Downgrades

Weak demand because of the prolonged monsoon, less government infra funding and keen competition hurt Birla Corp’s Q2. Its FY25 volume guidance was lowered to 3-4% as demand at its core regions would be curbed by Mahakumbh (Central) and elections (Maharashtra) where EBITDA/tonne has been guided to rise Rs150-170 in H2 FY25.

INDIGO reported a 26% YoY decline in EBITDA to INR16.2b in 2QFY25 and a net loss of INR9.9b (vs. our est. net loss of INR6.8b).

IDFC First Bank (IDFCFB) reported 2QFY25 PAT of INR2b (73% YoY decline, significant miss to MOFSLe) due to a spike in provisions.

Poonawalla Fincorp (PFL)’s 2QFY25 loss stood at ~INR4.7b (MOFSLe: INR3b+). The company reported a loss in 2QFY25 mainly due to a one-time provision in STPL book of ~INR6.7b and a one-time opex of ~INR710m from investments in technology.

CreditAccess Grameen (CREDAG)’s 2QFY25 PAT declined ~46% YoY to ~INR1.86b (~29% miss). 1HFY25 PAT declined ~16% YoY to ~INR5.8b, and we expect 2HFY25 PAT to decline ~38% YoY.

NTPC reported standalone 2QFY25 EBITDA of INR96.7b (-8% YoY), 19% below our estimate of INR119b. Sharp rise in other opex (INR55b vs. INR34bin 2QFY24) led to the miss at the EBITDA level.

Q2 results were broadly in line with our forecasts. Factoring in stronger growth momentum, we raise FY24-27E volume CAGR to 8.4% from 7.5%

Demand remains soft; expect pick-up in second half