Lupin Ltd. share price target

Growth across all key markets; maintain Buy We maintain Buy rating on Lupin with TP to Rs930 (earlier Rs1,050) based on 23x March'20 EPS of Rs40.4. Lupin's Q4FY18 results were lower than our and consensus estimates due to pricing pressure in the US generic market. Lupin's revenue declined 5% YoY, margin declined 80bps to 17.6%, and net profit before EO item grew by 80%. The pricing pressure in the US has eased out due to discontinuation of several generic products by Teva and Sandoz. We believe the company's robust growth across key markets coupled with its strong pipeline of 163 pending ANDAs...

Lupin's (LPC) 4QFY18 revenue declined ~5% YoY to INR40.3b (est. of INR39.8b), largely led by muted US sales. Ongoing pricing pressure in the US led to 600bp YoY contraction in the gross margin to 66%. The EBITDA margin, too, shrank 840bp YoY to 17.6% (est. of 18.9%) due to increased operating cost. However, on a QoQ basis, both gross margin (+130bp) and EBITDA margin (+30bp) exhibited an improvement, offering some comfort. LPC reported a loss of INR7.8b in the quarter due to impairment provision related to Gavis. Adjusted for the same, PAT stood at INR3.9b (est. of INR3.3b). For FY18, sales, EBITDA and adj. PAT declined ~10%, 30% and 17.3% to INR158b, INR31.5b and INR21.1b, respectively

We interacted with Lupin management recently. The US market will become more competitive as pricing pressure would continue, but new launches will successfully offset the pricing pressure. However, we believe the stock is fairly priced and reiterate our HOLD rating on the stock.

Lupin Ltd.'s third quarter profit and margins declined, missing market estimates, as the drug maker incurred a foreign exchange loss. Company's consolidated profit fell sharply by 65 percent year-on-year to Rs 221.73 crore due to continued pricing pressure in the US and weak operational performance. Profit during the yearago period was at Rs 633.11 crore. Material cost increased by 250 bps to 35.7% of sales, at Rs.1392.7 cr. compared to Rs. 1286.5 cr., Personnel cost decreased by 90 bps to 17.8% of sales, at Rs. 693.1 cr. compared to Rs. 725 cr, Manufacturing and other expenses increased by 270 bps to 30.8% of sales at Rs. 1201.5 cr compared to Rs. 1087.4 cr in Q2 FY2018....

Lupin Ltd Q3FY18 results comment Revenue rose by 0.68% to Rs. 3900.36 Cr in Q3FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. On the other hand, it decreased by 11.45% when compared with Q3FY17.

Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs. 1,200 (20x Dec-19E EPS). Lupins (LPC) revenue performance in 3QFY18 was good, with the US business surprising positively. The top-line declined 7% YoY, on a high base that included sales of gGlumetza and gFortamet with limited competition. However, there was sequential growth of ~1% (despite a high domestic business base), driven by a better than expected performance in the US (+5% QoQ and ~10% above estimates).

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues declined 11% YoY to |3976 crore (I-direct estimate: |3927 crore) mainly due to 34% YoY de-growth in US to | 1432 crore (Idirect estimate: |1348 crore) led by high base of Metformin. India sales grew 8% to | 1069 crore (ex GST impact growth was 11%; Idirect estimate: |1170 crore), while Japan grew 23% to | 554 crore...

Lupin's Q3FY18 results were below our expectations. Total revenues were down by 4.7% compared to our estimates at Rs39bn down 11.5% YoY while Adj. PAT was substantially down by 65% YoY at Rs2.2bn against our estimates of Rs4.1bn which...

Lupin's revenues decreased by 11% YoY to Rs 39.7 bn in Q3FY18 higherthan our estimates of Rs 38.8 bn on the back of continued dismalperformance in US market. Operating margins decreased to 17.3% forQ3FY18 as compared to our estimates of 21.5% on account of forex impactof Rs 820 mn.

ff Warning Letter: LPC has made significant efforts during last four months to resolve the pending WL issue. It has hired top consultants (Lachman). Based on batch process records and data, which have been validated by independent agencies, there is much clarity on the...