11 July 2020 Automobiles Jaguar Land Rover (JLR)s wholesale volumes declined 44.8% YoY to ~65.4k ~15% YoY at ~16.5k units. JLRs 1QFY21 retail sales declined ~42% YoY to ~74k, with LR decreasing ~38% and Jaguar ~52.5%. Jun20 retail sales fell ~25% YoY to 35.3k. This was the first month of retail for many markets, such as the UK. In Jun20, China (-7.4% YoY) and North America (+2.2% YoY) were particularly encouraging.

As a result, revenue witnessed a 34% drop and estimated same-store sales growth (SSSG) fell -55%; the closure of the margin-accretive non-food section dragged down gross margins by ~220 bps, translating to 81% YoY decline in EBITDA. DMarts consolidated revenues fell 33% YoY to INR39b (6% below est.) on sales of mostly essential products witnessed at DMart stores and many stores remaining shut in the initial phase of the nationwide lockdown. Gross profit fell 42% YoY (in-line) and gross margins (GM) contracted 220bps YoY to 14.2% (90bp below estimate). This is attributable to the high- margin General Merchandise and Apparel sections of retail stores being closed during the lockdown and stores in some areas (with high local restrictions) continuing to operate sales only for essentials items. Subsequently, loss of INR3b in gross profit directly impacted EBITDA, which fell 81% YoY to INR1.1b (28% below est.); EBITDA margins contracted 740bps to 2.

10 July 2020 Reliance Industries (RIL) focus and determination with which it has executed its foray into digital and retail segments is highly commendable. This has resulted in our own equity valuation for digital and retail changing from INR315/share three years back to INR1,385/share currently. RILs digital segment has seen partnerships with global giants like Facebook, Microsoft, Intel and host of well known global private equity players. As RIL has achieved a decent foothold in both digital services and organized retail, we believe it would now turn its focus to the oil-to-chemicals project, for which it has signed an MoU with Saudi Aramco. In a conventional refinery, only three products (petrol, diesel and ATF) comprising 60-70% of the product slate, command positive margins. Globally, a conventional refinery produces ~8% of naphtha, which may be used as chemical feedstock. Comparatively, RIL has 24% conversion rate of oil-to-chemicals currently.

More importantly, continued traction in large deals, a healthy pipeline, and better resilience in BFSI are encouraging Management believes the worst impact of COVID-19 is behind (both in terms of revenue and profitability) even as some variables such as pricing and working capital cycles warrant a close watch. TCS reported revenue (CC) / EBIT / PBT/ PAT declined 6.3%/2%/11%/14% As in the case of Accenture, the Healthcare vertical reported robust growth (~14% YoY, CC), led by work related to contact tracing applications, etc. Over the medium term, we expect TCS to be a key beneficiary of the COVID-19-driven increase in technology intensity across Rich multiples (22x FY22E EPS) leave limited upside in the stock, in our view. In this vertical, while the UK and Canadian markets remained soft, Barring continental Europe (+2.7% YoY), key geographies such as North America (-6.1% YoY) and the UK (-8.5% YoY) reported declines.

technology access may not be as big a barrier to competitors (KOEL, Mahindra, and Perkins), end markets may not be strong enough to absorb such steep price hikes (similar learning from the earlier transition from CPCB-I to CPCB-II), the implementation date is set as July 2021, which may be pushed by six to nine months, especially given the COVID- 19-led disruption. However, the key end markets Manufacturing, Real Estate, Retail, and Hospitality are likely to remain under pressure, with a sluggish growth outlook over the next two years. Even the transition to CPCB-II met with a similar fate, with an anticipation of pre-buying, followed by price hikes, and hope of earnings growth. Given the weak outlook for the end markets and limited pricing power in the Gensets industry, we refrain from being bullish on CPCB-IV opportunities. Currently, macro headwinds remain too strong for the industry to witness double-digit growth on a sustainable basis in the domestic market.

5 July 2020 ALPM delivered a 14% CAGR in US sales to USD280m (43% of sales) on account of 58 launches over FY1620. Particularly, in FY20, ALPM garnered 49% YoY growth, led by new launches (22) and partly by regulatory concerns witnessed by peers. On a high FY20 base, we expect a 10% CAGR in US sales to USD340m over FY20 22. ALPM would ramp up filings across new dosages (Ophthalmology, General Injectables, Oncology Injectables, and Oral Solids). The considerable share of revenue from new capex / product development would reflect in overall growth in US sales 2HFY22 onward; thus, it forms a marginal portion of the business trajectory over FY2022. ALPM delivered 13% YoY growth in 4QFY20, reflecting the benefit of the pre-buying of medicines (in anticipation of shortage due to COVID-19) and partly of renewed strategy. While efforts to improve sales growth have been on track, performance could be dented on account of the COVID-19-led slowdown.

Disbursements recovering; Focus on existing customer base To share a business update on trends related to disbursements, deposits accretion and moratorium proportion availed across segments, EQUITAS hosted an analyst call. Following are the key takeaways:...

The Board of Directors of MSS granted in-principle approval for the re- The demerger of the Domestic Wiring Harness (DWH) business of MSS into a new company that shall have mirror shareholding as MSS and shall be listed. This merged entity would be renamed Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd The demerger of the India Wiring Harness business would not include the 50% JV with Kyungshin Industrial Motherson, which manufactures wiring Effectively, the current listed entity (MSS) would be left with the global businesses (100% of SMRPBV and PKC) and remaining India business, including the JVs. The India Wiring Harness (DWH) business would be focused on the India business, as desired by Sumitomo. Post the merger of SAMIL, the shareholding of the promoters would increase to 68.15% from 61.73% currently, with the Sehgal family controlling 50.4% and Sumitomo Wiring System owning 17.7%. Adjusted for its 33.43% stake in the listed entity (~INR129b at our fair value) and 49% stake in SMRPBV (~INR55b at 15x Jun22 EPS), the implied core business valuation works out to ~INR60b.

However, over the past two to three years, delinquencies have increased in the corporate book due to underlying stress in the Real Estate segment as well as the proactive recognition of some stressed accounts as NPLs. When the company reports windfall gains (from stake sales in subsidiaries), it uses 30% of these gains as incremental provisions. The company follows the policy of allotting one- third of gains as provisions, which has led to net additions of ~INR157b to the Strong internal accruals of INR155b post the dividend payout are in line with our We believe rating agencies comfort level on adequate leverage based on the product mix is likely to reduce across products in this cycle, especially considering the challenges witnessed in the NBFC space over the last two years and the credit events in large entities in the past.

1 July 2020 Tata Steels (TATA) 4Q EBITDA rose 28% QoQ to INR46.5b and surprised positively led by improved performance in Europe and Bhushan. Near term earnings outlook is weak due to lower domestic demand necessitating higher exports which adversely impacts EBITDA. Moreover, leverage remains discomforting at 8x of FY21 EBITDA. Given the challenges in Europe, we cut our FY21/22 EBITDA estimates marginally rating on the stock. INR40.4b) in 4QFY20 due to improved profitability in Tata Steel BSL and Europe. Consolidated sales volumes stood at 6.5mt, down 11%/14% QoQ/YoY. Other income was substantially higher at INR13.2b (2.7x YoY, 14.x QoQ), due to one-off gains.

30 June 2020 The near-term uncertainty in PHNXs business, especially retail malls (one of the worst hit businesses due to COVID-19), remains a challenge. However, in the medium-to-long term, PHNX still remains one of the best proxy plays on Indias consumption story. Revenue declined 45% YoY to INR3,992m (v/s est. EBITDA margin declined 100bp YoY to 51.2% (in line with est. EBITDA stood at INR2,043m (v/s est. Adj. PAT declined 75% YoY to INR467m (v/s est. Retail revenue declined 7% YoY to INR2,705m, largely impacted by COVID-19 led countrywide lockdowns in the second half of Mar20.

30 June 2020 4QFY20 EBITDA stood at INR7b (v/s est. INR11.2b; +11% YoY and -37% QoQ), led by higher other expenditure. Other expenditure was higher by ~INR2.8b in 4QFY20, primarily due to ~INR1.78b on account of forex related changes on lease liability and higher-than-normal expenditure on CSR. Also, lower other income led to PAT coming in 18% lower YoY at INR3.6b (v/s est. Tax rate was 26.2% in 4QFY20. Total volumes stood at 219tbtu (v/s est. -9%, +7% YoY and -6% QoQ) Utilization at Dahej came in lower than est. at 93% (100% in 3QFY20), with volumes at 206tbtu (+4% YoY and -7% QoQ), primarily due to COVID-19. Utilization at Kochi was higher than est.

30 June 2020 Standalone revenue of INR214.6b (-20% YoY, -10% QoQ) was marginally higher than our estimate. The YoY decline was primarily due to lower oil price realization (at USD49/bbl in 4QFY20). However, EBITDA came in lower than estimate at INR85.9b (~-30% YoY/QoQ), impacted by higher other expenditure. ONGC recorded INR11.1b on account of exchange loss and INR3.7b on account of Ind-AS 116 related adjustment. If adjusted for the above stated two charges, EBITDA stands at INR101b (in line v/s est. DDA stood at INR80.4b (v/s est. Higher DDA and lower other income resulted in PBT of INR10.1b (lower ~82% YoY/QoQ).

30 June 2020 Bharat Electronics (BHE)s 4QFY20 earnings came in higher than estimated, led by a strong uptick in margins. While revenue was in-line, the major surprise was the EBITDA margin coming in at 25.5% v/s our estimate of 20.5%. Thus, net profit was 26% above our estimate. Adjusted for EVM/VVPAT orders in the base year, execution was strong at 56%/37% for 4QFY20/FY20. The EBITDA margin tends to be volatile on a quarterly basis as it depends on the sales mix between deliverables. The current order book is strong at INR520b, with an OB/rev ratio of 4.1x. We tweak our FY21/FY22E EPS by -6%/+2%. Revenues were up 50% YoY to INR58b, Strong execution and lower other expenses resulted in EBITDA growth of 60% YoY to INR14.8b (26% above our estimates). The EBITDA margin stood at 25.5% v/s our expectation of 20.

30 June 2020 Since resumption of operations, M&M; is seeing good on-ground momentum in its key business of tractors as well as for products like Bolero and Scorpio. According to the management, its internal index for rural spend has been at the highest level for many quarters. It is driven by (a) unusually strong water reservoir levels, (b) good Rabi crop, and (c) expectation of normal monsoons. Demand in Jun20 is higher than last year. With one of the highest exposures to rural markets (~65% of volumes), M&M; is well positioned to benefit from rural recovery considering its dominance in tractor/LCV business. According to our estimates, rural markets should contribute ~63% to M&Ms; revenues and 81% to core PAT in FY22E. With faster rural recovery, tractor volumes are expected to be flat in FY21E compared to the 20% expected decline in the auto segment. This should result in higher revenue contribution from FES 38.4% in FY21E (v/s 34.

29 June 2020 OINL recorded impairment of INR12.3b considering the impact on lower crude oil and gas prices and the additional INR5.5b in the KG Basin. This totals to INR17.8b, which has been accounted for in other expenditure. However, we have classified the impairment and write-offs as part of DD&A.; Therefore, our EBIDTA stands at INR6.8b (v/s est. -5% and -38% YoY/QoQ) against EBITDA loss of INR11b reported by the company. Owing to the aforementioned adjustment, DD&A; for the company now stands at INR20.3b (translating to USD26.7/boe). Other income was higher at INR9.9b (INR4.2b in 4QFY20) due to higher dividend and interest income.

HMN recorded sales decline in most of the categories in YoY), Healthcare (-9% YoY), Male Grooming (-42% YoY), and BoroPlus (- 77%). Sales / EBITDA / Adj. PAT has witnessed a ~5% CAGR or lower for five years now, which is particularly disappointing given HMNs smaller size v/s highest domestic sales proportion among peers at around 50%), b) the announcement on the call that the group cement business sale would be concluded within the next fortnight, thereby sharply removing the pledge, and c) inexpensive valuations of 16x FY22 EPS. The company maintained leadership with volume market share at 66.4% as of MAT Dec19 The Male Grooming range declined 42% in 4QFY20 and 29% in FY20. Sales / EBITDA / Adj. PAT reported a ~5% CAGR or lower for five years now, which is particularly disappointing given HMNs smaller size v/s.

29 June 2020 Glenmark Pharma (GNP) ended FY20 in a third consecutive year of earnings decline, albeit at a lower intensity v/s previous years. Reduced price erosion in the US base business, supported by new launches, would further strengthen the earnings trajectory going forward. We raise our EPS estimate by 3%/8% for FY21/FY22 to factor better traction in the US business / Domestic Formulations and cost rationalization benefits. We value GNP on a 13x 12M forward earnings basis to arrive at price target of INR430. The gross margin (GM) contracted by 190bps YoY to 64% due to a change in the product mix. However, the EBITDA margin expanded 120bps to 15.1% down 30bp/280bp YoY as a percentage of sales). EBITDA grew 16.4% YoY to Adjusting for gains (INR329m from Gynecology brand sales / INR350m from FY20 revenues/EBITDA increased 7.1%/2% YoY to INR104b/INR14.8b.

29 June 2020 Coal India (COAL)s results highlight the impact of lower e-auction realizations and flattish volumes amid subdued thermal power demand. FSA realizations, though, have continued the improvement demonstrated over the past year on account of better grade quality. Muted power demand would impact off-take and e-auction realizations in the near term. However, we expect Coal India to tide over the situation price of INR189/sh based on 3.5x Sep21 EV/EBITDA. ~INR66b) due to lower e-auction realizations and muted power off-take. The beat on our estimates was driven by better-than-expected FSA realizations and a higher mix of e-auctions in the off-take. Volumes were flat YoY at ~164mt (in-line). Cash cost (ex-OBR) decreased 1% YoY at INR981/t. FSA volumes declined 2% YoY to 139.2mt. Realizations came in higher grade realization. E-Auction volumes rose 26% YoY to 21mt. Conversely, realizations were down 24% YoY to INR2,105/t.

CESCs 4QFY20 results highlight the benefit of improved performance for its distribution franchisee (DF) and Dhariwal businesses with consol. On the other hand, S/A PAT declined 19% YoY, leading to While the muted power demand environment could impact profitability in the near term, the longer-term story remains intact. Despite factoring in the tightening of norms at Haldia and for the S/A, the stock trades attractively at 7x FY21E In 4QFY20, S/A PAT declined ~19% YoY to INR2.5b (20% below est. Consolidated PAT increased ~7% YoY to INR4.4b in the quarter, largely on the back of improved performance for its DF and Dhariwal businesses. Despite factoring in the tightening of norms at Haldia and for the S/A, the stock trades attractively at 7x FY21E Further, the un-tied generation capacity and scale-up in DFs has the potential to boost earnings.