NMDC Ltd. share price forecast

NMDC’s Q3FY23 EBITDA was in line with consensus estimates; however, it was lower than our estimates. Key highlights: 1) Best-ever Q3 production volume and second-best sales volume; 2) Chhattisgarh segment consisted of 70% of total sales volume (Q2FY23: 62%; Q3FY22: 75%); 3) EBITDA margin rebounded QoQ to 30.7%.

NMDC’s Q2FY23 EBITDA came below consensus estimates by 35%. Key highlights: 1) sharp decline in realisation through the quarter impacted earnings.

The process of commissioning of the steel plant has already started and hot metal production is likely to start in 1HFY23. We believe the demerger of the Nagarnar Iron and Steel Company (NISP) will be the key trigger for the stock. Thereafter, the government is likely to call for bids from potential suitor, which should likely culminate into sale of the government's holding in the steel plant to the new owner. The management has highlighted that the demerged financials would likely be presented to the Board in 1HFY23E....

During the quarter, NMDC reported iron ore sales volume of 9.8 MT, up 6% YoY & 9% QoQ (in line with our estimate of 9.9 MT). EBITDA/tonne came in at | 2654/tonne, higher than our estimate of | 2500/tonne (EBITDA/tonne of...

NMDC reported Q3FY22 EBITDA in line with our estimates while above consensus estimates (CE) by 3% at Rs26.1bn, down 16% QoQ/6% YoY. Global iron ore prices increased ~56% in last three months in wake of positive...

NMDC reported strong but inline set of numbers. Revenue/EBITDA/APAT for the quarter stood at INR58.7b/INR 26.1b/INR20.5b. The results were down sequentially due to continuous correction in iron ore prices during the last 6 months. EBITDA/t for the quarter was INR2,654/t (YoY down 5.6%, QoQ down 5.6%). The ore prices corrected due to weak international steel prices and lower production from China which resulted in surplus pellets in India leading to steep correction in ore prices by 37% during that period....

Metals & Mining: Takeaways from call with NMDC

NMDC intends to offset pricing headwinds with volume ramp-up in H2FY22

During the quarter, NMDC reported iron ore sales volume of 9.0 million tonnes (MT), up 36% YoY but down 5% QoQ (in line with our estimate of 8.9 million tonnes). EBITDA/tonne came in at | 3488/tonne, higher than our estimate of | 3000/tonne (EBITDA/tonne of | 4421/tonne in Q1FY22) For the quarter, revenue from operations was at | 6794 crore, up 205% YoY & 4% QoQ, higher than our estimate of | 5944 crore. EBIDTA for the quarter was at | 3115 crore, up 202%YoY but down 25%QoQ, higher than our estimate of | 2679 crore. Ensuing PAT was at | 2341 crore, up 202% YoY...

in steel mill's margins with sharp increase in coking coal cost. However, domestic iron ore supplies would remain uncertain due to surrender of auctioned mines and low visibility on production by state PSUs in Odisha. In spite of weakness in global iron ore prices, we maintain our Accumulate rating on back of attractive valuations, constrained domestic supplies and value unlocking on demerger of steel plant. We retain our TP of Rs170 based...

EBITDA for the quarter was at | 4178 crore (up 453% YoY but down 2% QoQ), higher than our estimate of | 3589 crore. EBITDA/tonne for Q1FY22 was at | 4421/tonne, higher than our estimate of | 3750/tonne...

Additional royalty of 22.5% (w.e.f. 28th March, 2021) impacted only half of its volumes as it included 5.1mnt of opening stock produced. NMDC reported Q1FY22 EBITDA below our estimates by 5% while above consensus estimates (CE) by 10%. Lower than estimated realisations was the...