ACC Ltd. share price target

ACC Q3FY25 revenue and earnings beat our estimates supported by one-offs, however, Adj. EBITDA and PAT came in below our expectations. Revenue increased by 20.6% YoY (+28.5% QoQ) to INR 59,274 Mn, driven by higher volume growth of 20.5% YoY, beating our estimates. Adjusted revenue stood at INR 52,905 Mn, up 7.7% YoY (+14.7% QoQ), excluding a one-time refund of INR 6,368.6 Mn related to excise duty expenses.

We change our rating from HOLD to BUY on the recent correction in stock price.

ACC Q2FY25 revenue and earnings beat our estimates, however, EBITDA performance was below our expectations.
Revenue increased by 4.0 YoY (-10.5% QoQ) to INR 46,135 Mn, driven by higher volume growth of 14.8%, beating our estimates.

We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock

ACC Q1FY25 earnings fell short of our expectations despite exceeding our projections on revenue.
Revenue declined to INR 51,549 Mn, down 0.9% YoY (-4.7% QoQ), beating our estimates primarily driven by jump in sales volume.

Q1FY25 revenue stayed flat YoY as 8.5% uptick in volume was offset by realisation drop of 8.3%

We downgrade our recommendation on the stock from BUY to HOLD.

In current times of cement price weakness (hikes attempted in Apr’24 have not only reversed but prices have slipped further in May’24)

ACC reported better-than-expected numbers, beating estimates across the board.
Revenue increased by 12.9% YoY to INR 54,087 Mn (+5.8% vs. our estimate), primarily due to a jump in cement and clinker volumes (+23.5% YoY).

Q4 revenue growth of 13% YoY boosted by 22% uptick in volumes (unadjusted to MSA) while realisations moderated ~7%

We roll over our estimate to FY26 and maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.