in environmental clearances. Phoenix Mills: Phoenix Mills (PHNX) reported strong revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 4.9/2.4/1.05bn, beat at all levels. Retail consumption for the year was INR 46.8bn (excl. Palassio) and was 1.7x FY21 and 70% of FY20/FY19 level. Consumption has bounced back and, in Apr-22, it was 129% of pre-COVID level. The effect of inflation on consumption was not significant; however, price escalation is on the cards from many retailers, which will translate into higher revenue for PHNX. The convergence of leased and trading occupancy shall further push growth by ~8% as multiple tenants under fit-outs move to trading. PHNX acquired the remaining stake in PMC Chennai for INR 9.4bn at a cap rate of ~9%. Within office space, Fountainhead Tower 2 started contributing. Office income was up 22% YoY in FY22. Until now (in FY23), 0.1msf has been leased in this segment. Gross debt inched up INR 740mn sequentially, on account of debt drawn for Indore and Ahmedabad mall construction, which are expected to commence operations by Diwali 2022. We maintain BUY, with an unchanged SOTP of INR 1,364 on account of: (1) slightly better rental...

Earnings miss estimates while margins dip

Q4 revenue grew 30% YoY to Rs 4.6bn, with 84% coming from VMART and 16% from Unlimited stores

We maintain our BUY rating with a revised target price of Rs 1,100/share (Rs 1,250 earlier), valuing the stock at 32x FY24E EPS, indicating an upside of 32% from the CMP.

We roll over our estimate to FY24 and retain a BUY rating on the stock, valuing the company at 11.5x FY24E EPS to arrive at a target price of Rs 275/share (Rs 305/share earlier), implying an upside of 10% from the CMP.