Exide Industries Ltd. share price target

Exide is a leading battery producer in India and one of the largest power storage producers in South Asia

Exide Industries reported better than expected results as sales/EBITDA/net profit were higher than our forecasts by 11%/19%/27%. Net sales increased 5.5% YoY to Rs27.5 bn led by improvement in demand from replacement and UPS segments. EBITDA improved 6.8% YoY to Rs3,920 mn and EBITDA margin stood at 14.2%, a marginal expansion of 17bps YoY. However, sharp increases in interest and tax expenses led Exide's net profit...

Lead prices grew by 9.5% QoQ/ (-2.5% YoY) in 2QFY21 to Rs139/kg. In 3QFY21 so-far it declined to ~Rs131/kg. EXIDE 2QFY21 margins exceeded expectations at 14.2% (PLe 13%, +10bp YoY) led by cost control measures and better gross margins. While there was significant pick up in replacement and UPS batteries demand, OEM segment too started picking up in later part of the quarter. Going forward we believe...

Exide (EXID)'s 2QFY21 performance was a miss on all counts weaker revenue growth, weak gross margins, and higher staff cost. This was despite the favorable mix from the replacement market. We expect strength in the...

Exide Industries Limited (EIL) is a leader in storage battery business with a market share of 60% in India. Its segment includes automotive and industrial lead - acid batteries. Q1FY21 revenue de-grew by -44%YoY led by subdued Auto production impacting OEM Volume. However strong pend up demand from the aftermarket sales offset further decline. EBITDA margin contracted by 560bps as the benefit of the lower lead price was overshadowed by loss of production....

EIL has a healthy balance sheet that is debt free in nature and surplus cash of ~| 170 crore as of FY20P. It has a capital efficient business model with nearly ~15% RoCE, ~>20% RoIC's and controlled working capital cycle (<90 days). It has also been a consistent CFO and FCF positive company with present CFO & FCF yield presently placed at ~7% & ~4% respectively. These attributed place EIL in good stead making it aptly capable to tide over...

Further, FY21 should see continued benefit of mix (lower OEMs) and lead prices. We have downgraded our EPS by 4.5%/1.4% for FY21/FY22E to factor in weaker 1QFY21 revenues/EBITDA/PAT declined 44%/64%/80% YoY to INR15.5b/ Revenue declined due to the lockdown impact on auto/non-auto segments and the OEM/replacement businesses. The company is focussing on cost control measures and technology upgrades to We have downgraded our EPS by 4.5%/1.4% for FY21/22E to factor in the lower revenues, better mix and lower lead prices. structure remains largely duopoly, EXID is the largest lead acid battery manufacturer in India with leadership in Auto OEMs and the replacement segment. However, EXID has largely caught up with competitors by investing in technology and by being more proactive in customer service and plugging gaps EXID should improve its market share as economic recovery led demand would come in from AUTO OEMs and the Industrial segment.

Exide's net sales were 12.1% lower than expected; nevertheless, EBITDA margin was 137bps higher than our forecast. Net sales decreased 20.9% YoY to Rs20.5 bn mainly due to weakness in Auto OEM segment. Further, nationwide lockdown in late March affected Q4FY20 sales. EBITDA fell 27.6%% YoY to Rs2,702 mn representing an EBITDA margin of 13.1% (-121bps YoY). Exide's net profit declined 20.3% YoY to Rs1,680 mn. Its...

We maintain a constructive view on EIL for its technological edge, debt free B/S, strong cash generation track record (present CFO yield at 6.6%) but feel the stock is fairly valued at CMP. Hence, we downgrade it to HOLD, valuing it at | 170 (SOTP basis), (battery business at | 125 i.e. 12.9x P/E on FY22E...

Furthermore, FY21 would see the continued benefit of the mix (lower OEMs) We upgrade our EPS by 8%/10% for FY21/FY22E to factor lower revenues, a better mix, and lower lead prices. Maintain with TP of ~INR205 (~16x S/A Mar22 EPS + INR21/sh for the Life Insurance remains largely duopoly, Exide is the largest lead acid battery manufacturer in India, with leadership in the Auto OEM and Replacement segments. However, EXID has largely caught up with competitors by investing in technology, being more proactive in customer service, and plugging the gaps in the product portfolio, among other EXID plans to improve its market share as economic recovery has resulted in demand from the Auto OEM and Industrial segments. We upgrade our EPS by 8%/10% for FY21/FY22E to factor lower revenues, a better mix, and lower lead prices. We prefer EXID as it offers superior risk-reward considering its market leadership, technology alliances, backward integration, and better mix.