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Outlook & Valuation: We downgrade our revenue estimates by 7.5% for FY21E to Rs 169.6 bn on accountof downgrade across regions while we introduce FY22E revenue estimates atRs 186 bn.

Valuation and Risks: We downgrade our Revenues by 4.4% / 4.8% for FY21E / FY22E due to downgrade across regions.

Tata Steel (TATA) reported Q4FY20 EBITDA above our/consensus estimates by 12%/8% at Rs46.5bn (up 48% QoQ/down 38% YoY), led by higher than expected earnings in TATA Steel Europe (TSE). While, Indian operations reported earnings in line with our expectation. Stock moved up ~20% over last couple of months in light of improvement in global prices (up 15% from bottom), low input prices and gradual recovery in domestic demand. However, we expect prices to weaken in H2CY20 due to ease in China's pent-up demand and sharp increase in Chinese steel...

We reduce our revenue estimates by 20.1%/ 8.5% for FY21E/ FY22E on account of lockdown due to covid-19. We factor EBITDA loss in H1FY21E leading to reduction in EBITDA margin estimates by 712/ 19 bps for FY21E/ FY22E to 4.9%/ 12.0%. Accordingly, we drastically reduce our PAT estimates by 95.1%/ 13.2% for FY21E/ FY22E. We...

Background: Emami is a FMCG company with niche focus on relatively under penetrated segments such as antiseptic cream, fairness cream, talcum powder, cooling oil, pain balm and pain reliever. Emami's power brands such as Navratna Oil, Boroplus Cream, Zandu & MenthoPlus Balm, Fair & Handsome, Boroplus Powder, Navratna Cool Talc, Fast Relief, SonaChandi & Zandu accounts for 75% of company's sales. Emami sales have grown at a CAGR of 38.5% (FY2010-20)....

Background: Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc (USA) to manufacture and distribute Jockey brand in India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE till 2040. They broadly operate in premium men's innerwear; women's innerwear and leisure wear segments. Jockey enjoys high brand recall and they spend ~5% of their annual sales for brand building and promotional activity, which enables them to dominate most of the segments in which they operate. They are also exclusive licensee of Speedo swimwear brand in India. Page has network in ~250 cities and ~760 exclusive brand outlets in India. They...

It has expanded its dealer network to 11200 from 10500 last year, while also developing suppliers, sourcing 78% of its needs from local suppliers/MSME. They have bolstered their board strength with senior industry people like BP Rao, ex CMD, BHEL and SS Mundra, ex DY Governor, RBI as replacement to board members completing terms. Interestingly, employee strength fell 12%, from 6,536 to 5,781- the first time in 5 years, after a CAGR of 13% from FY16-19, as part of its delayering and cost rationalization. Further observation is that per employee cost (Emp...

Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF) 4QFY20 performance was weak. A sharp decline in domestic M&HCV; sales adversely affected its domestic revenue (-54% YoY). Export revenue also plunged 40% YoY, driven by slowdown in the Class 8 truck segment. EBITDA margin contracted 363bps YoY to 16.5%, due to a negative operating leverage, while PAT (reported loss Rs 63mn) was suppressed by a higher depreciation and interest cost. The company is in the midst of a demand slump in the domestic CV and...

Berger Paints (BRGR) result was below expectations. Revenue on standalone basis declined at a higher rate compared to Asian Paints (APNT) largely due to higher stress in industrial coatings. However, on consolidated basis, Berger outperformed APNT led by (i) strong performance of a subsidiary in Poland (41% international revenue share, 4% PAT margin) led by higher exposure to external insulation and construction projects business which were not subject to lock-down (ii) inclusion of STP LTD revenue (acquired in Nov'19). Gross margin expansion is likely to sustain led by deflationary raw material cost trend. Only 10% of raw material is imported from China, hence no...

Ascribe 9x EV/EBIDTA to FY22 EBIDTA and 1x EV/sales eachtopharmacyandAHLLbusinesses;significantlybelow consensusonvaluationgiventhesubparoperatingmetrics...