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Uncertain demand outlook: Q1FY21 was a washout quarter (April-May no sales) with no further improvement expected in Q2FY21 although demand in July was better than June, however, it is nowhere near pre-COVID levels as travel industry continues to be the most affected one.
Outlook & Valuation: We downgrade our revenue estimates by 1% for FY21E to Rs. 168 Bn on account of downgrade in India and other key markets while we upgrade by 0.4% to Rs. 187 Bn on account of upgrade in key markets.
Weakness was seen across KPIs. ARPU decline of ~6% QoQ, vis--vis peers who reported ARPU growth, was owing to extension of validity of low cost customers during lockdown, SIM consolidation by its customers and postpaid sub base decline. The subscriber base fell by 11.3 million to 279.8 mn. The 4G sub base saw a modest decline of ~1 mn QoQ to 104.6 mn, clearly reflecting pressure on its high paying customers. Even the post-paid sub base at 21.5 mn was down by 1.5 mn QoQ, owing to fall in POS connections where SIM was requested to be put in safe custody by customers. Cost rationalisation plan of | 4000 crore in next 18 months...
Albuterol launch unable to make major gain in US 1QFY21 revenue and PAT were higher than our estimate due to revenue spillover of India formulations, African private markets and decline in SG&A; by 25% YoY. CIPLA guided for more than 20% EBITDA margin FY21E onwards primarily led by lower SG&A; and R&D; spend. We incorporated management's...