gas and LPG transmission segment; (2) bounce back of gas trading margin of US$0.21/mmbtu from the lows of US$0.12/mmbtu in 2QFY20; (3) Petrochemical plant utilisation rose to 106% with sharp recovery in EBITDA/kg to Rs5 from Rs1.5in 2QFY20; (4) Despite lowest LPG price realisation, segment reported rise in sequential EBITDA on the back of lower gas cost. Notably, the company...

Aided by strong execution, Kalpataru Power Transmission (KPP) sustained its growth momentum in 3QFY20 as well with its revenue growing by 15% YoY to Rs19.8bn vs. our estimate of Rs20.2bn. T&D; revenue increased by 5% YoY, while non-T&D; grew by 20% (Railway business up 2x). EBITDA margin fell by 20bps YoY to 10.5%, while blended EBITDA grew by 13% YoY to Rs2.1bn. Despite strong EBITDA growth, higher interest (+35% YoY) and higher depreciation (+22% YoY) capped the PBT at Rs1.5bn (+9% YoY). Aided by lower taxes, adjusted PAT grew by 23% YoY to Rs1.13bn, while reported PAT grew by 49% YoY to Rs1.37bn, as KPP sold its stake in Kalpataru Satpura (Rs240mn). While KPP's order book rose by 5% YoY to Rs149bn, YTD order inflows remain...

Lower Spot LNG Prices to Drive Growth: Maintain HOLD Petronet LNG (PLNG) has reported EBITDA of Rs11.1bn (+31% YoY and -5% QoQ) in 3QFY20, exceeding our estimate by 7%. EBITDA growth is backed by stellar volume performance, 5% rise in regasification tariffs and adoption of Ind AS 116 with Lease Liability'. Its PBT grew by 11% YoY and 2% QoQ, 8%/6% higher than ours/consensus estimates. Reported net profit was higher due to adoption of lower tax rate. Net profit increased by 19% YoY to Rs6.75bn, (8%/2% higher than ours and consensus estimates). Despite delay in commissioning of Kochi-Mangalore pipeline (Mar'20), we believe lower spot LNG prices are a new growth driver, which will likely improve the...

Muted Volume Growth with Sequential Margin Contraction Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL) has reported a muted performance (albeit marginally above our estimates) in 3QFY20. While total sales volume grew by a muted 3% YoY (+2% QoQ) and EBITDA/ scm sequentially declined to Rs9.2 (vs. Rs9.9 in 2QFY20). Despite a muted growth in sales volume, its net sales decreased by 1% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rs7.4bn (2.3% below our estimate) mainly due to ~Rs2/scm cut in CNG & PNG prices during the quarter. Overall price realisation of Rs26.5/scm decreased by 7% YoY and 4% QoQ. Its gross profit grew by 6% YoY to Rs3.9bn on account of 8% YoY decline in cost of natural gas. EBITDA increased by 8% YoY (-5% QoQ) to Rs2.6bn (in line with...

ABB India has delivered a subdued performance in 4QCY19 with revenue declining by 1% YoY to Rs19.5bn owing to 20% lower revenue in industrial automation and significant decline in other segments. Revenue from Electrification and Motion segment grew by 11% and 7%, respectively. EBITDA margin fell by 390bps YoY to 7.1%, while EBITDA declined by 36% YoY to Rs1.4bn impacted by lower margin across segments. Adjusted PAT declined by 45% YoY to Rs1.1bn due to poor operating performance, while reported PAT declined by 81% YoY to Rs387mn, as the company has provided Rs697mn towards remeasurement of fixed assets and inventory for sale of solar inverter business. Order inflow declined by 16% YoY to Rs16bn in 4QCY19. The current order...

Robust Performance on Steady Realisation & Cost Benefits JK Cement (JKCE) continued to report a strong set of numbers in 3QFY20 amid challenges as its reported EBITDA grew by a strong 42% YoY to Rs2.78bn broadly in-line with our estimate. Unitary EBITDA for grey cement stood at Rs770 vs. Rs433 in 3QFY19 and Rs824 in 2QFY20. While sales volume of grey cement, including clinker, grew by 3.5% YoY, average realisation came in at Rs4,355/tonne (+10% YoY and -2.5% QoQ) broadly in-line with our estimate. Operating cost/ tonne declined by 1.5% QoQ to Rs4,404 despite sequential rise in input cost. JKCE noted that continued high cost of fuel inventory from RIL did not let the benefit of lower fuel prices reflect in...

Revenue from pharma business grew by 3% YoY. Notably, the segment recorded its highest therapies i.e. antihypertensive, cardiovascular, oncology and corticosteroids etc. The company also has a strong pipeline of approvals and visibility to maintain growth momentum. Segmental EBIT grew by 20% YoY in 3QFY20, and we expect similar growth in 4QFY20E as well. Specialty Chemical Biz Slight Decline in Margin...

Near-term Outlook Disappointing; but Up-Cycle to Begin in mid-FY21E Ashok Leyland (ALL) has delivered a disappointing operating performance in 3QFY20 with its EBIDTA margin coming in at 5.6% (down 466bps and 21bps QoQ) vs. our estimate of 6.5% due to lower realisation, sharp double-digit decline in volume and all-time high discounts. Total volume declined by 29% YoY (+8% QoQ) to 31,205 units. Its Revenue, EBIDTA and PAT declined by 37% YoY (+2% QoQ), 65% YoY (-2% QoQ) and 92% YoY (-65% QoQ) to Rs40.2bn, Rs2.3bn and Rs293mn vs. our estimates of Rs44.9bn, Rs2.9bn and Rs1.1bn, respectively. Higher interest outgo and higher tax rate impacted net profit. Though we expect similar slowdown to continue...

NCC Ltd (NJCC) has reported a weak performance in 3QFY20 owing to muted revenue booking led by project cancellation and absence of convincing pick-up in construction activities post monsoon. Reported revenue declined by 34% YoY to Rs21.2bn vs. our estimate of Rs24.5bn, while EBITDA witnessed a de-growth of 36% YoY to Rs2.5bn. EBITDA margin contracted by 36bps YoY and 165bps QoQ to 11.8%. Adjusted profit declined by a sharp 66% YoY (10% QoQ) to Rs543mn mainly led by soft execution. Notably, NJCC has set aside slow-moving and likelyto-be-cancelled projects worth Rs71.3bn from its order backlog in order to have a clear visibility of revenue booking from the ongoing projects. Therefore, its current order backlog stands at Rs250.5bn, which is 2.7x TTM revenue and still gives decent revenue visibility. Going forward,...

M&HCVs; Volume Bottoming Out; Recovery Likely by mid-FY21E Led by significantly lower volume, Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF) has delivered a highly disappointing performance in 3QFY20 with its PAT falling by 95% YoY to Rs17mn (vs. our estimate of Rs33mn). Its revenue declined by 49% YoY and 3% QoQ to Rs2.5bn (vs. our estimate of Rs2.8bn), while its volume declined by 50% YoY (+1% QoQ) to 18,730 tons owing to sharp decline in M&HCV; sales in the wake of higher axle load norm and ongoing economic slowdown. While EBITDA dropped by 55% YoY (+0.5% QoQ) to Rs475mn (slipping our estimate by 7.6%), EBIDTA margin contracted by 270bps YoY (+69bps QoQ) to 18.8% owing to 722bps YoY (+93bps QoQ)...

Dismal Performance with No Improvement in GRM; Maintain REDUCE Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) has delivered a disappointing performance in 3QFY20. It reported GRM of US$3.23/bbl below ours/consensus estimates of US$4.1/bbl. Petrol/diesel sales volume grew by 5.9%/(1.6%) YoY lower than the industry growth rate of 7.1%/0.2%. It clearly implies that BPCL has lost market share to private retailers during the quarter. EBITDA increased by 248% YoY and 14% QoQ to Rs 27bn (6% below the consensus estimate/8% higher than our estimate) mainly due to 12% YoY growth in crude throughput of refineries, comparative higher YoY GRM and improved net marketing margin on diesel. Net profit grew by 155% YoY (down 26%...

Strong Operating Performance despite Dismal Show by Power Division Shree Cement (SRCM) has reported a strong operating performance in 3QFY20 albeit missing our estimates. EBITDA grew by 20% YoY to Rs8.5bn (vs. our estimate of Rs9bn), while EBITDA/ tonne remained strong at Rs1,365/tonne vs. Rs1,067 in 3QFY19 and Rs1,451 in 2QFY19. Sales volume grew by 5.3% YoY to 6.25mnT, while average realisation stood at Rs4,512/tonne (+4.6% YoY and -3% QoQ) slightly below our estimate of Rs4,540. Operating cost/tonne for cement declined by 3% YoY and 1.7% QoQ to Rs3,147 (-3% YoY and -1.7% QoQ) mainly led by steep decline in input cost/tonne entailed by reduction in fuel cost. However, its power division has...

KNR Constructions (KNRC) continued to report robust operating performance in 3QFY20 despite lower-than-expected revenue booking. While revenue grew by 24% YoY to Rs5.6bn vs. our estimate of Rs6bn, EBITDA witnessed a stellar 38% YoY growth to Rs1.24bn vs. our estimate of Rs1.09bn. Adjusted for Rs37mn claim received for arbitration claim under revenue, EBITDA margin stood higher at 21.6% vs. 20.1% in 3QFY19 and 19.7% in 2QFY20. A meaningful increase in depreciation (led by higher capex in irrigation) and interest expenditures (due to mobilisation advances) and lower other income resulted in muted PBT of Rs588mn (-1% YoY and -35% QoQ). Further, KNRC's adjusted PAT declined by 14% YoY to Rs445mn owing to higher tax expenses....

Performance Beat on Better Volume & Cost Reduction Ambuja Cements (ACEM) has delivered a strong performance in 4QCY19, which was ahead of our estimates, mainly led by higher-than-expected sales volume and cost reduction. Reported EBITDA grew by stellar 47% YoY to Rs4.5bn (excluding Rs979mn other operation income) vs. our estimate of Rs4bn, while EBITDA/tonne stood at Rs687 vs. Rs498 and Rs707 in 4QCY18 and 3QCY19, respectively. Sales volume grew by a strong6.7% YoY to 6.54mnT (vs. our estimate of 6.3mnT), while average realisation declined by 5% QoQ (+3% YoY) to Rs4,645/tonne. A meaningful sequential reduction in operating cost/tonne to Rs3,958 (-1.4% YoY and -5.3%...

gas and LPG transmission segment; (2) bounce back of gas trading margin of US$0.21/mmbtu from the lows of US$0.12/mmbtu in 2QFY20; (3) Petrochemical plant utilisation rose to 106% with sharp recovery in EBITDA/kg to Rs5 from Rs1.5in 2QFY20; (4) Despite lowest LPG price realisation, segment reported rise in sequential EBITDA on the back of lower gas cost. Notably, the company...

Aided by strong execution, Kalpataru Power Transmission (KPP) sustained its growth momentum in 3QFY20 as well with its revenue growing by 15% YoY to Rs19.8bn vs. our estimate of Rs20.2bn. T&D; revenue increased by 5% YoY, while non-T&D; grew by 20% (Railway business up 2x). EBITDA margin fell by 20bps YoY to 10.5%, while blended EBITDA grew by 13% YoY to Rs2.1bn. Despite strong EBITDA growth, higher interest (+35% YoY) and higher depreciation (+22% YoY) capped the PBT at Rs1.5bn (+9% YoY). Aided by lower taxes, adjusted PAT grew by 23% YoY to Rs1.13bn, while reported PAT grew by 49% YoY to Rs1.37bn, as KPP sold its stake in Kalpataru Satpura (Rs240mn). While KPP's order book rose by 5% YoY to Rs149bn, YTD order inflows remain...

Lower Spot LNG Prices to Drive Growth: Maintain HOLD Petronet LNG (PLNG) has reported EBITDA of Rs11.1bn (+31% YoY and -5% QoQ) in 3QFY20, exceeding our estimate by 7%. EBITDA growth is backed by stellar volume performance, 5% rise in regasification tariffs and adoption of Ind AS 116 with Lease Liability'. Its PBT grew by 11% YoY and 2% QoQ, 8%/6% higher than ours/consensus estimates. Reported net profit was higher due to adoption of lower tax rate. Net profit increased by 19% YoY to Rs6.75bn, (8%/2% higher than ours and consensus estimates). Despite delay in commissioning of Kochi-Mangalore pipeline (Mar'20), we believe lower spot LNG prices are a new growth driver, which will likely improve the...

Muted Volume Growth with Sequential Margin Contraction Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL) has reported a muted performance (albeit marginally above our estimates) in 3QFY20. While total sales volume grew by a muted 3% YoY (+2% QoQ) and EBITDA/ scm sequentially declined to Rs9.2 (vs. Rs9.9 in 2QFY20). Despite a muted growth in sales volume, its net sales decreased by 1% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rs7.4bn (2.3% below our estimate) mainly due to ~Rs2/scm cut in CNG & PNG prices during the quarter. Overall price realisation of Rs26.5/scm decreased by 7% YoY and 4% QoQ. Its gross profit grew by 6% YoY to Rs3.9bn on account of 8% YoY decline in cost of natural gas. EBITDA increased by 8% YoY (-5% QoQ) to Rs2.6bn (in line with...

ABB India has delivered a subdued performance in 4QCY19 with revenue declining by 1% YoY to Rs19.5bn owing to 20% lower revenue in industrial automation and significant decline in other segments. Revenue from Electrification and Motion segment grew by 11% and 7%, respectively. EBITDA margin fell by 390bps YoY to 7.1%, while EBITDA declined by 36% YoY to Rs1.4bn impacted by lower margin across segments. Adjusted PAT declined by 45% YoY to Rs1.1bn due to poor operating performance, while reported PAT declined by 81% YoY to Rs387mn, as the company has provided Rs697mn towards remeasurement of fixed assets and inventory for sale of solar inverter business. Order inflow declined by 16% YoY to Rs16bn in 4QCY19. The current order...

Robust Performance on Steady Realisation & Cost Benefits JK Cement (JKCE) continued to report a strong set of numbers in 3QFY20 amid challenges as its reported EBITDA grew by a strong 42% YoY to Rs2.78bn broadly in-line with our estimate. Unitary EBITDA for grey cement stood at Rs770 vs. Rs433 in 3QFY19 and Rs824 in 2QFY20. While sales volume of grey cement, including clinker, grew by 3.5% YoY, average realisation came in at Rs4,355/tonne (+10% YoY and -2.5% QoQ) broadly in-line with our estimate. Operating cost/ tonne declined by 1.5% QoQ to Rs4,404 despite sequential rise in input cost. JKCE noted that continued high cost of fuel inventory from RIL did not let the benefit of lower fuel prices reflect in...