Shree Cements Ltd. share price target

Focus on improving utilisation to drive growth About the stock: Shree Cement is the 3rd largest cement producer in India with Shree Cement's revenue has grown by 8% CAGR over FY22-25, while EBITDA has grown by 13.6% over the same period Q3FY26 performance: Revenue increased by 4.3% YoY to Rs 4416.4 crore, mainly led by improvement in realization by 5.1% YoY. Sales volumes remained muted (0.8% YoY) to 7.9 mtpa. Sequentially, revenue is up 2.6%, led by 10.1% QoQ volume growth while realisation declined 6.8% QoQ. EBITDA/ton declined by 8.4% YoY (8.2% QoQ) to Rs 989/ton. Absolute EBITDA decreased by 9.1% YoY (+1.1% QoQ) to...

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) 3QFY26 EBITDA at INR9.2b dipped 3% YoY and was ~9% below our estimate, mainly due to lower-than-estimated volume and realization/t. This was, however, partly offset by lower opex/t. EBITDA/t at INR1,049 declined 4% YoY (est. INR1,077).

SRCM revenue grew ~4%/3% YoY/QoQ to Rs44.2bn in Q3FY26, driven by better realisations and premium mix; realisation QoQ softens

Reported PAT increased 197.6% YoY to Rs. 277cr owing to higher topline and lower finance costs (-10.5% YoY). The company's focus on value-over-volume strategy and premiumisation helped services tax rates on cement to 18% from 28%, which is expected to boost cement demand in the long term. Additionally, stable employment and low inflation are expected to boost demand, driving growth in infrastructure development and the housing sector, which will be favourable for cement demand. The company's focus on increasing the share of green power is expected to drive its growth better...

Shree Cement (SRCM) has been comparatively slower than its peers in terms of capacity expansion in one of its core markets in the north region, which led to market share loss for SRCM and also risks its pricing strategy over the medium term.

Near-term profitability is likely to remain constrained by elevated input costs and subdued pricing in key regions. Nonetheless, a post-monsoon recovery in demand, improving plant utilization, and commissioning of new capacities are expected to support a gradual earnings rebound.

About the stock: Shree Cement is the 3rd largest cement producer in India with Continuous focus on operational efficiencies to further improve EBITDA/ton: Company's EBITDA/ton improved substantially YoY to 1235/ton in H1FY26, primarily due to better realizations as company remains focused on increasing share of premium product portfolio (reached 21% of trade sales in Q2FY26). Going ahead, though we expect company's EBITDA/ton to remain flattish in H2FY26 (as compared to H1FY26), but full year FY26E EBITDA/ton would be significantly better on YoY basis. Moreover, profitability is expected to improve...

Shree Cement reported a resilient performance in Q2FY26 despite seasonal headwinds, supported by premiumization and cost discipline. Revenue rose 15% YoY to Rs43bn down 12% QoQ driven by stronger realizations and an improved product mix, while EBITDA increased 46% YoY to Rs8.5bn, translating to Rs1,049/t up 44% YoY. PAT surged 198% YoY to Rs2.8bn, underscoring robust margin recovery. Cement volumes grew 6.8% YoY to 7.9mn tonnes, though sequentially lower due to extended monsoons and softer North India demand. Realizations improved to Rs4,840/t, aided by the premium segment's share...

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Shree Cement (SRCM) reported standalone EBITDA (adjusted) at Rs8.75bn (up 48% YoY, albeit down 29% QoQ), which came in ~10% below our estimate. In contrast to its weak YoY volume growth (-8%) in Q1FY26, SRCM reported ~4% growth in Q2FY26 which is in line with the industry growth estimate.

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) 2QFY26 EBITDA was below our estimate due to higher-than-estimated opex/t. EBITDA (adjusted for one-off) stood at INR8.8b (up 48% YoY; ~9% below our estimates).

We recommend BUY on Shree Cement Ltd. with a Target Price of Rs 33,960/share, offering an upside potential of 13% from CMP.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Revenue growth stays soft in a healthy quarter as volume remain weak. Realisation gains offset volume weakness

Shree Cement (SRCM) reported a robust performance in Q1FY26 with EBITDA growing by 34% YoY to Rs12bn, driven by effective cost control and pricing strategy. Net profit almost doubled to Rs6,185mn, up 95% QoQ, underlining the company's margin improvement and operational leverage. The EBITDA margin expanded by nearly 590 bps YoY to 24.8%, and cash profit also saw a healthy 24% YoY rise to Rs12mn. Total sales volume for the Q1 2026 stood at 9mn tonnes. The contribution of premium cement products in trade sales improved to 17.7%, up from 15.6% QoQ. Given the improvement in cement prices, we...

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) Q1FY26 volume declined 7% YoY, yet the EBIDTA surged 34% YoY led by price hikes. With blended realisation rising ~4% QoQ (up 10% YoY), EBITDA/t catapulted 44% YoY (down a mere 2% QoQ) to INR 1,373.

SRCM reported a weak operating standalone performance in Q1FY26, impacted by a 7% YoY decline in volumes impacted by geopolitical issues in May'25. Blended NSR rose 3.8% QoQ, supported by significant price hikes in the East and South regions post Mar'25. Power and fuel costs continued to decline, aided by a higher share of renewable energy, helping SRCM achieve an EBITDA of Rs1,373/t, though other expenses remained elevated. As cement pricing across regions remain sticky aided by relatively better demand, we expect SRCM to deliver strong Q2 on a weak base. With its focus on value over volume,...

Shree Cement’s (SRCM) 1QFY26 operating performance was in line with our estimates. EBITDA increased ~34% YoY to INR12.3b and EBITDA/t rose ~44% YoY to INR1,373 (est. INR1,325).