Sell

Domestic Formulations A Mixed Bag: The domestic formulations industry grew by 9.7% during the quarter and 9.8% for the year. The last 15-20 days of the March quarter were an issue due to COVID-19 and lockdown. Digital marketing, video calling had replaced the traditional mode of personalvisits and marketing.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMart) owns & operates India's most profitable supermarket, DMart. It provides products like Food, Non-Food (FMCG), General Merchandise & Apparel through 216 stores (total 8mn sq. ft). We downgrade DMart to Reduce rating with new Target of Rs2,100...

We have revised our estimates to factor in lower C-I and higher other income. We beleive inadequate CAR and high moratorium will weigh on the stock. We recommend a Sell with a TP of Rs 40 (0.22x FY22E ABV).

Avenue Supermarts (DMART) 1QFY21 result was operationally in-line while PAT was better than expected due to higher other income. Store shutdowns, restrictions on selling high-margin non-essential products and strict social distancing norms inside the stores contributed towards dismal performance in Q1FY21. Online sale remain strong as customers preferred safety and convenience. Adding 2 stores of size 1 lakh sqft each is departure from DMART's usual strategy of opening 40-50k sqft size stores. Large-size stores should ideally be more profitable if the company maintains its usual inventoryturnout of 14x.Given the strength of DMART's balance sheet with Rs 29bn unutilized money from QIP, it would be opportune time to bargain real-estate and further...

Store expansion plan suffers (just 2 added in 1QFY21), will impact FY22/23 D'Mart 1Q21 shows full impact of COVID19 with lower footfalls, higher cost of operations and restrictions on sale of non-essentials. However, being positive at EBIDTA and PAT level shows the resilience of business model with little rentals and interest cost. Although recovery of 80%+ of pre-Covid sale...

As a result, revenue witnessed a 34% drop and estimated same-store sales growth (SSSG) fell -55%; the closure of the margin-accretive non-food section dragged down gross margins by ~220 bps, translating to 81% YoY decline in EBITDA. DMarts consolidated revenues fell 33% YoY to INR39b (6% below est.) on sales of mostly essential products witnessed at DMart stores and many stores remaining shut in the initial phase of the nationwide lockdown. Gross profit fell 42% YoY (in-line) and gross margins (GM) contracted 220bps YoY to 14.2% (90bp below estimate). This is attributable to the high- margin General Merchandise and Apparel sections of retail stores being closed during the lockdown and stores in some areas (with high local restrictions) continuing to operate sales only for essentials items. Subsequently, loss of INR3b in gross profit directly impacted EBITDA, which fell 81% YoY to INR1.1b (28% below est.); EBITDA margins contracted 740bps to 2.

technology access may not be as big a barrier to competitors (KOEL, Mahindra, and Perkins), end markets may not be strong enough to absorb such steep price hikes (similar learning from the earlier transition from CPCB-I to CPCB-II), the implementation date is set as July 2021, which may be pushed by six to nine months, especially given the COVID- 19-led disruption. However, the key end markets Manufacturing, Real Estate, Retail, and Hospitality are likely to remain under pressure, with a sluggish growth outlook over the next two years. Even the transition to CPCB-II met with a similar fate, with an anticipation of pre-buying, followed by price hikes, and hope of earnings growth. Given the weak outlook for the end markets and limited pricing power in the Gensets industry, we refrain from being bullish on CPCB-IV opportunities. Currently, macro headwinds remain too strong for the industry to witness double-digit growth on a sustainable basis in the domestic market.

Outlook and Valuation: While we believe that these are a positive development for INFOE, we continue tobelieve that the core/standalone business of the company is expected to suffer in thenear term as the growth prospects of the company are closely linked to GDP growth ofthe company.

We expect demand recovery from 2Q-3Q, supported by (1) strong digital playbook, (2) recovery in deal contracting with increase in consolidation deals (advantage Indian Tier-1s) as enterprises consolidate their tech portfolio, and (3) tech budget normalisation in 2Q for impacted verticals. Following -1.5/-6.0% QoQ in 4Q20/1Q21E, we have factored -0.6/+1.5/+2.8% QoQ in revenue over 2Q-4Q21E. The IT sector margin is expected to decline 95bps QoQ. Profitability is expected to be impacted by lower utilisation, pricing, cross-currency (GBP), lower forex gains and should be offset by (1) INR depreciation, (2) lower travel and discretionary spend, (3) deferral of wage increase and variable payouts cuts/deferrals, and (4) lower sub-contracting. We expect the margin trajectory to bottom out in 2Q. Subsequent margin recovery is premised on (1) demand recovery leading to utilisation recovery (onsite utilisation to precede offshore), and (2) continuity in optimal SG&A, including travel and sub-contracting rationalisation. IT sector (coverage universe) is expected to post -6.1/-3.7% QoQ/YoY in 1QFY21E revenue with cross-currency impact of -15 to -70bps QoQ. We expect Tier-1 IT revenue to decline between 5% and 9% QoQ while Tier-2 IT is expected to display a wider divergence (-2 to -14% QoQ). COVID-related economic impact on sectors like travel and transportation, O&G;, retail & CPG (discretionary) will be accentuated in 1Q (dual impact of price/volume cuts and deal deferrals/cancellations), while BFSI, healthcare, retail & CPG (non-disc.) and hi-tech verticals will be more resilient (deal-deferral impact, but resilient on pricing/volume).

Outlook and Valuation: We downgrade our revenue estimates for FY21E by 5.9% to Rs. 60.3 bn dueto downgrade in Customs Synthesis and Generics business due to no revenueguidance provided by the management.