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We maintain our FY21/22 earnings estimates. During Q1FY21, core standalone EBIDTA adjusted for inventory gains and forex loss was healthy at Rs34.0bn (+31%YoY) despite lower refining margins ($0.4/bbl vs $2.8/bbl in Q1FY20). Weak global demand and high inventory levels will likely keep crude oil prices range bound, thereby supporting marketing margins in medium term. Meanwhile GRMs will also recover with pickup in economic...
Significant impact in physical performance coupled with lower price realisations. Maintain Accumulate GAIL's Q1FY21 results were below our estimates on revenue front and...
Gas transmission segment volumes were down 14.4% YoY at 90.2 mmscmd (our estimate: 97.5 mmscmd) as offtake was lower due to impact of lockdown. Going ahead, we estimate transmission volumes at 109 mmscmd, 127.5 mmscmd for FY21E, FY22E, respectively, due to additional domestic gas from newer fields. The gas transmission EBIT at | 716.7 crore, was down 16.6% YoY but above our estimates due to lower costs. Gas trading volumes declined 15.9% YoY to 81.2 mmscmd. Gas trading reported loss of | 545.5 crore (estimated profit: | 214.9 crore) as the company had to...
GAIL (India) Q1FY21 result disappointed at almost all the parameters led by dismal result from trading division, which reported loss against expectations of profit. Though, volume decline was lower than our estimates but, 1) inventory loss of Rs2.5 bn at marketing division, 2) net loss at petchem division due to lower utilization, and 3) sharp fall of 46% YoY in LHC profit translated to 72%/80% YoY fall in EBITDA/PAT. On a positive note, the management highlighted that transmission/trading business has reached closer to preCovid levels while petchem and LHC plants are operating at 100% utilization. However, wide spread between Spot and long term contract LNG price raises concern over profitability of gas trading division. The company expects transmission volume to increase by 10mmscmd...
Weak performance: GAIL reported sharply lower than expected Q1FY21 results- EBITDA Rs6.2bn (PLe: Rs16.9bn; -72% YoY) and PAT at Rs2.5bn (PLe Rs11.0bn; -80% YoY), respectively. Profit was dragged by lower...
Quarterly results surprised us on positive side BEL reported earnings which were better than our expectations at 541 mn, against our expectations of a loss. Revenues de-grew by 19.7%/71.4% yoy/qoq to 16.4 bn, which were above our expectations as the company executed the ventilators order of 4 bn in the quarter. Exventilators, the revenues dropped by 40% yoy. LRSAM, Smart City business, Intelligence Gathering Systems, Thermal Imaging Cameras and Radar repairs were the other revenue contributors in Q1. Reduction in RM to sales at 49.3% led to gross margin expansion at 50.7%. EBITDA margins came in at 8.8% which were down by 780 bps yoy, but were still better than our expectations of operational loss, on gross margin beat. PAT as a result of this came in at 541 mn, which was better than...
This was weighed by the COVID-19 impact on volumes (-21% YoY) and structural increase in fixed cost due to a >5x increase in land license fee (LLF) charged by the Railways for the use of its land. Revenue declined to INR11.9b (-27% YoY / -24% QoQ), v/s our estimate of INR12.1b, on weaker volumes and realization. EXIM volumes stood at 627,905 TEUs (-20% YoY / -19% QoQ) and domestic volumes were at 104,806 TEUs (-25% YoY / -37% QoQ). EXIM realization was weak at INR14,344/TEU (-11% YoY / -2% QoQ), while domestic realization stood at INR27,524/TEU (+5% YoY / +4% QoQ). Total expenditure, however, declined marginally to INR10.3b (-17% YoY, -6% QoQ) on higher LLF effective from 1QFY21. However, from 1QFY21, MoR changed the LLF charged to 6% of the value of the land and raised demand for INR7.76b for FY21 (>5x of INR1.
Q1 revenues were in line with estimates (refer Exhibit 1), though PAT was ahead of estimates on lower interest costs. It has done a capex of Rs19bn, while capitalization was Rs12bn, during the quarter. It has guided for a capex of Rs105bn and capitalization of Rs200250bn in FY21. The current CWIP Rs363bn, while work in hand is Rs510bn. With reducing capex, we believe that dividends payouts can...
Reported GRMs during the quarter were at zero, lower than our estimate of US$3.8/bbl. Core GRMs were weak at -US$0.9/bbl while inventory loss was at US$0.9/bbl. Benchmark Singapore GRMs are currently at very low levels and marginal recovery was witnessed recently. Improvement in petrol & diesel spreads will be important for stable GRMs. We estimate GRMs at...
