New Research Reports

VBL reported a strong and largely in-line quarter. India revenue growth was better at ~18% (vs expectation of ~15%), helped by ~16%/2% growth in volume/realization.

Quarterly Update Q1CY25

4QFY25 sales were in line, but EBITDA 2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus

With an 8% upside from the CMP, we maintain HOLD

We cut FY26/FY27EPS by 3.1/3% factoring in 80/50bps cut in margins to 22.7/23.3% in FY26/27 as HUVR transitions through the inflationary phase and invests in Innovation, new products, A&P, distribution channel etc. to push for growth as it expects demand recovery to set in. HUL continues to focus on transforming its portfolio contribution from Core to Future Core & Market Mover. HUVR is making a big push in premium segments in Beauty and wellbeing to regain lost ground by acquisitions and new launches, which should start showing impact by end of 1H26. HFD turnaround seems tough given...

Nescafe, Milkmaid, Masala-Ae-Magic, Petcare reported double-digit growth while KitKat reported high-single digit growth NESTLE saw a decent quarter with margin beat as calibrated price hikes neutralized the impact of high inflation in coffee and cocoa. Although demand remains weak, there seems QoQ improvement across segments. Although we expect gradual pick up in volume growth, high input cost inflation in coffee &...

We retain REDUCE on Nestlé India and Mar-26E TP of Rs2,300, on 60x P/E. We see demand stress persisting in a major part of the portfolio, with demand for milk products continuing to see impact of healthy price hikes (amid inflation) and competitive pressure in prepared dishes.

We remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects. With a 10% upside potential from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

4QFY25 sales were above our estimates, but EBITDA was in line. NEST continues to manage margins despite high cocoa/coffee inflation

Hindustan Unilever’s (HUVR) 4QFY25 consolidated revenue was up 3% at INR154.5b (in line), with 2% underlying volume growth (est. 1%, 0% in 3QFY25). Rural demand continues to show gradual improvement, while urban demand remains subdued.

HUL’s Q4 was broadly in line with the Street’s expectations, with volumes growing 2% y/y (vs. 0-2% estimated) and the EBITDA margin at 22.8% (vs. 23%).

Nestle India (Nestle) reported a 4.5% YoY growth in total revenue in 4QFY25, in line with our estimate. Domestic sales grew only 4.2% YoY (vs. 9% growth in the previous eight quarters) given the macroeconomic headwinds.

Nestle’s Q4FY25 operational performance was subdued with revenue growth of 4% YoY on a high base of 9% and ~100 bps margin contraction primarily due to inflationary pressures in key raw materials such as coffee, edible oil and palm oil.

Tea market share losses to unorganised / regional players are limiting inflation pass-through. Margin recovery now reliant on deflation

Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS) reported 17% revenue growth in 4QFY25, while EBIT declined 9% YoY. EBIT was affected by higher input costs (tea cost inflation) in Indian branded business, which declined 25% YoY, and a 4% EBIT drop in international branded beverage segment.

TCPL’s Q4FY25 numbers were good with consolidated revenue growing by 17.3% y-o-y to Rs. 4,608 crore (12% y-o-y organic revenue growth), with India beverage business revenues growing by 17% y-o-y (9% y-o-y organic growth), India foods business improving 27% y-o-y (organic growth at 17%), international business growing by 5% y-o-y and non-branded business reporting a 25% y-o-y growth.

We recently upgraded GCPL to BUY from Reduce, as we see that most headwinds are in the base. GCPL has capability of recovering business, given prudent execution.

We recently downgraded Dabur to REDUCE, given its weak execution. Dabur, in its Q4FY25 business update, noted a mid-single-digit decline in the domestic business, which is a key business concern in our view.