Buy

We upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY rating.

Despite a recent slowdown in volume, Coal India is positioning itself for long-term sustainable growth through strategic diversification into coal gasification, critical minerals, and renewable energy. This is further supported by a robust net-cash-positive B/S and a strong dividend yield of ~7%. Consequently, we maintained a BUY rating on Coal India, thereby...

Revenue for 3QFY26 came at INR349b (-5% YoY and +16% QoQ) against our est. of INR345b. The decline was mainly led by muted volume during this fiscal.

3QFY26 revenue stood at INR76.1b (vs. our est. of INR71.1b), rising 16% YoY and 19% QoQ, primarily driven by improved volumes and better NSR. Iron ore production stood at 14.7mt (+11% YoY and +44% QoQ), while sales came in at 12.7mt (+6% YoY and +19% QoQ).

NMDC Ltd (National Mineral Development Corporation) is India's largest iron ore producer and exporter. It operates key mines in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka and has a strategic presence in minerals like diamonds and base metals. It plays a critical role in supplying raw material to the domestic steel industry....

Lloyds Metals and Energy, the largest iron ore miner in Maharashtra, has articulated four pillars of growth: core business of iron ore mining/pellet and DRI production getting boost from upcoming Chandrapur steel complex; acquisition of 79.8% stake in Thriveni Earthmovers’ MDO biz.

We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 360/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP.

Strategic Strength: One of India’s most scalable & cost-efficient mining ecosystems Growth Focus: Expansion into BHQ beneficiation, higher-value pellets, and long steel.

Marred by extended monsoons coal-based thermal power generation touched a ~30-mth low of 99.29GW in Sep’25, dampening the thermal coal off-take volume.

Revenue for 2QFY26 came at INR302b (-2% YoY and -16% QoQ), against our estimate of INR299b. The decline was mainly led by muted volume.

2QFY26 revenue stood at INR63.8b (vs. our est. of INR60.2b), up 30% YoY but down 5% QoQ, primarily affected by muted volumes.

LMEL enjoys cost advantage due to the low royalty on its pre-MMDR act 2015 (Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act) allocated mine. Operational efficiency is further enhanced by the acquisition of Thriveni Earthmovers, a leading Mine Developer and Operator...

NMDC Ltd (National Mineral Development Corporation) is India's largest iron ore producer and exporter. It operates key mines in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka and has a strategic presence in minerals like diamonds and base metals. It plays a critical role in supplying raw material to the domestic steel industry....

India’s total installed power capacity reached ~490GW as of Jul’25, grew at 7.8% CAGR over the past 15 years. Renewable energy (~237 GW, 49% share) has surpassed thermal capacity (~220 GW, 44% share), where RE and thermal grew at 10.9% and 6.5% CAGR, respectively, over the past 15 years.

Revenue stood in line with our estimate at INR67.4b, rising 25% YoY but declining 4% QoQ. Muted volumes QoQ were offset by healthy NSR.

Q1FY26 consolidated revenue of Rs. 35,842 crore was down 1.7% y-o-y. Volume saw a de-growth while the realization was almost flat y-o-y.

1QFY26 revenue came in at INR358b (-2% YoY and -5% QoQ) against our est. of INR372b. Adj. EBITDA (excluding OBR exp) stood at INR111b (-4% YoY and -1% QoQ) against our estimate of INR115b.

Despite MOIL reporting its highest quarterly production of 0.502m tonnes (up 6.8% y/y) in Q1, sales were down 21.4% y/y to 0.356m tonnes. We believe, when Q1 crude steel production rose 10.4% y/y (40.3m tonnes), the early monsoon in May’25 cut MOIL’s offtake.

In April 2025, China restricted rare earth exports, affecting Indian firms like Mahle, Bosch, TVS, Uno Minda, and Sona Comstar. These materials are vital for EVs and defense due to their use in high-strength permanent magnets. India, with 6.9% of global reserves, has launched a self-reliance push supported by incentive schemes.

We recommend a BUY on the stock with an upside of 10% from the CMP.