Latest broker research reports from IDBI Capital buy, sell, hold, neutral recommendations along with target prices forecast and upside.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||LTP||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2019-06-12||Mutual Funds News||IDBI Capital||Economy Update|
|2019-06-10||Energy and Power||IDBI Capital||Sector Update|
Singapore Gross Refining margin (GRM) declined 29% MoM to average at US$3.0/bbl for the month of May'19 owing to lower crack spreads from Naphtha and Gasoline partially offset by Jet Kero and Gasoil. US refinery utilization improved slightly by 1.7% MoM to average at 90.1% for the month of May'19. Arab Light-Arab Heavy differential remained flat MoM at US$1.7/bbl whereas INR also remained flat MoM to average at Rs69.8/US$ in the month of May'19. On Natural Gas space, LNG prices rose marginally by 1% MoM to average at US$4.9/mmbtu in May'19 on the back of lower demand from China and Japan and rapid rise in new liquefaction capacity. Domestically, petroleum products sales declined by 5.5% MoM and improved 0.4% YoY to 17.8mmt in April'19 mainly due to 16% MoM dip in LPG, 14.1% in Petrol and 9% in ATF. PNGRB has finally issued the long awaited tariff orders for their HVJ/DVPL, Mumbai regional network and First phase of JHDBPL pipeline. While tariff orders were below street expectations of 12%-14%, it was in-line to our estimates. The tariff orders cover an estimated 92% of overall volumes of GAIL. We remain positive on structural...
|2019-06-07||Brokerage Research R..||IDBI Capital||Economy Update|
|2019-06-06||Brokerage Research R..||IDBI Capital||Top Picks|
|2019-06-03||Brokerage Research R..||IDBI Capital||Economy Update|
|2019-05-29||Ashoka Buildcon Ltd.||IDBI Capital||137.20||199.00||154.40 (-11.14%)||45.04||Buy|
Ashoka Buildcon Ltd (ASBL) has reported extremely good set of result for 4QFY19 with revenue of Rs13bn, +86% YoY, vs. our expectations of Rs9.1bn. The beat was driven by better execution among most under construction HAM projects, TOT EPC project (along with another EPC project in Maharashtra) and power projects in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The management has guided for 25-30% growth in FY20 which has upside potential depending on the order inflow in this year. We are building in 21% revenue and 14% EBITDA CAGR over FY19-21 in our estimates. Given the clarification by the management that there is a two year extension in closing the deal with PE investor, we believe that near term stock...
|2019-05-29||PNC Infratech Ltd.||IDBI Capital||207.40||244.00||190.55 (8.84%)||17.65||Buy|
PNC Infratech Ltd (PNC) has reported good set of result for 4QFY19 with revenue of Rs10.8bn against our expectations of Rs9.1bn and adj. PAT of Rs740mn vs. expectation of Rs720mn. EBITDA margin at 14.1% was in line with our estimate of 14.0% whereas reported PAT was higher due to write back of excess tax provisions of earlier years. Revenue and EBITDA, adjusted for Rs582mn bonus received in 4QFY18 is up 54% and 47% respectively. The management has guided for 45-50% growth in FY20 along with Rs60-70bn of new order inflow. We have increased our EPS estimates for FY20 and FY21 substantially by 28% and 30% respectively to incorporate higher execution. Moreover, we have not factored in the...
|2019-05-29||GAIL (India) Ltd.||IDBI Capital||305.70||405.00||356.50 (-14.25%)||32.48||Buy|
GAIL's Q4FY19 result was a miss to our estimate owing to lower profits from Petchem and Gas trading segment. Revenue/Adj. PAT increased by 21.6%/13% YoY to Rs187bn/Rs11bn whereas EBITDA remained flattish YoY at Rs16.8bn in Q4FY19. Gas trading volume increased 10% YoY to 98mmscmd whereas gas transmission volume grew by 3% YoY to 109mmscmd. The company has already booked ~90% of US LNG volume in CY20 which provides positive growth outlook. We slightly tweak our TP to...
|2019-05-27||Cipla Ltd.||IDBI Capital||545.15||605.00||577.50 (-5.60%)||10.98||Accumulate|
Cipla reported stronger results in Q4 and beat our Revenue/EBIDTA and PAT estimates by 7%/22%/40%, thanks to launch of gSensipar during March'19 and ramp up in other products. gSensipar has been launched at risk' and it contributed $40mn of revenue, which came as a positive surprise. The management has guided for double digit growth in most of geographies and re-iterated to launch at least one limited competition product in US during each quarter. The supply constraints it faced during past few quarters are resolved now and therefore the growth momentum is likely to be stable. We expect a revenue/PAT CAGR of 12%/16% over FY19-21E. We have revised our price...
|2019-05-24||Brokerage Research R..||IDBI Capital||Economy Update|
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has won the election with even better majority paving the way for continuity We expect Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to see dual benefits. 1) INR appreciation, we see a high probability, will benefit OMCs as for every Re 1 appreciation, under recoveries of the OMCs will decrease by ~Rs50 bn p.a.; 2) Correction on crude prices also augers well for profitability of OMCs. These factors are positive for HPCL, BPCL and IOCL. We are also positive on BFSI sector especially banks. We prefer PSU banks like SBI over private banks. Within private banks we like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Federal Bank. We would avoid NBFCs as the liquidity and NPA crisis is still not over. We will have to monitor as to how the government will handle the credit crisis. However, we are positive on select high quality companies like Cholamandalam Financial Holdings and Sundaram Finance....
|2019-05-23||Astral Poly Technik ..||IDBI Capital||1285.00||1255.00||1231.10 (4.38%)||Target met||Sell|
Astral Poly Technik's (Astral) Q4FY19 result was largely in-line to our forecast. Revenue grew by 19% YoY to Rs7.7bn. While EBITDA remained flattish on a YoY basis at Rs1.2bn owing to higher other expenses, Adj. PAT declined 13% YoY to Rs611mn. Plastic segment (Inclusive of Rex) witnessed volume growth of 23% YoY to 38,877mt whereas EBITDA just grew by 9.7% YoY to Rs977mn owing to higher expenses. Further, Adhesive business revenue increased by 19% YoY to Rs1.8bn while EBITDA declined by 22% YoY to Rs250mn due to higher branding expenses. We largerly keep our estimates unchanged and introduce FY21 financials and expect its revenue/EBITDA/PAT to see a...
|2019-05-23||IndusInd Bank Ltd.||IDBI Capital||1403.05||1955.00||1597.90 (-12.19%)||39.34||Buy|
With IL&FS; pain now largely behind, momentum in balance sheet continued with a loan/ deposit growth of 29% driven by across segments. NII growth remained muted at 11% due to a one-off interest reversal, whereas, non-interest income came in strong at a 29% YoY growth. As guided by the bank earlier, it intended to start FY20 afresh, hence it recognized its entire IL&FS; exposure as NPA and provided heftily for the same. Following the blow, GNPA/NNPA detoriated to 2.1/1.2% by 97/62bps sequentially. Although the quarter took a one time hit and turned out to be a drag on the bottom-line, there are not many uncertainties left to cast a hang on the book in the new financial year. Its exposure to Zee, DHFL and ADAG along with a few others stands at...
Nifty Weekly option volatility for puts has crossed 100% levels and in some option has reached beyond 150%. For example 10100 PE to 9900 PE are trading at volatility of in excess of 150%. While volatility for call options have not gone beyond110%. Such huge Volatility Differential indicates that there can be...
|2019-05-22||Tech Mahindra Ltd.||IDBI Capital||734.25||829.00||750.00 (-2.10%)||12.90||Accumulate|
TECHM's Q4FY19 result was a slight miss to our forecast. Revenue remained unchanged QoQ in CC vs. our forecast of +1% QoQ. This and INR appreciation resulted in EBIT margin declining by 70bps QoQ to 15.4% (-35bps adjusted for one-time charge). EPS of Rs12.8, -6%/-7.8% QoQ/YoY missed our forecast by ~7%. In Q4, TECHM has secured large deals with TCV of US$408 mn taking the TCV for FY19 to ~US$1.7 bn. TECHM has maintained its high single-digit revenue growth outlook for FY20 and now expects Communication vertical (42.7% of revenue) to lead the growth. We factor Q4FY19 miss and trim our FY20E revenue (in US$)/EPS by 1.8%/2.9% and also...
|2019-05-21||Bharat Petroleum Cor..||IDBI Capital||378.20||412.00||375.35 (0.76%)||Target met||Buy|
BPCL's Q4FY19 result was a beat to our forecast owing to strong marketing profit and inventory gain. Revenue was up by 13.4% YoY to Rs739.9bn, EBITDA/PAT was up 29.1%/16.9% YoY to Rs48bn/Rs31.2bn respectively. Core GRM remained weaker like other OMCs, in line with our expectation, at US$2.6/bbl vs US$5.6/bbl in Q4FY18. We are still awaiting for the turnaround in GRM at Kochi terminal as FY19 GRM of US$3.6/bbl was lower than Singapore benchmark. We introduce FY21 financials and roll over our valuation which gives a new TP of Rs412. As the stock has already given 17%...
|2019-05-21||Hindustan Petroleum ..||IDBI Capital||294.35||288.00||286.00 (2.92%)||Target met||Buy|
HPCL's Q4FY19 result came above our expectation mainly driven by highest-ever marketing profit and sales volume. Revenue was up 11.7% YoY to Rs679bn while EBITDA/PAT was up 76.8%/69.9% YoY to Rs51.6/29.7bn. Reported GRM stood at US$4.5/bbl as against US$7.4/bbl in Q4FY18. We expect marketing margin to remain higher compared to its three years average which would continue to support marketing profit. We introduce FY21 financials and roll over our valuation which gives a new TP of Rs288 from Rs262 earlier. Since stock has already run-up over 30% since our last report, we downgrade the stock to HOLD from BUY on valuation....
|2019-05-21||Shree Cements Ltd.||IDBI Capital||19960.00||17560.00||20550.00 (-2.87%)||-12.02||Hold|
Shree Cement's Q4FY19 results were in line with our expectations with EBITDA of Rs8.5bn, up 35% YoY, largely driven by lower operating costs and healthy volumes. The company reported sales/PAT of Rs32.8bn/Rs3.2bn. Lower than expected PAT is on account of higher depreciation related to the new clinker line at Karnataka and lower than expected other income. Total operating costs per tonne declined by 4% QoQ and 2% YoY. Volume at 7.3mnMT is up 14% YoY compared to our expectation of 12% growth. Aggregate EBITDA/mt at Rs1,161 is up 18% YoY. We have tweaked our FY20 estimates and introduce FY21 numbers. We have also moved our valuation forward to...
|2019-05-21||Indian Oil Corporati..||IDBI Capital||155.15||160.00||153.55 (1.04%)||Target met||Buy|
IOCL's Q4FY19 result came above our forecast on all fronts led by higher than expected marketing profits, inventory gain and forex gains. Revenue was up 7.5% YoY to Rs1.3tr. While EBITDA was marginally down 1.3% YoY to Rs108.7 bn, PAT was up 16.9% YoY due to higher other income which increased to Rs10.6bn in Q4FY19 vs. Rs2.4bn in Q4FY18. Reported GRM stood at US$4.1/bbl in Q4FY19 while core GRM stood at US$3.0/bbl. Ennore LNG terminal commissioned in March'19 and started LNG supply to Manali refinery and other anchor customers. We introduce FY21 financials while keeping FY20E largerly unchanged. We roll over our TP to FY21E which gives a new TP of Rs160 (6x...
|2019-05-20||Bajaj Auto Ltd.||IDBI Capital||2837.00||2670.00||3015.00 (-5.90%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) Q4FY19 result was in-line with our and below consensus estimates at operating level. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 15.7% vs our and consensus estimates of 15.8% and 16.3% respectively. We expect BJAUT domestic motorcycle sales to decline ~2% in FY20 mainly on account of higher base in commuter segment and weak buyer sentiment. We cut our FY20 revenue and earnings estimates by 1%/6% and introduce FY21 estimates. We have built in revenue/earnings CAGR of 8%/8% over FY19-21E with ROE of ~20% and average free cash flow of ~Rs45bn. We change our rating to REDUCE (earlier ACCUMULATE) and revise our TP to Rs2,670 (earlier Rs2,740)...
|2019-05-20||Petronet LNG Ltd.||IDBI Capital||227.90||276.00||236.35 (-3.58%)||21.11||Buy|
Petronet LNG (PLNG) Q4FY19 result was below our forecast owing to higher other operating expenses and inventory loss. Volumes came at 205tbtu (198tbtu at Dahej) slightly above our forecast of 195tbtu. The company expects its Dahej expansion to 17.5mtpa from 15mtpa and Kochi-Mangalore pipeline to commission by June'19 which would boost volume from Q3FY20. Further, the company plans to add another two tanks at Dahej (existing six tanks) at a cost of Rs6 bn over the next three years which would further augment the capacity to 19.5mtpa. We keep FY20 estimates unchanged while introduce FY21 numbers reflecting EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 21.6%/21.8% during...