Exide Industries Ltd. share price target

Replacement demand key to traverse sluggish growth phase Aftermarket i.e. replacement segment accounts for ~60-65% of channel mix for battery manufacturers, including EIL. The OEM segment, which forms a further 25-30% of overall demand, has been seeing prolonged correction over the past ~15 months, thus weighing on revenues even for ancillary companies. With a meaningful recovery in OEMs still some way away (H2FY21E), a sustained performance on the replacement side would be key, going forward. Aftermarket segment continues to be the beneficiary of a...

3QFY20 revenues/EBITDA/PAT grew -3%/2%/38% YoY to INR24.1b/ Revenue growth was driven by strong volume growth in the auto aftermarket business, UPS batteries and export market. However, weakness in OEM business, telecom and infrastructure batteries along with impact of lower lead prices resulted in ~3% revenue decline. Higher other income and lower tax boosted YoY PAT growth by ~38% to ~INR2.1b Demand was weak from automobile OEM, telecom and other infrastructure segments. The company is focused on cost control measures and technology upgrades While the industry structure remains largely duopoly, EXID is the largest lead acid battery manufacturer in India with leadership in auto OEMs and the We downgrade our EPS estimates by ~4% for FY21 to factor in the lead price The stock trades at valuations of 18.2x/16.4x FY21/FY22E consol. Further, we expect migration in the replacement segment from the unorganized sector to organized players like EXID and AMRJ, driven by reforms such as GST and lower corporate tax rates.

Exide Industries Limited (EIL) is a leader in storage battery business with a market share of 60% in India. Its segment includes automotive and industrial lead - acid batteries. Q2FY20 revenue de-grew by -4%YoY owing to negative 2W industry growth of -17%. However strong sales from the aftermarket batteries & home invertor offset further decline. EBITDA margin improved by 160bps due to softening of lead price by -3.3YoY. Adj. PAT grew by 46%YoY....

Steady aftermarket to lend support; stable lead prices to help! Consumable providers such as battery makers, including EIL, realise ~5060% demand from the replacement market. Strong OEM sales in FY16-19 and short replacement cycles are, thus, expected to stand these companies in good stead during the ongoing slowdown in fresh vehicle sales. Margins at battery manufacturers have a close correlation with pricing and outlook for key raw material, viz. lead, with the impact felt with a quarterly lag. Batteries being a largely commoditised product, companies including Exide then pass on the pricing variation to end consumers. Lead prices rose ~7%...

Topline seen consolidating, margins to track muted lead prices! The duopolistic domestic battery market in the automotive segment realises demand from OEMs and aftermarket typically in ~40:60 ratio. The auto OEM space is currently in the grip of a slowdown given poor consumer sentiment and liquidity troubles. Hence, volume growth at ancillary players such as battery manufacturers would largely depend on aftermarket demand. The same is expected to be healthy given strong OEM sales over FY16-18. Simultaneously, margins at battery players including Exide are expected to...

Exide's Q1FY20 results were ahead of our estimates. The net revenue was ` 27.8bn (+0.2% YoY on a high base) (vs estimate of ` 25bn), as the increase in revenue from the automotive replacement and industrial segments, was offset by fall in lead prices and weak OEMs sales. The EBITDA was ` 4bn (+4.3% YoY), with expanded margin at 14.7% (+57bps YoY/+31bps QoQ) due to a decline in lead prices, a better product mix, and cost control measures. The APAT grew 7% YoY to ` 2.25bn in Q1FY20. We expect Exide to benefit from: 1) further improvement in the...

lithium-ion solutions by Q3FY20 would address concerns on its readiness pertaining to mobility landscape changes. We believe that healthy growth momentum in auto replacement, industrial and exports segments would help contain weak OEM demand. We maintain Accumulate with a price target of Rs231, based on 19xMar'21E standalone EPS plus Rs30 for value of...

Wide- ranging reforms such as Make in India, Digital India and Smart cities, among others. Implementation of GST, accelerating demand shift from unorganized to organized players....

Exide Industries Limited (EIL) is a leader in storage battery business with a market share of 60% in India. Its segment includes automotive and industrial lead acid batteries. Revenue for the Q4FY19 grew by 6%YoY, in line with our...

Exide reported better than expected profitability for Q4FY19. Its net sales was in line with our forecast at Rs 25,987 mn while EBITDA was above our forecast by 12.1% at Rs 3,733mn (+19.4%QoQ, +10.4% YoY) benefiting from lower lead prices. EBITDA margin expanded 185bps QoQ and 62bps YoY to 14.4%, beating our forecast by 135bps. EBITDA margins benefited from falling lead prices (-10.0% YoY in Q4FY19 in INR terms) and better price realization. Further, net profit saw a strong growth of 35.9% QoQ to Rs 2,107mn aided by higher other income which increased by 107.8% QoQ to Rs 166mn. We raise our margin estimates for FY20 given better than expected cost performance in...