Shree Cements Ltd. share price forecast

Sobha: Sobha (SDL) reported the highest-ever annual presales of 4.9msf (+22% YoY), valued at INR 38.7bn. Bengaluru accounted for 68% of total presales volume (vs 67% in FY23). SDL expects contribution from Bengaluru to come down to 55% over the next few years. The residential launch pipeline stands at 13.2msf, with 61% of launches planned for the Bengaluru market. SDL recorded the best-ever cash inflow of INR 12.9bn (+32%/+22% YoY/QoQ) on the back of best-ever residential cash collection of INR 10.6bn. This resulted in overall net debt reduction by 13% QoQ to INR 23.4bn. In FY22, SDL took an average price hike of 6% YoY and it expects a similar hike in FY23. On the back of this and increasing interest rate, it expects volume to remain flat in FY23, with presales value growth in low double digits. Currently, ~80% of its customers opt for housing loans. We maintain BUY, with a reduced TP of INR 902/sh to factor in rising cost of capital resulting in higher WACC. NTPC: Generation/sales increased 3.0%/2.4% YoY to 79.9/73.9bn units in Q4FY22 on higher YoY base, led by improved demand. Coal PAF improved marginally in Q4 to 89.6%, vs 89.1% YoY, but coal PLF was down at 76.1%, vs 77.1% YoY. Under-recovery came in at INR4.5bn, vs INR6.0bn YoY, while surcharge income declined to INR1.6bn, vs INR6.2bn YoY. Consequently, after adjusting for one-offs, adj PAT increased 19% YoY to INR45.6bn, above our estimate. Overdue reduced to INR42.7bn vs INR56.6bn YoY and INR45bn QoQ. NTPC has 3.4GW of RES capacity under...

Hence we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock and roll over our estimates to FY24 and value the company at 16x (18x earlier) of its FY24E EV/EBITDA to arrive at a target price of Rs 20,430 ( Rs 24,700/share earlier), implying a downside of 7% from CMP.

Shree Cement Limited provides building materials. The company manufactures and sells cement and cement products in India. The company currently operates with a total cement capacity of 44.4mpta of which...

Other income rose 5.90% to Rs 113.85 crore. PBIDT fell 22.28% to Rs 959.05 crore. Provision for interest fell 9.43% to Rs 53.91 crore. PBDT fell 22.93% to Rs 905.14 crore. Provision for depreciation fell 11.47% to Rs 285.3 crore. Profit before tax down 27.26% to Rs 619.84 crore. Share of profit/loss were nil in both the periods. Provision for tax was expense of Rs 137.14...

Other new capex includes 1) setting up of new integrated unit with 3.5 MT GU and 3.8 MT clinker unit in Rajasthan by Q4FY24E, 2) 3 MT grinding unit in West Bengal by Q4FY23E, 3) 106 MW solar power The entire total capex of | 4750 crore till FY24E will be funded via internal accruals. Total domestic capacity to reach 53.4 MT post these expansions Expected to continue to maintain its cost leadership, market share due to...

Torrent Power: Torrent Power (TPW) reported strong Q3FY22 result, surpassing consensus estimate. Consolidated revenue increased 27.6% YoY to INR 37.7bn, largely led by higher merchant sales, lower T&D losses, and gain from sale of LNG. This led to EBITDA rising 7.3% YoY to INR9.3bn. Deleveraging and a fall in interest rates have led to lower interest expenses. PAT increased by 14.8% YoY to INR3.7bn, surpassing ours and consensus estimates. While PLF across its gas-based stations has declined due to rise in LNG prices, TPW has managed to maintain its PAF, ensuring recovery of fixed charges. We maintain our TP of INR555 as well as the REDUCE rating, since the stock, having risen steeply recently, is looking less attractive at the current CMP. Brigade Enterprises: BRGD reported presales of 1.1msf (-29%/-17% YoY/QoQ), valued at INR 6.8bn (-26%/-18% YoY/QoQ). In retail segment, consumption recovered to 100% of pre-COVID level in Q3FY20. However, 15% of the tenants will still get COVID relief in Q4FY22, specifically the impacted sectors. BRGD expects to book 70-75% of pre-COVID rentals in FY22. Hospitality segment witnessed strong demand revival and became GOP positive, with occupancy at 59% in Q3FY22, which is the pre-COVID level vs 45% in Q2; the ARR touched 70% of the pre-COVID level. Given BEL's strong cash position of INR 13.1bn, strong business development pipeline, and healthy balance sheet, we remain constructive. We maintain ADD, with an unchanged TP of INR 530. We have cut our FY23/24 estimates to factor in higher input costs/interest/depreciation. Birla Corporation: We maintain our BUY rating...

Shree Cement Limited provides building materials. The company manufactures and sells cement and cement products in India. The company currently operates with a total cement capacity of 44.4mpta of which...

Quarter ended Sep 2021 compared with Quarter ended Sep 2020. Net sales (including other operating income) of Shree Cement has increased 2.82% to Rs 3373.38 crore. Operating profit margin has declined from 31.06% to 27.30%, leading to 9.63% decline in operating profit to Rs 920.96 crore. Raw material cost as a % of total sales (net of stock adjustments) increased from 7.21% to 7.32%. Purchase of finished goods cost rose from 0.05% to 0.70%. Employee cost increased from 6.10% to 6.62%. Other expenses rose...

Hence we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock. We value the company at 19x of its FY23E EV/EBITDA to arrive at a target price of Rs 30,000/share, implying an upside of 5% from CMP.

We value SCL at 19x FY23E EV/EBITDA and assign a HOLD rating to the company.

Gujarat State Petronet: Our BUY rating on Gujarat State Petronet with a TP of INR 400 is premised on (1) robust transmission volume growth (+11% CAGR over FY21-23E to 45mmscmd) with increase in gas supply from domestic sources. This should drive volumes and translate to growth in standalone EBITDA at 15% and APAT at 19% CAGR to INR 19bn and INR 13bn in FY23E and (2) compelling valuation at 7.9x FY23E EPS, considering high RoE of 24% in 23E and combined FCF of INR 45bn over FY22-24E. Narayana Health: Narayana Health's (NH) Q1 EBITDA beat estimates by 10%, mainly driven by improved trajectory in the Cayman Islands business (+25% QoQ, 47% margin). COVID has impacted the India business recovery (-3% QoQ), as expected. However, barring the flagship units, the other mature/new units demonstrated robust performance with flat/+870bps QoQ improvement in margin. Despite easing of travel restrictions, NH has been able to sustain patient flow in Cayman Islands, which is encouraging. In India, it plans to increase investments to refurbish and add service offerings at current facilities, which would improve ARPOBs in the long term. While this may increase debt in the near term, the overall net debt/EBITDA would remain comfortable at 1.6x/1.4x for FY22/23e. We raise EBITDA estimates for FY22/23 by 12-13% to factor in higher margin in Cayman Islands and revise the TP to INR575/sh. ADD. Sudarshan Chemical: We maintain a BUY recommendation on Sudarshan Chemical (SCIL) with a target price of INR 830/share. We expect SCIL's PAT to grow at a 26% CAGR over...

Shree Cement (SRCM)'s 1QFY22 result was in-line, with EBITDA up 45% YoY as higher realization was offset by disappointment on cost, leading to weaker EBITDA/t of INR1,482 (v/s our est. of INR1,552/t). Volume growth at 39% YoY, weighed by lower clinker sales, was also weaker v/s peers. We broadly maintain our FY22E/FY23E estimates and expect a 13%/13% volume/EBITDA CAGR over FY2123E. We maintain Neutral as the valuation (18x FY23E EV/EBITDA) prices in earnings growth....

manufactures specialty organic bromine-based chemical compounds as well as specialty inorganic lithium-based chemicals compounds. Neogen has two segments viz. (i) organic chemicals, (ii) inorganic chemicals...

Operating profit margin stood at 0.28%, leading to 48.71% rise in operating profit to Rs 1,022.96 crore. Raw material cost as a % of total sales (net of stock adjustments) decreased from 7.12% to 6.94%. Purchase of finished goods cost rose from 0.16% to 1.27%. Employee...

we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with TP of Rs.29000/share implying an upside of 3% from CMP.

Shree Cement Limited provides building materials. The company manufactures and sells cement and cement products in India. The company currently operates with a total cement capacity of 44.4mpta of which...

Our revised target price of INR 26,500/share is SOTP based - standalone at 16.5x Mar'23 E EBITDA and its UAE subsidiary at 1x BV. Shree Cement: Shree Cement (SRCM) reported healthy volume growth (+15/19% QoQ/YoY) in 4QFY21. However, sharp increase in fixed costs moderated the gains. Unitary cement EBITDA fell 7/10% YoY/QoQ to INR 1,400/MT. During 4Q, Shrees net sales/EBITDA/APAT grew 19/8/23% QoQ (22/9/31% YoY) to INR 39.3/11.8/7.7bn respectively. SRCM continues to deliver industry-leading operating performance and return ratios, owing to its robust cost controls and strong focus on trade sales. On account of its expensive valuations, we retain REDUCE rating.