Exide Industries Ltd. share price forecast

Exide (EXID)'s performance was impacted by high RM cost inflation and higher OEM contribution. We expect sustained recovery, led by OEM recovery and aftermarket growth, with a continuous shift from the unorganized to the organized segment. EXID has confirmed it is setting up a li-ion cell manufacturing plant irrespective of the benefit from...

Exide Industries Limited (EIL) is a leader in storage battery business with a market share of 60% in India. Its segment includes automotive & industrial batteries and holds 86% market share in the 2W space. Q1FY22 revenue grew by 61% YoY primarily due to lower base and strong growth from the Aftermarket & UPS segment. As a result, EBITDA margin expanded by 90bps YoY. Despite 20% increase in the lead price for the quarter stringent cost control measure led the PAT to grew by 185% YoY....

EXID's 1QFY22 results came below expectations as EBITDA came 30% below PLe, led by lower gross margins impacted by inventory losses and higher fixed costs due to lower scale of operations. While there was significant pickup in industrial segment and exports, automotive OEM sales were impacted due to lockdowns. Replacement sales remained strong both in Automotive and UPS segments. Going forward we believe growth in replacement segment (~65% of industry) to sustain since the battery has a...

Exide Industries Limited (EIL) is a leader in storage battery business with a market share of 60% in India. Its segment includes automotive & industrial batteries and holds 86% market share in the 2W space. Q4FY21 revenue grew by 43%YoY primarily due to lower base and strong growth from the Aftermarket & UPS segment. As a result, EBITDA margin expanded by 90bps. Despite 20% increase in the lead price for the quarter stringent cost control measure led the PAT to grew by 45%YoY....

Exide reported better than expected Q4FY21 results as its sales/EBITDA/net profit were higher than our forecasts by 25%/31%/41%, respectively. Net sales increased 43% YoY to Rs29 bn led by strong growth in Automotive, Industrial, Replacement and UPS batteries segments. EBITDA increased 53% YoY to Rs4,123 mn and EBITDA margin expanded 88bps YoY to 14.0%. However, sharp increase in interest and tax expenses...

For EIL, we build 16.9%, 11.1% sales, PAT CAGR in FY21P-23E. Valuations for EIL remain fairly reasonable but fresh demand concerns and expected margin pressures prompt us to downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD. We assign a revised SOTP-based target price of | 200 (earlier | 225). We await contours of the PLI scheme for advance cell chemistry (| 18,000 crore...

Exide (EXID)'s 4QFY21 performance was driven by all-round strong growth. We expect strength in the aftermarket to continue with the shift from the unorganized to the organized segment, whereas FY22 would see cyclical recovery in demand from the OEM segment. We largely maintain our earnings estimate. Maintain Buy, with TP of ~INR220/share (~15x FY23 EPS + INR25/share for the Insurance business)....

Exide Industries Limited (EIL) is a leader in storage battery business with a market share of 60% in India. Its segment includes automotive & industrial batteries and holds 86% market share in the 2W space. Amid challenging business environment, Exide posted a revenue growth of 16%YoY led by pend up demand from the Auto manufactures & strong aftermarket sales EBITDA was above estimates, at Rs.403cr (23% YoY) with margin of 14.4% (+90bps YoY) led by cost optimisation....

In Q3FY21, NII increased 10.8% YoY, 3.9% QoQ to | 3406 crore. Margins for the quarter declined a tad by 4 bps QoQ. Other income increased QoQ by 9.8% to | 1705 crore. This was mainly on account of 31% QoQ rise in core fee income. Operating expenses were under control. As a result, the costto-income ratio was down ~171 bps YoY to 41.8% but was up sequentially by ~41 bps, attributable to a rise in business activity. Provisions remained elevated at | 1854 crore but was down 5.6% QoQ. During the quarter, the bank made provisions worth | 1106 crore for Covid related stress. Overall, led by a sequential decline in provisions and pick-up in topline, the bank...

Exide reported better than expected Q3FY21 results as its sales/EBITDA/Net profit were higher than our forecasts by 10%/13%/21%, respectively. Net sales increased 16.2% YoY to Rs28 bn on strong increase in Auto and UPS segment volumes. EBITDA increased 25.9% YoY to Rs4,028 mn and EBITDA margin expanded 110bps YoY to 14.4%. However, sharp increase in interest and tax expenses restricted Exide's net profit growth to 10.9%...

Exide Industries (Exide) the bellwether of Indian Automotive and Industrial Battery manufacturing industry is well poised to take advantage of the blooming replacement market demand within automotive, telecom and inverter batteries. The company is consistently gaining market share on the auto replacement side of the business through exit of various unorganized players during pandemic. With the replacement nature of the product, battery volumes are expected to surge in the near to mid- term, for which the company has already ramped up its capacities recently. On the OEM side of the business, the company with more than 60% market share has gained single source vendor position with various best selling new models. On the industrial side of the business, the...

Domestic auto industry volumes have been on a steady mend in the months post lifting of lockdown restrictions. Manufacturing and distribution activities have been getting ramped up gradually since June 2020, in step with the rest of the economy. However, the impact of the pandemic on the supply chain continues to inhibit a complete return to production normalcy. Nevertheless, most automotive industry segments have reported successive improvement in offtake throughout June-November 2020 (Exhibit 1) on the back of (i) initial bounce provided by pent-up aspect,...

We re-iterate BUY on Exide Industries (EXID) as the company is in a sweet spot, 1) to ride intensified replacement market share gains (~1-2% in each segments) from unorganized players post lockdown, 2) entry with new OEMs to help strengthen its leadership, 3) channel checks indicate replacement demand to come back in high margin telecom segments, post lull of 2 -3 years...