405.00 2.85 (0.71%)
462.5K NSE+BSE Volume
NSEJun 16, 2021 03:31 PM
The 9 reports from 3 analysts offering long term price targets for VIP Industries Ltd. have an average target of 403.67. The consensus estimate represents a downside of -0.33% from the last price of 405.00.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2021-05-26||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||362.75||376.00||362.75 (11.65%)||Target met||Hold|
While our FY22 estimates have undergone a massive cut as 2 nd wave has derailed the recovery process; our FY23 figures are broadly intact as we expect improvement in demand environment over the next 12 months. We believe there are clear near term margin headwinds amid aggressive discounting and RM cost inflation. Unless demand environment improves margins will continue to remain under pressure due to inferior sales mix (higher share of mass/value products which have lower margin). However, we believe VIP has done well on the cost management front (fixed cost savings...
|2021-05-26||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Axis Direct||363.50||415.00||363.50 (11.42%)||2.47||Buy|
We introduce FY24 estimates and believe, VIP will be able to bounce back to its leadership position in the industry thus driving us to upgrade the stock to BUY (HOLD earlier) with a revised TP of Rs. 415/share (earlier Rs. 330) based on FY24E EPS.
|2021-05-26||VIP Industries Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||363.50||420.00||363.50 (11.42%)||3.70||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
The company has implemented close to ~ | 170 crore fixed cost savings in FY21 (overall opex down 51% YoY in FY21). VIP believes ~50% (| 80-85 crore) would be sustainable in FY22E. Given the near term headwinds and Q1 being critical for VIP, we reduce our revenue estimates for FY22E. We broadly maintain our estimates for FY23E as we expect improved traction in the domestic travel industry from H2FY22 onwards. While revenue recovery may take longer, structural changes in fixed overheads will lead to faster recovery in profitability terms. The company is well placed on the liquidity...
|2021-03-30||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||354.15||376.00||354.15 (14.36%)||Target met||Accumulate|
VIP took price hike of ~6% from March 01 to counter inflationary pressures. Recently, we conducted some channel checks (interacted with few distributors and an MD of one unlisted company) in the luggage space to get a pulse of current demand trends. Our checks reveal 1) demand in 4QFY21 benefitted from gradual reopening of schools in Jan/Feb (augured well for backpack sales) coupled with shift in market share from unorganized to...
|2021-02-05||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||353.60||376.00||353.60 (14.54%)||Target met||Accumulate|
We cut our EPS estimates by 7.5%/2.1% for FY22E/FY23E respectively amid aggressive discounting (higher channel inventory due to low demand) and RM cost inflation (input costs are up ~60-70% on QoQ basis). Our earnings cut is steeper for FY22E, as discounting and inflationary pressures are unlikely to sustain beyond 12 months. In addition, we have r e-aligned our borrowing forecast (VIP aims to be debt free by July/Aug) and have baked in the benefits of cost reduction program (targeted savings of ~Rs1.8bn in FY21E; 50% is sustainable in nature) resulting in 220bps EBITDA margin...
|2020-11-24||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||341.90||384.00||341.90 (18.46%)||Target met||Accumulate|
In a group call we hosted recently, management of VIP Industries highlighted 1) timeline of ~12-18 months for sales to revert to pre-COVID levels 2) plans to reduce cost by ~1.8bn in FY21E (~50% of the reduction is expected to be sustainable in nature) and 3) pressure on GM in FY21 (replica of 1HFY21) given higher discounts and reduction in share of Bangladesh operations. Amid indications of slightly back-ended recovery we cut our sales estimates by 5%/9%/6% for FY21/FY22/FY23 respectively. While we expect EBITDA loss to widen in FY21E to Rs844mn (Rs719mn earlier) and cut our FY22E EBITDA...
|2020-11-10||VIP Industries Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||290.30||370.00||290.30 (39.51%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
i) The management indicated that pandemic has the hit travel industry the hardest and may have pushed the luggage industry two to three years back (luggage being proxy play), ii) to minimise cash burn, VIP has significantly rationalised fixed overheads from | 40 crore/month to | 24 core/ month, iii) it will be cutting on advertising and marketing spends and has already shut down 100 (out of 250) non-profitable EBOs, iv) liquidation of existing inventory putting pressure on gross margins, v) Bangladesh manufacturing currently utilised for manufacturing masks (run rate: | 3 crore/month) to...
|2020-11-10||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Axis Direct||306.50||190.00||306.50 (32.14%)||53.09||Sell|
We revise our Revenue/PAT estimates for FY21E/22E. Maintain SELL with revised TP of Rs. 190 (earlier Rs. 165). Key upside risks to our estimate faster than expected recovery in demand, vaccine for COVID, a strong marriage season in Q3
|2020-08-10||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Axis Direct||259.75||165.00||259.75 (55.92%)||59.26||Sell|
Uncertain demand outlook: Q1FY21 was a washout quarter (April-May no sales) with no further improvement expected in Q2FY21 although demand in July was better than June, however, it is nowhere near pre-COVID levels as travel industry continues to be the most affected one.
|2020-05-27||VIP Industries Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||205.35||220.00||205.35 (97.22%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a grievous impact on the global travel industry and retail environment. Revenues for Q4FY20 fell 28% YoY to | 311.3 crore. While sales in January-February fell 7% YoY to | 279.0 crore, March was a complete washout with revenues down 76% YoY to | 32.0 crore. The company's procurement from own facility in Bangladesh increased substantially from 10-15% to 55% in Q4FY20. This translated into gross margin expansion of ~1000 bps to 57.6%. Owing to negative operating leverage, EBITDA margins (adjusting for Ind-AS 116) contracted...
|2020-05-27||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||217.65||229.00||217.65 (86.08%)||Target met||Hold|
Topline slumps as revenue for March month falls 76%: Topline declined 28.4% YoY to Rs3,113mn (PLe of Rs3,993mn) as there was a revenue loss of Rs1.2bn due to COVID-19. Revenues in Jan & Feb of 2020 stood at Rs2.8bn. However,...
|2020-02-18||VIP Industries Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||446.00||505.00||446.00 (-9.19%)||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
Since revenue contribution for VIP is skewed towards the first quarter of the financial year (~30% of revenue), disruption on the supply side may pose a risk to growth for FY21. We remain cautious on the near term outlook, amid headwinds faced by the luggage industry. Owing to its healthy balance sheet (D/E: 0.1x, NWC days: 85) and strong brand patronage among consumers, VIP's business model has the inherent ability to tide over tough market conditions. Furthermore, owing to its strong manufacturing capacity (Bangladesh: soft luggage, India: hard luggage), it is well placed compared...
|2020-02-14||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Axis Direct||467.65||554.00||467.65 (-13.40%)||Buy|
VIP Industries (VIPIND) Q3FY20 performance was subdued and missed our estimates on all counts. Despite flat revenue growth of 0.5% in Q3FY20 (high base, lower e-commerce contribution, forgone institutional business to maintain margins
|2020-02-13||VIP Industries Ltd. +||IDBI Capital||468.20||563.00||468.20 (-13.50%)||Buy|
VIP reported better than expected profitability in Q3FY20 although top-line was lower than our forecast. VIP's net sales remained flat YoY at Rs4,324 mn (4.3% below our forecast) as it lost market share. Nevertheless, EBITDA margin was 136ps ahead of our estimate at 15.7%. Gross margin expanded 560bps YoY to 53.3% due to improved terms in sourcing raw materials. Looking ahead, the company foresees challenges in procuring soft luggage from China due to the outbreak of coronavirus. Nevertheless, VIP believes it remains better-placed...
|2020-02-12||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||467.65||472.00||467.65 (-13.40%)||Target met||Hold|
We cut our EPS estimates by 5%/7% for FY21E/FY22E and downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD as 1) VIP has ceded market share due to rising competitive intensity 2) growth concerns can aggravate further if there is an extended factory shut down in China due to Coronavirus mayhem as only 60% of the requirements for 1QFY21 (strongest quarter) are currently hedged by placing advance orders and 3) extended slowdown in discretionary spending amid weak environment has structurally de-railed the growth momentum. Despite near term growth headwinds, margin performance has...
|2019-11-28||VIP Industries Ltd. +||IDBI Capital||436.95||574.00||436.95 (-7.31%)||Buy|
We initiate coverage on VIP Industries (VIP) with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs574 based on PER of 32x FY22E. VIP is a proxy play on rising spends towards travel and tourism in India. It is a leader in an industry dominated by unbranded players. Further, it has established brands, strong distribution network, skilled management and strong product portfolio. We expect its sales/EBITDA/net profits are to grow at CAGR of 11%/25%/20% over FY19-22E, respectively. We believe that the premium valuation (PER of 24.4x FY22) is justified given significant growth prospects (60% market unorganized), strong...
|2019-11-07||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||455.85||530.00||455.85 (-11.15%)||Buy|
We cut our EPS estimates by 8.8%/8.7% for FY20E/FY21E given aggravating concerns on growth amid slowdown in discretionary spends. All channels except for e-com have struggled but a diversified mix has helped VIP tackle slowdown concerns better. Despite subdued top-line growth, gross margin expanded 250bps YoY to 53.3% amid improved negotiation with Chinese vendors who are saddled with excess capacity after increase in import duty by the US. The gross margin advantage got nullified at the operating level due to 19% YoY increase in employee expenses due to addition of manpower and...
|2019-10-18||VIP Industries Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||465.20||540.00||465.20 (-12.94%)||Buy|
|2019-07-30||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||385.50||488.00||385.50 (5.06%)||Target met||Buy|
from brand VIP (repositioning done in April) has helped the company tackle slowdown concerns better. Nonetheless, given the current situation, we cut our sales estimates by 8%/13% for FY20E/21E. Despite subdued top-line growth, gross margin expanded 10bps YoY to 50.4% and Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 60bps YoY to 19.2% due to 1) lag effect of price hike taken in March 2) only partial liquidation of high cost inventory sitting on books 3) launch of new products with better margin profile 4) superior product mix (sales of high margin brand VIP has increased) and 5) better...
|2019-03-25||VIP Industries Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||453.50||579.00||453.50 (-10.69%)||Buy|
VIP is a formidable play on luggage market in India .......................................... 5 Investment Argument............................................................................................. 7 Organized luggage industry on cusp of higher growth ....................................... 7 VIP all set to ride the growth phase in luggage industry................................... 10 Creating twin levers of growth .......................................................................... 15 Channel checks indicate brand pull for Skybags is high; Carlton is a sturdy product ............................................................................................................. 16 Competitive landscape of the luggage industry ................................................ 17...