Page Industries Ltd. share price forecast

Tracking healthy operational performance, PAT grew 45% YoY to | 160.5 crore. Liquidity positon remains robust with cash worth | 536 crore What should investors do? Page's share price has grown by ~3x over the past...

This results in a rating revision to BUY (HOLD earlier). We raise TP to Rs. 44,250 (Rs.32,800 earlier) as we roll forward to Sept '23 earnings.

Background: Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc (USA) to manufacture and distribute Jockey brand in India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE till 2040. They broadly operate in premium men's innerwear; women's innerwear and leisure wear segments. Jockey enjoys high brand recall and they spend ~5% of their annual sales for brand building and promotional activity, which enables them to dominate most of the segments in which they operate. They are also exclusive licensee of Speedo swimwear brand in India. Page has network in ~250 cities and ~760 exclusive brand outlets in India. They...

Background: Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc (USA) to manufacture and distribute Jockey brand in India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE till 2040. They broadly operate in premium men's innerwear; women's innerwear and leisure wear segments. Jockey enjoys high brand recall and they spend ~5% of their annual sales for brand building and promotional activity, which enables them to dominate most of the segments in which they operate. They are also exclusive licensee of Speedo swimwear brand in India. Page has network in ~250 cities and ~760 exclusive brand outlets in India. They...

Gross margin improved by 963bps YoY to 57.7% on account of better product mix while EBITDA margin came in at 6.8% owing to unabsorbed fixed overheads. Weak operating margin and fall in other income restrict earnings to grew to Rs11cr (Vs. Rs40cr loss in Q1FY21). The company indicated that the demand has been strong in June & July and more than 50% of multi brand outlet (MBO) is operational which provides impetus to the revenue recovery....

Owing unabsorbed fixed overheads, EBITDA margins came in at 6.8% (Q4FY21: 19.3%, Q1FY21: -12.2%). Reported PAT of | 10.9 crore (Q4FY21: | 115.6 crore, Q1FY21: (-) | 39.6 crore) What should investors do? Page's share price has grown by ~2.2x over the past...

We continue to maintain HOLD rating and raise TP to Rs. 32,800 (Rs.29,364 earlier) while continuing to value the stock at 55x its FY23E EPS as current valuations offer limited upside.

Background: Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc (USA) to manufacture and distribute Jockey brand in India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE till 2040. They broadly operate in premium men's innerwear; women's innerwear and leisure wear segments. Jockey enjoys high brand recall and they spend ~5% of their annual sales for brand building and promotional activity, which enables them to dominate most of the segments in which they operate. They are also exclusive licensee of Speedo swimwear brand in India. Page has network in ~250 cities and ~760 exclusive brand outlets in India. They...

Given the inherent strength of the brand, Page displayed a resilient performance in FY21, notwithstanding challenges faced in H1FY21. Despite revenues declining ~66% in Q1FY21, the company exited the year with mere 3% revenue de-growth. While volumes de-grew ~12% YoY in FY21, change in product mix towards athleisure wear led blended realisations to increase ~9% YoY. On full year product wise growth trends, the management indicated that athleisure, kids and e-commerce have reported volume growth while men's and women's innerwear saw a decline. Going...

While revenue and volume growth in 4QFY21 were ahead of our estimates, lower than expected EBITDA margin resulted in EBITDA and PBT that were in line with our estimates. PAG has taken a 4-5% price increase in 4QFY21 to account for higher yarn prices. The ongoing lockdown in most parts of India has led to store closures. Key factories of PAG in Bengaluru have been shut for nearly a month. While the management is confident of a rebound in demand after a gradual return to normalcy once the lockdowns are lifted, the ongoing lockdowns have...

Background: Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc (USA) to manufacture and distribute Jockey brand in India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE till 2040. They broadly operate in premium men's innerwear; women's innerwear and leisure wear segments. Jockey enjoys high brand recall and they spend ~5% of their annual sales for brand building and promotional activity, which enables them to dominate most of the segments in which they operate. They are also exclusive licensee of Speedo swimwear brand in India. Page has network in ~250 cities and ~760 exclusive brand outlets in India. They...

EBITDA margin improved by 691bps YoY to 24.4% on account of better product mix and reduction in A&P; spends. Strong margin, debt free status and doubling of capacity by 2025 will help to tap vigorous opportunity in the sector. Increase in footfalls driven by removal of restrictions and...

We continue to maintain HOLD rating and rasie TP to Rs. 29,364 (Rs.20,998 earlier) while continuing to value the stock at 50x its FY23E EPS as current valuations offer limited upside.

For 9MFY21, revenue declined 19% YoY vs. decline of 66% in Q1FY21. The recovery was mainly driven by high double digit growth for athleisure wear & womenswear. The management highlighted athleisure segment in value terms is nearly close to its largest segment i.e. menswear. The company remains confident of sustainability of demand from athleisure wear based on the stickiness of new trials. Page has accelerated its distribution touchpoints by ~7000 outlets (4000 added in Q3) and expects to exit FY21E with addition of ~10000 outlets. It has a launched bouquet of products...

On MoM basis, sales improved gradually. The company achieved sales normalization in August and witnessed strong growth in September. Despite GM contraction, better operating efficiency and lower A&P; spends helped EBITDA margins to expand by 310bps. Secondary demand was ahead of primary throughout the quarter, signifying steady increase in sales growth. Going ahead, we believe that the company's focus to increase...

Page Industries'(PAGE) Q2FY21 revenue at Rs 740 crs was broadly in-line with our estimates at Rs 755 Crs, and was down 5% YoY led by 13% volume de-growth despite ~9% value growth.

EBITDA margin improved by 311bps YoY to 22.3% on account of better product mix and fall in other expenses (24% YoY). Outstanding cash balance improved to Rs409cr due to inventory reduction and efficient working capital management. Strong margin, debt free status and doubling of capacity by 2025 will help to tap vigorous opportunity in the sector. The company opened 60new EBOs in Q2FY21 and expect...

The supply chain for the company is close to normal levels after issues faced by vendors during the initial period of the quarter. Revenue trajectory has been on an upward trend on a MoM basis, with August sales reaching preCovid levels while from September it witnessed double digit growth. The momentum is expected to sustain running into the festive season. Currently, 94% of MBOs, 100% EBOs and 92% of LFS are operational. E-commerce channels have seen significant growth with both, own website and third party platforms revenue share increasing. The company added 60 new exclusive Jockey outlets taking the total store count to ~800+....

Background: Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc (USA) to manufacture and distribute Jockey brand in India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE till 2040. They broadly operate in premium men's innerwear; women's innerwear and leisure wear segments. Jockey enjoys high brand recall and they spend ~5% of their annual sales for brand building and promotional activity, which enables them to dominate most of the segments in which they operate. They are also exclusive licensee of Speedo swimwear brand in India. Page has network in ~250 cities and ~760 exclusive brand outlets in India. They...

Page Industries (PAGE) Q1FY21 revenue at Rs285 Crs was a sharp miss on our estimates (Est. Rs 405 Crs), and was down 66%/47% YoY/QoQ impacted by steep fall in volumes (down 69%). Volume decline was primarily due to 2/3rd of quarter being washed out due to lockdowns leading