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5 September 2020 Coal Indias (COAL) 1QFY21 results highlight the impact of lower volumes/ e-auction realizations amid subdued thermal power demand. Adj. EBITDA (ex-OBR) was down 63% YoY. Muted power demand has impacted off-take and e-auction realizations. However, we expect Coal India to tide over the situation given its large cash INR190/share based on 3.5x Sep21 EV/EBITDA. 1QFY21 Adj. EBITDA (ex-OBR) was down 63% YoY to INR28b (in-line) on account of lower off-take/e-auction realizations. While FSA realization at INR1,359/t was below our est. INR1,400/t, it was offset by higher mix of e- auction volumes at 15.9mt (v/s est. Revenue declined 26% YoY to ~INR185b (v/s est.
ONGC's Q1FY21 result was a beat to our forecast on EBITDA and Net profit front. Revenue was down 51% YoY to Rs130bn on the back of lower crude oil & gas volume and realization both. Oil sales volume declined by 2.6% YoY to 5.2mmt whereas gas sales volume declined by 15% YoY to 4.2bcm. Net oil realization also declined 57% YoY to US$28.7/bbl while net gas realization dipped 35% YoY to US$2.7/mmbtu. Consequently, EBITDA fell by 63% YoY to Rs47.8bn whereas PAT declined 92% YoY to Rs5bn, negatively impacted by lower other income. The company expects gas price revision to see some changes and expects it to remain at higher levels in next revision....
2 September 2020 Net oil realization stood at USD28.7/bbl (v/s est. Net sales were in line at INR130b (-51% YoY). EBITDA stood at INR59b (v/s est. +26%, -61% YoY), on lower other expenditure. This was primarily due to lower travelling/employee cost, lower statutory levies and cess, and lower feedstock gas prices at Dahej petchem plant. ONGC believes that DD&A; may remain at the same levels but other costs may decline significantly, led by various cost cutting measures. Tax was higher at 45.1% (v/s est. 33.3%), due to further provisioning of Service Tax/GST on Royalty as contingent liability. The matter is listed for hearing in the second week of Sep20 before the Honorable High Court of Rajasthan.
Crude oil prices stayed volatile in Q1FY21. Brent crude oil prices fell up to ~US$17/bbl while WTI oil prices traded in the negative for the first time in April. With demand increasing following a resumption of economic activities & Opec output cuts, Brent oil prices recovered in May, June. Average Brent crude oil prices remained lower at US$31.4/bbl, a decline of US$19.2/bbl QoQ. In Q2FY21E, oil prices are in range of US$45/bbl. Going ahead, we model net realisation of US$39.4/bbl for FY21E, US$48.5/bbl for FY22E at Brent oil prices of US$41/bbl, US$ 50/bbl, respectively, taking into account...
INR6.8b) due to Generation declined 5% YoY to 8.1BU in 1QFY21 due to the shutdown of 2 Chamera units and lower water availability. NHPC is also planning to complete the linkage of work by Oct20, thereby increasing discharge of water for Parbati-II. NHPC expects to receive INR18b from the PFC-REC scheme on completion of certain formalities for J&K.; Capex run-rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/exploring new projects, which is expected to reduce FCF and drag RoEs in the near term. Generation declined 5% YoY to 8.1BU in 1QFY21 due to shutdown of two Chamera units and lower water availability. Moreover, commissioning for the project is still some time away (FY24 Capex run-rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/exploring new projects, which is expected to reduce FCF and drag RoEs in the near term.
estimates of Rs1,743 largely due to one-time covid-19 related donation equivalent to Rs227/t. Impacted by weak revenue and one-time CSR expenses, EBITDA fell 49% QoQ/60% YoY at Rs7.5bn (PLe:Rs7.9bn). PAT fell 55% QoQ/55% YoY at Rs5.3bn (PLe:Rs6.2bn) due to 46% QoQ/42% YoY fall in other...
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. is one of the largest defence PSUs engaged in the design, development, manufacture, repair, overhaul, upgrade and servicing of a wide range of products including, aircraft, helicopters, aero-engines, avionics, accessories and aerospace structures. The company has a strong order backlog of Rs. 52,000 cr. as of July 2020 which is expected to
Oil India (OIL) reported a mixed-bag in Q1FY21 where EBITDA was ahead of our forecast led by lower then estimated other expenses while net profit was below expectations driven by higher then estimated DDA expense. Revenue was down 48.3% YoY to Rs17.4 bn owing to 8.1%/8.6% YoY decline in oil/gas sales volume and 54%/29% YoY drop in oil/gas realization in Q1FY21. We expect oil production to fall by 2% in FY21 and flattish growth in FY22 due to natural decline. Gas volume is estimated to dip by 5% for FY21 before reaching to FY20 levels in FY22 on the back of Baghjan fire, flood and Covid-19. We forecast crude oil price (Brent) to average to US40/bbl and US$50/bbl in FY21 and...
Oil India Limited (Oil India) reported weak Q1FY2021 numbers, clocking a net loss of Rs. 249 crore (as against a net profit of Rs. 625 crore in Q1FY2020) due to: 1) weak oil and gas realisations, declining by 54.1% y-o-y and 29% y-o-y respectively, 2) higher-than-expected operating expenses on account of exploration cost write-off of Rs. 115 crore (versus negative Rs. 1 crore in Q1FY2020) and 3) exceptional expenses of Rs. 93 crore related to control blowout at Baghjan Oilfields and 4) lower-than-expected other income (down 87% q-o-q). Even after adjusting for exceptional expenses, net loss...
