New Year Pick 2026 Update 03
IDBI Capital
| Summary | Date | Stock | Author | LTP | Target | Price at reco (Change since reco%) |
Upside(%) | Type | Report | Discuss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb 2026 | Market Movement |
IDBI Capital
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Top Picks
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| 09 Feb 2026 | APL Apollo Tubes |
IDBI Capital
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2238.70 | 2169.00 | 2234.60 (0.18%) | -3.11 |
Buy
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Technical pick update- APLAPOLLO Update 02
IDBI Capital
APL Apollo Tubes is showing a well-structured Cup and Handle pattern on the daily timeframe, a formation that often signals trend continuation after a healthy consolidation. The stock has gradually rounded off its base over the past few months, reflecting steady accumulation rather than sharp speculative moves. The recent breakout from the handle portion of the pattern, accompanied by improved volumes, suggests that buyers are...
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| 09 Feb 2026 | Astral |
IDBI Capital
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1532.20 | 1611.00 | 1490.70 (2.78%) | 5.14 |
Hold
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Astral: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Astral Ltd.'s Q3FY26 result was broadly in-line with our estimates on key parameters. above our estimates on key parameters. The polymer industry has faced extreme volatility and uncertainty, though management believes a price bottom has formed with an upward journey now beginning. PVC prices saw a hike of roughly Rs7 in early 2026; the company has passed on Rs5 to the market and expects stabilization after a potential slight further increase. The management observed that on-ground demand started picking up in January and February 2026, leading to a more bullish outlook for the fourth quarter. Q3...
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| 09 Feb 2026 | Repco Home Finance |
IDBI Capital
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424.10 | 440.00 | 416.05 (1.93%) | 3.75 |
Hold
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Repco Home Finance: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Repco Home Finance reported a steady Q3FY26 performance, marked by a sharp pickup in disbursements and continued improvement in asset quality, while profitability remained stable. Disbursements increased ~40% YoY, reflecting management's renewed push toward growth after subdued momentum. NII rose 5% YoY, while PAT grew marginally by 2% YoY. ROA remained steady at ~2.9%. Opex were elevated during the quarter due to one-off employee-related provisions linked to labour code implementation and higher business volumes. Management reiterated its intent to steer the company back to a double-digit growth trajectory,...
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| 09 Feb 2026 | Tata Steel |
IDBI Capital
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208.01 | 223.00 | 202.00 (2.98%) | 7.21 |
Hold
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Tata Steel: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Tata Steel's Q3FY26 performance was above our expectations. Revenue fell 3% QoQ to Rs570bn, driven by 4% QoQ increase in volumes, aided by strong growth in India operations. This was offset by a 6% QoQ decrease in realizations owing to weak steel prices. Consolidated EBITDA declined 11% QoQ to Rs82bn, with EBITDA/t declining 11% QoQ to Rs9,987. UK operations saw EBITDA loss widen to Rs14,199/t in Q3FY26 from Rs13,510/t in Q2FY26 owing to subdued demand and pricing. The Netherland business posted EBITDA of Rs4,068/t, down from Rs5,948/t in Q2FY26 amid pressure from regulatory burdens. The cost...
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| 09 Feb 2026 | Sonata Software |
IDBI Capital
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318.85 | 355.00 | 315.15 (1.17%) | 11.34 |
Buy
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Sonata Software: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Sonata Software delivered a resilient Q3 FY26 performance despite headwinds from a few large clients. Revenue grew marginally QoQ, but profitability improved sharply, with EBITDA rising to ~19.5%, driven by higher utilization, offshore mix improvement, AI-led productivity, and cost optimization, even after absorbing wage hikes and higher cloud costs. The company's strategy as a modernization engineering firm powered by platforms and AI is gaining traction, with AI-led deals now contributing 14% of the order book and cloud/data forming ~50% of the pipeline. Large deal momentum remains strong, with two...
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| 09 Feb 2026 | BLS International |
IDBI Capital
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292.80 | 389.00 | 295.35 (-0.86%) | 32.86 |
Buy
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BLS International (BLS): Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
BLS International Services delivered a strong Q3FY26 performance, reflecting robust execution across visa and digital services. Consolidated revenue grew 44% YoY in Q3 and 46% in nine months, while PAT rose 33% and 36% respectively, nearly matching last year's full-year revenue within nine months. Higher visa application volumes drove growth, better net revenue per application, new global contract wins, and consolidation of recent acquisitions. The visa and consular segment showed healthy operating advantage, with EBITDA margins improving to ~40% due to higher volumes and a shift toward a self-managed model. Digital...
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| 09 Feb 2026 | Apeejay Surrendra |
IDBI Capital
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132.02 | 175.00 | 126.55 (4.32%) | 32.56 |
Buy
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Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd.'s (ASPHL) Q3FY26 result was in-line with our estimates on key parameters. The management guided that the Indian hospitality sector is experiencing a sustained uptrend, driven by a robust recovery in corporate travel, a thriving wedding season, and resilient domestic leisure demand across major urban and vacation hubs. The company recently completed the acquisition of a 76% stake in a Juhu Mumbai property and expanded into Kerala by acquiring the Malabar House and Purity resorts under the Park Collection. The management plans to add 672 keys over the next 14...
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| 09 Feb 2026 | Commodities |
IDBI Capital
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Sector Update
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Commodity Price Update: Sector Update
IDBI Capital
Indian HRC: Indian HRC prices increased by 0.7% WoW to Rs 53,900/tonne, making a new 52-week-high post 2-3 price hikes taken by steel mills in the month of January, driven by steady state demand...
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| 06 Feb 2026 | Voltamp Transformers |
IDBI Capital
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8170.50 | 8266.00 | 8143.00 (0.34%) | Target met |
Hold
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Voltamp Transformers: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Voltamp Transformers (VAMP) reported better than expected performance in Q3FY26. Revenue, EBITDA and PAT grew by 30%,9% and 35% respectively. This was majorly led by high volume growth in MVA terms and higher other income. Demand trends for the company remain healthy with demand emanating from diversified industry verticals. Voltamp has been a preferred vendor amongst its clients due to its prudent execution track record and working capital management despite the cyclical nature of the business. However, with several credible competitors adding capacity in the transformers segment we expect...
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| 06 Feb 2026 | PVR INOX |
IDBI Capital
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1076.05 | 1150.00 | 1006.40 (6.92%) | 6.87 |
Buy
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PVR Inox (PVRINOX): Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
PVR INOX delivered a strong Q3FY26 performance, supported by a sharp recovery in theatrical demand and solid execution benefits from the merger. Industry trends remain favourable, with calendar 2025 being the highest-ever box office year, showing that cinema has structurally recovered. During the quarter, footfalls grew 9% YoY, occupancy improved to 28.5%, and both ticket prices and food spend rose 4%, reflecting healthy consumer demand. Revenue increased to INR 1,908cr, EBITDA rose to INR 344cr, and PAT stood at INR 115cr, driven by operating leverage and cost...
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| 06 Feb 2026 | Nilkamal |
IDBI Capital
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1505.70 | 1639.00 | 1464.80 (2.79%) | 8.85 |
Hold
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Nilkamal: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Nilkamal Ltd.'s (NILK) Q3FY26 result was in-line with our estimates on key parameters. During the Q3FY26, the B2B segment of the Company achieved a growth of 12% in value & 6% in volume terms. Material Handling Business grew by 6%. The Mattress and Foam Business grew by 68%, Bubbleguard business grew by 33%, Furniture business grew by 16%. The Retail & E-commerce segment achieved growth of 13% and clocked turnover of Rs110 crores. The E-commerce business grew by 15% while the retail through stores grew by 11%.. NILK is operating 31 stores while 69 stores are under franchisee arrangement....
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| 06 Feb 2026 | Aavas Financiers |
IDBI Capital
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1343.10 | 1583.00 | 1301.40 (3.20%) | 17.86 |
Buy
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AAVAS Financiers (AAVAS): Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Aavas Financiers delivered a steady Q3FY26 performance, reflecting normalization in operations and improving execution metrics. AUM grew 15% YoY while disbursements recovered meaningfully, posting ~10% QoQ growth, aided by stabilization under the revised disbursement recognition framework and a recovery in the sanction-to-disbursement ratio to >80%. Management guided ~25% disbursement growth in FY27, aided by branch expansion and better conversion. NII grew 17% YoY, driven by healthy loan growth and strong margins. NIM expanded to 8.01%, with spreads improving to 5.34%, and...
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| 06 Feb 2026 | CCL Products |
IDBI Capital
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1031.05 | 1077.00 | 990.55 (4.09%) | 4.46 |
Hold
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CCL Products (India): Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
CCL Products Q3FY26 performance was above our expectations. Sales grew 38% YoY to Rs10.5bn, driven by 20% YoY volume growth and 18% YoY increase in realization due to improved coffee blends and stable raw material prices. Gross margin contracted by 308bps YoY to 37.1%, primarily due to higher input costs. However, EBITDA margin expanded by 120bps YoY to 17.6%, driven by improved product mix as freeze-dried plant at Vietnam has started ramping up. PAT increased by 59% YoY to Rs1,003mn. CCL has revised EBITDA growth guidance to 25% (previously 15%-20%), with volume growth of 18% for FY26....
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| 06 Feb 2026 | Greenply Industries |
IDBI Capital
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239.76 | 344.00 | 227.98 (5.17%) | 43.48 |
Buy
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Greenply Industries: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Greenply's Q3FY26 profitability was below our expectations. Revenue grew 10% YoY to Rs6.7bn, driven by robust growth in MDF segment. EBITDA increased by 9% YoY to Rs589mn, with EBITDA margin remaining flat YoY at 8.7%, impacted by production glitches at MDF plant. PAT declined by 25% YoY to Rs182mn. Net debt increased by Rs170mn QoQ to Rs5.2bn, and is expected to further rise to Rs6-6.5Bn by Mar'27. Greenply plans to add a new MDF line by Q2FY28, which will increase capacity by 700 CBM/day with a capex outlay of Rs4.25bn and a peak revenue potential of Rs6bn. We roll over to FY28E estimates and value the...
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| 06 Feb 2026 | Century Plyboards |
IDBI Capital
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802.55 | 775.00 | 797.80 (0.60%) | -3.43 |
Hold
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Century Plyboards: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Century Plyboards' Q3FY26 performance was above expectations. Revenue grew 18% YoY to Rs13.5bn, driven by strong growth in MDF (+19% YoY), Plywood (+15% YoY), and Laminate (+10% YoY) and Particle boards (83% YoY). EBITDA margin expanded by 125bps YoY to 12.6%, supported by margin improvement across MDF and Plywood segment. Management announced a new plywood facility with a capacity of 0.9 1.2 lakh CBM and a massive MDF facility with a capacity of over 3 lakh CBM at Uttar Pradesh, with a total capex of Rs 1,100 crores. Century aspires to reach Rs12,000 crore turnover by FY31. We roll over to FY28E estimates and value...
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| 06 Feb 2026 | Harsha Engineers |
IDBI Capital
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397.70 | 471.00 | 384.55 (3.42%) | 18.43 |
Buy
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Harsha Engineers International: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Harsha Engineers (Harsha) delivered results in line with our estimates. Excluding the one-time new labour code impact of Rs ~60mn, the results met our expectations. Revenue, EBITDA and PAT grew by 21%, 34% and 26% respectively on YoY basis. Steady domestic demand and recovery in industrial demand in Europe led to steady growth. Growth is predominantly volume driven and not pricing driven. We believe that the company can clock in steady growth especially with better demand outlook from Europe and stable domestic demand. The management expects that revenue growth in India, improving...
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| 05 Feb 2026 | Cera Sanitaryware |
IDBI Capital
|
5287.40 | 5888.00 | 5053.60 (4.63%) | 11.36 |
Buy
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Cera Sanitaryware: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Cera Sanitaryware Ltd.'s (Cera) Q3FY26 performance was below our estimates on margins front. EBITDA was lower impacted by higher trade discounts driven by increased project participation, elevated brass input costs, higher publicity spends, and pre-operative expenses for new brands. The Management expects EBITDA margins to recover to 1314% in Q4 FY26 as one-off costs normalize, with a medium-term target of 1517% margins achievable by H2 FY27, assuming stable input costs. Recently announced price hikes of ~11% in faucetware and ~4% in sanitaryware are expected to fully offset current input cost inflation,...
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| 05 Feb 2026 | Cummins |
IDBI Capital
|
4418.30 | 4401.00 | 4391.40 (0.61%) | Target met |
Hold
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Cummins India: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Cummins India (KKC) delivered performance in Q3FY26 which was broadly in line with our expectations. While Revenue declined by ~1% YoY, EBITDA and Adjusted PAT grew by 6% and 5% respectively. Demand continues to be healthy emanating from verticals such as Quick Commerce, Mission Critical Infrastructure, Real Estate and Data Centres for the PowerGen segment. KKC also clocked in healthy gross margin of ~38% for the quarter. This is a result of the management's assiduous efforts in reducing direct material costs, optimizing product mix and a one-time benefit from the supplier's end....
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| 04 Feb 2026 | Chalet Hotels |
IDBI Capital
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882.35 | 1007.00 | 870.85 (1.32%) | 14.13 |
Hold
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Chalet Hotels: Q3FY26 Result Review
IDBI Capital
Chalet Hotels Ltd.'s (Chalet) Q3FY26 result was ahead of our estimates on key parameters. The management guided that the Indian hospitality demand remains structurally strong, driven by rising disposable incomes, experiential travel preferences, weddings, MICE activity, and improving infrastructure. ADR growth continues at healthy double-digit levels across most markets. Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune, and MMR delivered strong performance, with MMR achieving high single-digit RevPAR growth despite operational headwinds at Powai and Vashi, outperforming the broader Mumbai market. New resort brand Athiva...
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