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Nestle’s Q4FY25 revenue came at INR 55,039 Mn up 4.5% YoY (+15.2% QoQ), which was in-line with our estimates. EBITDA stood at INR 13,890 Mn., up 2.9% YoY (+26.0% QoQ), beating our estimates by 5.4%, mainly driven by positive operating leverage. EBITDA margin contracted -39 bps YoY (+217 bps QoQ) to 25.2%.
HUL’s Revenue for Q4FY25 stood at INR 1,56,700 Mn., up 3.0% YoY (-0.9% QoQ), largely in-line with our estimates. EBITDA came in at INR 36,190 Mn. up 2.4% YoY (-2.1% QoQ), which was below our estimates mainly due to higher-than-expected employee costs.
TCPL’s Q4FY25 consolidated revenue stood at INR 46,082 Mn up 17.3% YoY (+3.7% QoQ), which was above our estimates by 1.7%. EBITDA came it at INR 6,210 Mn down1.4% YoY (+10.0% QoQ), which was below our estimates by 4.5% driven by higher-than-expected operating expenses.
We retain REDUCE on Nestlé India and Mar-26E TP of Rs2,300, on 60x P/E. We see demand stress persisting in a major part of the portfolio, with demand for milk products continuing to see impact of healthy price hikes (amid inflation) and competitive pressure in prepared dishes.
HUL’s Q4 was broadly in line with the Street’s expectations, with volumes growing 2% y/y (vs. 0-2% estimated) and the EBITDA margin at 22.8% (vs. 23%).
Nestle India (Nestle) reported a 4.5% YoY growth in total revenue in 4QFY25, in line with our estimate. Domestic sales grew only 4.2% YoY (vs. 9% growth in the previous eight quarters) given the macroeconomic headwinds.
Hindustan Unilever’s (HUVR) 4QFY25 consolidated revenue was up 3% at INR154.5b (in line), with 2% underlying volume growth (est. 1%, 0% in 3QFY25). Rural demand continues to show gradual improvement, while urban demand remains subdued.
Nestle’s Q4FY25 operational performance was subdued with revenue growth of 4% YoY on a high base of 9% and ~100 bps margin contraction primarily due to inflationary pressures in key raw materials such as coffee, edible oil and palm oil.
Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS) reported 17% revenue growth in 4QFY25, while EBIT declined 9% YoY. EBIT was affected by higher input costs (tea cost inflation) in Indian branded business, which declined 25% YoY, and a 4% EBIT drop in international branded beverage segment.
TCPL’s Q4FY25 numbers were good with consolidated revenue growing by 17.3% y-o-y to Rs. 4,608 crore (12% y-o-y organic revenue growth), with India beverage business revenues growing by 17% y-o-y (9% y-o-y organic growth), India foods business improving 27% y-o-y (organic growth at 17%), international business growing by 5% y-o-y and non-branded business reporting a 25% y-o-y growth.
We recently upgraded GCPL to BUY from Reduce, as we see that most headwinds are in the base. GCPL has capability of recovering business, given prudent execution.
We recently downgraded Dabur to REDUCE, given its weak execution. Dabur, in its Q4FY25 business update, noted a mid-single-digit decline in the domestic business, which is a key business concern in our view.
We met with the management of Marico (MRCO) to discuss industry trends, the company’s growth across verticals, and its long-term strategies. MRCO is focused on achieving steady double-digit growth, driven by the gradually improving trajectory in its core categories, rapid scaling of new-age businesses, and stable growth in international markets.
CY24 was a transformative year for Varun Beverages Limited (VBL), marked by strong growth, global expansion, and unwavering sustainability commitments.
