Shree Cements Ltd. share price target

We forecast Shree Cement to deliver Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 10.2%/9%/12.7% over FY26– FY28, supported by healthy cement demand growth, capacity expansion, operational efficiencies, and continued focus on premiumization.

Shree Cement (SRCM) delivered resilient performance with Q4FY26 EBITDA surging 45% QoQ (18% ahead of our estimates), though down 9% YoY.

Cement volume growth expected at ~8% CAGR over FY26-28E: After a muted 9MFY26, company's volume growth picked-up sharply in Q4FY26 (+9.5% YoY, +23.8% QoQ), leading to 1.3% YoY growth for FY26. Capacity utilisation stood at ~66% in Q4 (vs ~54% in Q3FY26). Though the focus remains on profitability, company guides 9-10% volume growth for FY27E led by better demand, capacity expansions and further improvement in utilisation levels. Management stated that they have already benefited from its pricing strategy and closed the pricing gap with top players. On capacity front, company is expanding in...

Healthy volumeled recovery: Volumes grew ~9.5% YoY to ~10.8mnt, driving ~7.8% YoY revenue growth in Q4FY26

Management guided for ~40mt cement volumes in FY27 Total cost inflation of ~INR150-200/t is expected in Q1FY27 SRCM reported inline std operating performance in Q4FY26, led by strong volume growth of 9.5% YoY and blended NSR growth of 3.7%QoQ (cement NSR up 1.6%QoQ). Improvement in NSR was driven by price hikes, efforts on narrowing pricing gap with leader over last one year and higher premium product share. Freight costs increased due to increase in lead distance by 12km QoQ while other expenses declined on higher operating leverage. RM/t was higher but P&F costs were inline on fuel inventory,...

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) 4QFY26 operating performance was in line with our estimates. EBITDA declined ~11% YoY to INR12.5b (due to cost pressure) and EBITDA/t declined ~19% YoY to INR1,161 (estimated INR1,139).

Focus on improving utilisation to drive growth About the stock: Shree Cement is the 3rd largest cement producer in India with Shree Cement's revenue has grown by 8% CAGR over FY22-25, while EBITDA has grown by 13.6% over the same period Q3FY26 performance: Revenue increased by 4.3% YoY to Rs 4416.4 crore, mainly led by improvement in realization by 5.1% YoY. Sales volumes remained muted (0.8% YoY) to 7.9 mtpa. Sequentially, revenue is up 2.6%, led by 10.1% QoQ volume growth while realisation declined 6.8% QoQ. EBITDA/ton declined by 8.4% YoY (8.2% QoQ) to Rs 989/ton. Absolute EBITDA decreased by 9.1% YoY (+1.1% QoQ) to...

SRCM revenue grew ~4%/3% YoY/QoQ to Rs44.2bn in Q3FY26, driven by better realisations and premium mix; realisation QoQ softens

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) 3QFY26 EBITDA at INR9.2b dipped 3% YoY and was ~9% below our estimate, mainly due to lower-than-estimated volume and realization/t. This was, however, partly offset by lower opex/t. EBITDA/t at INR1,049 declined 4% YoY (est. INR1,077).

Reported PAT increased 197.6% YoY to Rs. 277cr owing to higher topline and lower finance costs (-10.5% YoY). The company's focus on value-over-volume strategy and premiumisation helped services tax rates on cement to 18% from 28%, which is expected to boost cement demand in the long term. Additionally, stable employment and low inflation are expected to boost demand, driving growth in infrastructure development and the housing sector, which will be favourable for cement demand. The company's focus on increasing the share of green power is expected to drive its growth better...

Shree Cement (SRCM) has been comparatively slower than its peers in terms of capacity expansion in one of its core markets in the north region, which led to market share loss for SRCM and also risks its pricing strategy over the medium term.

Near-term profitability is likely to remain constrained by elevated input costs and subdued pricing in key regions. Nonetheless, a post-monsoon recovery in demand, improving plant utilization, and commissioning of new capacities are expected to support a gradual earnings rebound.

Shree Cement reported a resilient performance in Q2FY26 despite seasonal headwinds, supported by premiumization and cost discipline. Revenue rose 15% YoY to Rs43bn down 12% QoQ driven by stronger realizations and an improved product mix, while EBITDA increased 46% YoY to Rs8.5bn, translating to Rs1,049/t up 44% YoY. PAT surged 198% YoY to Rs2.8bn, underscoring robust margin recovery. Cement volumes grew 6.8% YoY to 7.9mn tonnes, though sequentially lower due to extended monsoons and softer North India demand. Realizations improved to Rs4,840/t, aided by the premium segment's share...

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Shree Cement (SRCM) reported standalone EBITDA (adjusted) at Rs8.75bn (up 48% YoY, albeit down 29% QoQ), which came in ~10% below our estimate. In contrast to its weak YoY volume growth (-8%) in Q1FY26, SRCM reported ~4% growth in Q2FY26 which is in line with the industry growth estimate.

About the stock: Shree Cement is the 3rd largest cement producer in India with Continuous focus on operational efficiencies to further improve EBITDA/ton: Company's EBITDA/ton improved substantially YoY to 1235/ton in H1FY26, primarily due to better realizations as company remains focused on increasing share of premium product portfolio (reached 21% of trade sales in Q2FY26). Going ahead, though we expect company's EBITDA/ton to remain flattish in H2FY26 (as compared to H1FY26), but full year FY26E EBITDA/ton would be significantly better on YoY basis. Moreover, profitability is expected to improve...