724.25 -2.45 (-0.34%)
NSEOct 26, 2020 02:59 PM
The 37 reports from 12 analysts offering long term price targets for Havells India Ltd. have an average target of 596.42. The consensus estimate represents a downside of -17.65% from the last price of 724.25.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-09-24||Havells India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||659.05||635.00||659.05 (9.89%)||-12.32||Neutral|
24 September 2020 its entry into the Refrigerator product category with the launch of 25 new models of Direct Cool, Frost Free, and Side by Side refrigerators. Going ahead, the company aims to launch 25 additional refrigerator models and a new range of dishwashers by Diwali 2020. Assuming INR10k as the price of the base model (190-liter Direct Cool refrigerator) implies a 1213% discount on a like-to-like basis v/s products offered by key brands such as LG, Samsung, and Whirlpool. The new products launched would be available across pan-India Lloyd brand stores, offline dealers, and Lloyd online e-stores. Top 3 players in the Refrigerator category LG, Samsung, and Whirlpool occupy ~80% market share. Videocons exit has resulted in market share gains for the Top 3 players, with Whirlpool being the biggest beneficiary owing to an attractive pricing point).
|2020-07-29||Havells India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||570.45||630.00||570.45 (26.96%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
Significant cost savings help restrict fall in margin Gross margins fell ~270 bps YoY mainly due to change in mix and delay in passing on higher raw material prices. However, sharp fall in advertisement expenditure (0.4% in Q1FY21 vs. 5% in Q1FY20), 44% and 27% YoY decline in employee cost and other expenditure during Q1FY21, restricted fall in EBITDA margin to 8.8%. The management expects a recovery in sales to...
|2020-07-28||Havells India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||583.15||530.00||583.15 (24.20%)||26.82||Sell|
|2020-07-28||Havells India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||570.45||525.00||570.45 (26.96%)||27.51||Sell|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Havells India (HIL) reported 46% YoY decline in revenue at Rs14.8bn, impacted by COVID-19 lockdown, but it was 25%/14% above our/consensus estimates. Recovery was decent in May (60% of YoY sales), while June sales grew 4% YoY, primarily driven by B2C sales (70% of total). June sales growth was led by pent-up demand and market share gains. Sales of Electrical product categories (cables/switchgears/lighting/ECD) declined in 41%-46% range YoY while Lloyd revenue fell 53% YoY. Gross margin fell 280bps YoY to 34.7%. EBITDA fell 53% YoY to Rs1.3bn, leading to 150bps YoY decline in EBITDA margin to 8.8%. But, EBITDA margin was above our/consensus estimates of 5.4%/4.9%. The decline in EBITDA margin was restricted by...
|2020-07-27||Havells India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||595.20||610.00||595.20 (21.68%)||Target met||Accumulate|
We maintain our ADD rating on HAVELLS, VOLTAS and CROMPTON and REDUCE rating on V-GUARD and SYMPHONY. We initiate coverage on TTK PRESTIGE with an ADD. In the current unprecedented time, when COVID-19 has impacted all consumption categories, consumer durables (CD) have also witnessed immense pressure. In such a phase, where earnings may see high volatility in the near term, we are trying to analyse the underlying strength of categories and companies. Our CD universe has clocked 10x and 18x revenue and EBITDA in the past 17 years. We believe the sector still has multi-year strong growth potential, which would be driven by (1) penetration, (2) product diversification, (3) market share gains, (4) shift from unorganised to organised, (5) high scope in rural and (6) largely untapped global opportunity. The governments consistent Make in India push is further making the sector attractive, opening up various possibilities of manufacturing incentives. The sector is trading at 42x P/E (one-year forward), having seen a sharp re-rating in the past 10 years (20x in 2010). We believe category winners will further gain market share in the current phase and command valuation premiums.
|2020-07-27||Havells India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||575.90||560.00||575.90 (25.76%)||-22.68||Neutral|
27 July 2020 While revenue decline of 45% YoY was in line with our expectations, aggressive cost rationalization measures led to a strong beat in earnings. Employee costs were also lower by 27% YoY on account of certain voluntary actions, which should normalize from 2QFY21. As demand recovers, we expect the large part of these cost elements to scale back. However, the outlook remains hazy due to the local lockdowns; hence, the management appears cautious on extrapolating the June run-rate to the coming quarters. The results of peers suggest that with a demand level of 8085% v/s last year in July, Factoring cost savings in 1QFY21, we increase our FY21/FY22 EPS estimates by 14%/4%. The deterioration in working capital was disappointing, but this should normalize in the coming quarters. Maintain Revenue declined 45% to INR14.8b and was in line with our expectation.
|2020-07-27||Havells India Ltd.||Yes Securities||578.50||493.00||578.50 (25.19%)||31.93||Sell|
|2020-07-27||Havells India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||583.15||524.00||583.15 (24.20%)||27.65||Sell|
HAVL's management remains cautious on the sustainability of the demand trends witnessed in May and June given localized lockdowns adversely impacting business operations. HAVL's consumer portfolio has bounced back faster, however, road to recovery in the B2B portfolio (30% of sales), comprising of industrial cables, switchgears, professional luminaire is likely...
|2020-06-30||Havells India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||574.40||574.40 (26.09%)||Accumulate|
Current state of business: Business has normalised currently, post washout in April and sub-normal business in May. Demand at consumer level is being witnessed across categories. Management is not witnessing any down-trading in different product categories; hence, don't foresee major risk to realizations. Recovery has been swifter in rural India. Tier 1 and 2 cities are still not doing well in terms of demand as key distribution centres in metros are not fully functional due to local regulations. Havells is at marginal disadvantage due to comparatively lower presence in rural markets. Industrial demand has not picked up yet. However, some green shoots are visible in the form of government orders. Capacity utilisation of plants has reached normalised levels. Company has sorted out labour issues. Havells India - Takeaways from call recently hosted by HDFC Securities Institutional team
|2020-06-29||Havells India Ltd.||Dolat Capital||581.05||504.00||581.05 (24.65%)||30.41||Sell|
It has expanded its dealer network to 11200 from 10500 last year, while also developing suppliers, sourcing 78% of its needs from local suppliers/MSME. They have bolstered their board strength with senior industry people like BP Rao, ex CMD, BHEL and SS Mundra, ex DY Governor, RBI as replacement to board members completing terms. Interestingly, employee strength fell 12%, from 6,536 to 5,781- the first time in 5 years, after a CAGR of 13% from FY16-19, as part of its delayering and cost rationalization. Further observation is that per employee cost (Emp...
|2020-05-28||Havells India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||496.25||528.00||496.25 (45.94%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Havells India Ltd (HAVL) is a leading player in electrical consumer goods in India. Its key verticals include switchgears, cables & wires, lighting fixtures and consumer appliances. We downgrade HAVL to Accumulate from Buy on account earnings downgrade. However, we believe that current headwinds have been priced-in. We expect a gradual revival in demand starting from H2FY21E, as situation normalises....
|2020-05-14||Havells India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||486.85||510.00||486.85 (48.76%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Havells India (HIL) reported 20% YoY decline in revenue at Rs22.1bn, 9%/14% below our/consensus estimates, owing to de-growth across all the segments impacted by COVID-19 lockdown. Performance in January-February 2020 was decent and ex-COVID HIL would have grown by 9% YoY in 4QFY20 as per the management. ECD segment revenue fell 14% YoY to Rs4.6bn while Cables revenue declined 24% YoY to Rs6.8bn. Lighting and Switchgears revenue declined 31%/14% YoY to Rs2.6bn/Rs3.5bn, respectively, owing to slowdown in real estate and infrastructure sectors which further worsened post COVID-19. Lloyd fell 14% YoY to Rs4.6bn due to loss of sales of ACs in March. Gross margin fell 70bps YoY to 36.2% due to product mix...
|2020-05-14||Havells India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||475.75||575.00||475.75 (52.23%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
The cable and lighting segment of the company reported a sharp decline in revenue by 24% and 31%, respectively, in Q4FY20. The company reported strong demand traction in January-February 2020 wherein Lloyd, ECD and switchgear businesses grew 45%, 23% and 15%, respectively. The lockdown situation in March dragged down overall revenue for Q4FY20. According to the management, had the lockdown not happened, the Q4 revenue could have grown 9% YoY (translates to ~| 800 crore of revenue loss in last 15 days of March 2020). We expect a gradual recovery in demand...
|2020-05-13||Havells India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||500.95||500.95 (44.58%)||Results Update|
However, due to the loss of sales of summer products and weak demand environment, we cut our EPS estimates by 8-9% for FY21/FY22 (28/23% cut in our 4QFY20 preview). We value Havells at 36x on Mar-22E EPS, and derive a TP of Rs 515. Maintain ADD. Havells' clocked 20% revenue dip in 4QFY20 due to high revenue contribution from the last 12-15 days of March (~25% mix). However, co was witnessing strong recovery with ~9% growth for the quarter (ex-Covid) after posting weak show in 9MFY20 (-1% in 9MFY20 and -10% in 3QFY20). Lloyd recovery pre-Covid was strong led by various initiatives taken by the company. Besides, Havells has managed its cost very effectively and posted strong 11% EBITDA margin. With pressure led by negative oplev, most appliances companies will face pressure on sustaining margins. Additionally, the co is well positioned in terms of its working capital to ride out the disruption caused by Covid-19. Our expectation of a recovery by Havells, albeit delayed, remains intact.
|2020-05-13||Havells India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||486.85||485.00||486.85 (48.76%)||Target met||Sell|
Initial recovery in demand to be pull based rather than push based. We cut HAVL's FY21/FY22 EPS by 13% and 7% given Covid-19 led disruption in demand especially in summer season products (Room AC, Air coolers) and longer recovery cycle in industrial products (industrial cables & switchgears, professional luminaries). We expect demand for HAVL's consumer portfolio to bounce back faster led by ECD segment, however B2B segments will remain a near term drag. Slump in switchgears and cables is likely to get...
|2020-05-13||Havells India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||500.95||515.00||500.95 (44.58%)||Target met||Neutral|
Lost sales on account of COVID-19 were higher than expected at INR8b (or 25% of 4QFY20), resulting in 13%/16% miss in revenue/adj. We have cut our FY21E/F22E earnings by 30%/13% as we have factored in (a) the likely lost sales in 1QFY21 as well as the weak primary sales in the UCP segment for FY21 until inventory normalizes, and (b) the weak industrial activity related sales in cables and wires and the switchgear segment. The company lost 25% sales due to the Excluding the COVID-19 crisis, 4QFY20 could have seen growth of 9% YoY. Industrial sales make up 20-22% of HAVLs revenue, the rest is consumer We have cut our FY21E/F22E earnings by 30%/13% as we have factored in (a) the likely lost sales in 1QFY21 as well as the weak primary sales in the UCP segment for FY21 until inventory normalizes, and (b) the weak industrial activity related sales in cables and wires and the switchgear segment.
|2020-04-15||Havells India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||528.60||649.00||528.60 (37.01%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-03-30||Havells India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||480.45||575.00||480.45 (50.74%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Our interaction with managements and dealers indicates significant prebuying activity of consumer goods during January-February 2020 on fears of supply related issues from China. While companies have secured supplies to avoid any disturbance in sales in Q4FY20, demand was negatively impacted in March 2020 owing to holiday and post that lockdown across countries. We also believe a late recovery in demand for consumer goods will also impact Q1FY21 performance due to 1) shortage of workers (due to heavy migration), 2) shift in focus on essential goods compared to discretionary products and 3) streamlining of supply chain....
|2020-01-31||Havells India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||602.80||602.80 (20.15%)||Buy|
Crompton's performance has been luke-warm over the last 4-6 qtrs resulting in stock underperformance (de-rating). We believe both segments (ECD and lighting) need to fire together for the stock to re-rate (possible in FY20). Market share gains in fans, success in appliances, GTM benefits, cost savings program and acceleration in B-B lighting will be the key medium term drivers. Reasonable valuations along with structural long-term initiatives drives our BUY rating. Cromptons weak lighting show continued to overshadow strength in ECD. ECD posted 11% growth despite several macro headwinds (Havells posted flat). Market share gain in fans and strong volume growth for appliances led the growth. While, lighting remained a drag and posted 11% decline in revenues. Price erosion in LED and weak order flows from Govt/EESL continued to impact lighting despite healthy volume growth. We model weak revenue growth for lighting for two more quarters (price erosion happened in July19). Co is committed to invest distribution and branding to drive premiumisation and market share gain for fans and lighting. We cut EPS by 2% for FY20-22 to factor weak lighting show. Weak lighting show is also overshadowing valuation potential of ECD business. We value the co at 35x on Dec-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 333. Maintain BUY.
|2020-01-29||Havells India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||602.80||666.00||602.80 (20.15%)||Target met||Hold|
Geojit BNP Paribas
We upgrade HAVL to Hold as we believe that near term demand headwinds as well as earnings downgrades have already been factored in stock price. Q3 Revenue declined by 10% YoY on account of weak macros, tight liquidity situations, slowdown in infrastructure spending and muted consumer sentiments impacted overall demand scenario. EBITDA margin was stable at 11.8% due to cost rationalisation. PAT grew by modest 2.4% YoY supported by tax cut. We lower our EPS estimates by 9.2% & 8.6% for FY20E & FY21E, as we factor the impact of Q3 on our estimates....