Buy

Growth momentum continues with 16% YoY topline growth in FY23 and market share gains in >75% of the portfolio

Recommendation: We maintain our BUY rating on the stock and revise our TP upwards at Rs 1,450 per share, which indicates upside potential of 11% from the CMP of Rs 1,306.

While we are constructive on the long-term growth prospects of the LI sector, we believe major tectonic shifts will create near-term challenges, albeit preparing the industry for a cleaner insurance penetration. Contrary to expectations of relief in the Union Budget, life insurers are expected to be adversely impacted by the first-order and second-order changes proposed in the Finance Act'23. Conversation with industry experts suggest that the top four private life insurers are likely to witness 20-27% adverse impact on FY24E APE predominantly on account of the impending transition to the new tax regime. We flag high ceding charges in guaranteed NPAR savings as the next potential target as policymakers look to protect policyholder interest and improve life insurance (LI) penetration. While the demand for retail term protection remains subdued and the Apr-23 growth print was soft, we await evidence of medium-term growth momentum.

Lemon Tree Hotels (LTH) clocked its best-ever quarter in Q4FY23, and with the company having achieved FY23 revenue and EBITDA of Rs8.8bn and Rs4.5bn respectively, the company has exceeded its FY23 guidance of revenue growing 100% YoY to Rs8.0bn at an EBITDA margin of 50%.

Strong RevPAR, healthy room additions drive growth