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17 August 2020 United Breweries (UBBL)s results were worse than our expectations. Its in various urban centers thus far in 2QFY21, (c) no repeal of excise duty increase in the majority of the states (which saw a steep excise increase in May), and (d) the continued likelihood of closure of on-trade sales for a few more months. As highlighted in our Alcobev downgrade in May20, we expect FY20 FY22 to be lost years for alcobev players, which are severely affected by a weak demand environment in FY21. Moreover, recovery in FY22 is also threatening both net sales growth and profitability for the next few quarters and (b) the risk of weak state finances leading to delay in payments, thereby increasing receivables. EBITDA loss stood at INR957m (v/s est. INR750m loss and EBITDA profit of INR3.3b in 1QFY20). PBT loss stood at INR1.5b (in-line) v/s PBT profit of INR2.6b in 1QFY20.
APL Apollo Tubes (APL) reported better than expected profitability for Q1FY21 as its EBITDA/net profit were 27%/25% higher than our estimates. APL's net sales decreased by 45.9% YoY to Rs11 bn due to fall in sales volumes by 39% YoY to 238 kt. Despite weak sales, the company held on to its margins (EBIDTA /tonne fell only 4.3% YoY to Rs3,191). Its EBITDA, however, fell 43.1% YoY to Rs711 mn. Interest expense fell 25.1%...
Trent reported below than expected result after several quarters of positive surprise. Revenue decline is higher than expected due to regulatory restrictions on store openings. As per our channel check stores which were located inside malls (c. 70% of Trent store portfolio) were allowed to be operational from Aug'20. Negative operating leverage (40-44% of gross profit is consumed by employee and rental cost) severely impacted EBITDA and PAT. Positively, 90% of stores (both standalone and inside-malls) are now operational. As per management, overall business witnessed decent recovery during current month of end of season sale. We expect business recovery in 2HFY21E to...
Pace of work on expansion projects picked up as company maintained its timeline of commissioning barring Odisha unit The Ramco Cements (TRCL) posted Q1FY21 EBITDA in line with ours and above consensus estimates by 7%. While, PAT came below our estimates by 7% due to higher interest cost. We continue to remain negative on Southern region due to overcapacity as...
Eicher Motors (EIM) Q1FY21 EBITDA/PAT number below our estimate. Revenue de-grew by 66% YoY to Rs.8.18bn led by 68% YoY fall in volume. EBITDA de-grew 99% YoY to Rs.38mn (vs est. Rs 646mn) with margin at 0.5% due to negative operating leverage. Enquiries and booking are almost back to pre-covid level for RE, however production was severely impacted due to frequent lockdowns in Chennai, affecting availability of products. Strong demand was witnessed in Tier 2/3 cities and rural areas, while demand in larger...
Gas transmission segment volumes were down 14.4% YoY at 90.2 mmscmd (our estimate: 97.5 mmscmd) as offtake was lower due to impact of lockdown. Going ahead, we estimate transmission volumes at 109 mmscmd, 127.5 mmscmd for FY21E, FY22E, respectively, due to additional domestic gas from newer fields. The gas transmission EBIT at | 716.7 crore, was down 16.6% YoY but above our estimates due to lower costs. Gas trading volumes declined 15.9% YoY to 81.2 mmscmd. Gas trading reported loss of | 545.5 crore (estimated profit: | 214.9 crore) as the company had to...
Subros Limited (Subros) Q1FY21 revenue was below our estimates while EBITDA/PAT came above our expectation. Revenue was impacted due to lower OEM production whereas subros operating expenses were significantly down on account of cost initiatives taken by management. We expect ~20% industry de-growth for 4W industry in FY21 and expect strong recovery in FY22. We have not seen any meaningful revenue contribution from railways/home Ac/truck and bus segment in last 3 years and do not expect any significant change in revenue mix in near term to offset the slowdown in PV industry. However we cut our revenue estimates for FY21 by 8% factoring lower...
Commercial/ Residential real estate activities expected to remain sluggish & will take longer time to recover, while data centers&healthcarewouldlikelytosupportpowergenbiz.Rail &Mining(55%ofindustrialsales)toleadindustrialbizrecovery innext23quarters.Significantdemanduncertaintiespersistin...