Lupin Ltd. share price target

The company’s near-term earnings outlook is expected to go through a transition phase rather than maintain strong growth momentum.

Higher US revenues spur growth YoY: Revenues grew 33% YoY to INR 74bn, vs our estimate INR 69.4bn. Beat was on account of higher US revenues which stood at USD contribution from gTolvaptan, continued flu season and other launches. India formulation grew by 11.5% YoY. EMs increased sharply by 49%, while other developed markets increased by 7% YoY. API business showed recovery up 8% YoY....

Sales/EBITDA/APAT surpassed our 4QFY26 estimates by 8.1%/18.5%/12.7% respectively; EBITDA Margin by 254 bps

Beat in Q3FY26 vs our expectation was mainly driven by stellar performance in the US region, posting revenue of USD 350mn (up 46.8% YoY). Apart from a few seasonal products, sales in US were largely led by Tolvaptan, Mirabegron and Spiriva.

We recommend a BUY rating with a target price of Rs 2,460/share.

Sales/EBITDA /APAT reported 8.2%/13.1%/25% above our estimates. EBITDA Margin reported 130 bps above our estimates

Lupin (LPC) posted a better-than-expected financial performance in 3QFY26, with 6%/16%/22% beat on revenues/EBITDA/PAT. Robust traction in US and other developed markets helped LPC sustain profitable growth momentum in 3Q.

U.S. business grew ~41% YoY in Q2FY26, led by specialty & complex launches. Europe up ~27% YoY; Other Developed Markets up ~19%.

In Q2FY26, Lupin reported a consolidated revenue of Rs. 7,048cr, up 24.2% YoY, Lupin's India segment revenue rose 3.4% YoY to Rs. 2,078cr, led by an 8.8% growth in Rx business, strong chronic therapy momentum and robust volume growth,...

Lupin remains well-positioned to sustain its strong growth trajectory, supported by a healthy specialty pipeline in the U.S., improved product mix, and operating leverage gains.

Niche launches in the US drive numbers; future pipeline key for sustainability Earning momentum strong till FY26; apparent slowdown in FY27 but pipeline buildup to continue- Strong growth was attributable US launches under exclusivity (gMyrbetriq, gTolvaptan and gSpiriva) and launches across regions. India was impacted due to lower tender sales in Institutional business. The company has maintained the strong EBITDA margins trajectory mainly driven by strong GPM performance. The...

Lupin delivered a beat of 9.5%/26.3%/21.8% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT vs our estimates in Q2FY26, driven by exclusive products like Tolvaptan and Mirabegron.

Lupin (LPC) delivered better-than-expected performance for the quarter, with a 9%/30%/28% beat on revenue/EBITDA/PAT.

Received USFDA approval for 3rd complex injectable Risperdal Consta; we anticipate full-year sales of USD 17 mn in FY27

A shift to complex drugs in recent times in the US led to revenue and PAT CAGRs of 21.93% and 64.18% over FY22 to FY25.

Lupin’s Q1FY26 result was largely in-line with our estimates. Launch of Tolvaptan in US (180 days exclusivity) helped Lupin offset the impact of price erosion in its US portfolio and a muted performance in India.

Lupin's (LPC) Q1FY26 EBITDA stood at Rs16.4bn (up 28% YoY) was in line with our estimates on the back of higher US sales supported by niche launches (gTolvaptan). LPC saw remarkable turnaround in profitability with ~2x jump in EBITDA over FY23-24 aided by better product mix, continued niche launches in the US, clearance from USFDA for facilities, domestic formulations regaining momentum and cost optimization measures. We expect margins to sustain given a strong pipeline in the US. Our FY26E and FY27E broadly remain...

We recommend a BUY rating with a target price of Rs 2,500/share.

Lupin delivered yet another quarter of earnings outperformance vs street as well as our estimates, with the beat in 1QFY26 being driven by a higher gross margin.

Earnings above our estimates on all fronts. US sales in cc terms were at 282mn vs our estimate of USD264 mn