489.20 -13.55 (-2.70%)
295.5K NSE+BSE Volume
BSEJun 23, 2021 11:08 AM
The 6 reports from 2 analysts offering long term price targets for Sobha Ltd. have an average target of 396.00. The consensus estimate represents a downside of -19.05% from the last price of 489.20.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-08-03||Sobha Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||210.65||348.00||210.65 (132.23%)||Target met||Buy|
We maintain BUY with a target price of Rs 348/sh Sobha Developers Limiteds (SDL) FY20 annual report is more an annual ritual with clear cut disclosures and conservative treatment of real estate sales. The pre-sales for FY20 remained flattish at 4.1mn sqft. A few yellow flags do require further clarity in (1) SEBI emails seeking clarifications on certain business transactions done in earlier years (SDL has mentioned no adverse financial impact of it) and (2) related party dealings with promoter entity Sobha Projects and Trade Pvt Ltd. SDL, with a strong brand positioning, robust unused bank limits (Rs 15bn), and premium positioning in the residential segment, is well-placed to ride the COVID headwinds
|2020-06-30||Sobha Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||226.90||348.00||226.90 (115.60%)||Target met||Buy|
We maintain BUY with reduced TP to Rs 348/sh (vs Rs 377/sh earlier) to account for higher debt. SDL reported operationally weak 4QFY20 with pre-sales of 0.9mn sqft (-20% YoY) as sales in Bengaluru (73% of sales in 4QFY20) fell by 22/20% YoY/QoQ. Pre-sales for FY20 remained flattish at 4.1mn sqft. To add to weak operational performance, SDL evaluated overall portfolio and has recognized 1.93mn sqft of bookings (Rs 12.4bn value and Rs 2bn in collections, ~10% of area under construction) with low/delayed collection as probable cancellation and made it available for sales. Whilst sector as a whole is facing cancellation headwinds, SDL has disclosed same in the results. Silver lining lies in sharp recovery of presales in June near pre-Covid level. We estimate SDL to report industry leading 1QFY21 presales at 60-65% of pre covid levels and collections at ~70%+. SDL with its strong brand positioning, robust unused bank limits (Rs 15bn) and premium positioning in residential segment is well placed to ride COVID headwinds.
|2020-02-06||Sobha Ltd. +||Karvy||384.50||560.00||384.50 (27.23%)||Buy|
|2020-02-04||Sobha Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||402.55||590.00||402.55 (21.53%)||Buy|
SDL has slowed down new launches and focus is on monetizing existing unsold area (14.8mn sqft). Cash flows have been a drag due to last mile completion of Residential/Lease assets and lower quantum of contractual advances. Whilst residential segment is pain for sector, SDL has shifted focus to <Rs 20mn ticket size which continues to do well. Cash flows run rate recovery, pickup in demand and debt reduction shall lead to re-rating. We maintain BUY. Key risks: (1) Weak order inflow in the contracting business, (2) Muted collection momentum and (3) Capex on land bank addition despite having robust development inventory. Sobha (SDL) delivered Rev/EBIDTA beat (7.5/15%) but high interest cost and deferred asset write down (shift to new tax regime) resulted in PAT miss (8.4%). Operating cash flow on 9MFY20 saw sharp fall despite steady collections and pre-sales. Despite this we believe affordable segment recovery will play out and operating cash flows to normalize from 1QFY21E. We maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 590/sh
|2020-02-04||Sobha Ltd. +||Edelweiss||397.05||682.00||397.05 (23.21%)||Buy|
|2019-11-14||Sobha Ltd. +||Karvy||398.40||610.00||398.40 (22.79%)||Buy|
|2019-11-13||Sobha Ltd. +||Edelweiss||398.15||682.00||398.15 (22.87%)||Buy|
|2019-11-12||Sobha Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||427.45||647.00||427.45 (14.45%)||Buy|
SDL has ~16.2mn sqft of unsold area in ongoing projects and expects to add 10.5mn sqft from new projects in the pipeline, over the coming quarters. Whilst SDL has only 0.22 mnsqft of unsold completed inventory worth Rs 1.2bn we remain cautious on land bank addition of Rs 1.8bn during 1HFY20 (given SDL already has a high unsold under construction inventory, 4yrs). Net D/E is expected to reduce to 1.1x by FY20E as the collections from two projects where issue of delay in registration was resolved is expected to see improved collections coupled with 2mn sqft of planned launches in 2HFY20. The contracting business is seeing good growth with an order book of Rs 21.7bn. We maintain BUY. Key risks: (1) Weak order inflow in the contracting business, (2) Dip in collection momentum and (3) Aggressive incremental land bank addition. Sobha delivered a Rev/EBITDA/PAT miss of 34/30/31% respectively on the back of 49% QoQ revenue dip in the Real Estate segment with Contracts and Manufacturing segment holding steady. We maintain BUY with a reduced TP of Rs 647/sh.
|2019-08-16||Sobha Ltd. +||Karvy||451.45||632.00||451.45 (8.36%)||Buy|
Pre-sales Increasing Steadily and Debt Too: During the quarter, the company experienced a 11% YoY growth in pre-salevolume which stood at 1.06 Mn, although pre-sale value remained flattish YoY dueto decrease in realisation by 8%.
|2019-08-14||Sobha Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||485.60||652.00||485.60 (0.74%)||Buy|
SDL has ~17.1mn sqft of unsold area in ongoing projects and expects to add 10.7mn sqft from new projects in the pipeline, over the coming quarters. Whilst SDL has only 0.3 mnsqft of unsold completed inventory worth Rs 1.2bn we remain cautious on land bank addition of Rs 1.5bn during 1QFY20 (when SDL already has high unsold under construction inventory). Net D/E is expected to reduce to 1.1x by FY20E as there were delays in agreement registration in two projects, which resulted in slower collections. The contracting business is seeing good growth with an order book of Rs 22.3bn. We maintain BUY. Key risks: (1) Further deterioration in NBFC liquidity, (2) Weak order inflow in the contracting business, (3) Dip in collection momentum and (4) Any aggressive land bank addition. We maintain BUY post a stable quarter. Our SOTP-based TP is maintained at Rs 652. We have increased our EPS estimate by 2/2.1% for FY20/21E.
|2019-08-14||Sobha Ltd. +||Edelweiss||473.55||482.00||473.55 (3.30%)||Target met||Buy|
|2019-05-29||Sobha Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||549.70||620.00||549.70 (-11.01%)||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Sobha's topline grew strongly by 81.6% YoY to | 1,397.8 crore led by 102.9% YoY growth in revenues from real estate division to | 1,017.3 crore. EBITDA margins contracted 30 bps YoY to 17.4% and were below our estimate of 20.8%. PAT grew robustly by 73.2% YoY to | 113.3 crore (our...
|2019-05-21||Sobha Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||506.70||652.00||506.70 (-3.45%)||Buy|
SDL has ~17.5mn sqft of unsold area in ongoing projects and expects to add 4.2mn sqft from new projects in the pipeline. A well diversified product mix across different regions augurs well for pre-sales recovery. Brand pull will certainly aid pre-sales efforts. Despite capex commitment of Rs 10bn we expect consolidated net D/E to reduce to 0.9x by FY21E (vs. 1.09x now). The contracting business is seeing good growth with an order book of Rs 26bn. We maintain BUY. Key risks: (1) Further deterioration in NBFC liquidity, (2) Higher interest rate, (3) Weak order inflow in the contracting business; and (4) Delay in regulatory approvals. We maintain BUY post a robust quarter. Our SOTP-based TP has increased to Rs 652 (vs Rs 646 earlier). We have increased our EPS estimate by 3/3.3% for FY20/21E.
|2019-05-21||Sobha Ltd. +||Edelweiss||544.85||682.00||544.85 (-10.21%)||Buy|
|2019-04-09||Sobha Ltd. +||Edelweiss||513.75||682.00||513.75 (-4.78%)||Buy|
|2019-02-07||Sobha Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||474.40||646.00||474.40 (3.12%)||Buy|
Maintain BUY with TP of Rs 646/share. Sobha reported Revenue/PAT miss/beat of 10/8%. EBITDA margin expanded by 31bps YoY to 20.2% (-57bps QoQ). In the absence of IND AS 115, revenue/ APAT would have been higher/(lower) by Rs 674/(89)mn respectively.
|2019-02-07||Sobha Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||474.40||510.00||474.40 (3.12%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
Sobha's topline grew 13.9% YoY to | 787.9 crore (our estimate: | 692.4 crore) led by 36.4% YoY growth in revenues from the contractual division to | 310.8 crore (our estimate: | 234.6 crore) The EBITDA margin expanded 31 bps YoY to 20.2% but was below our estimate of 21.3% on account of higher revenue share from the low-margin construction business PAT grew robustly by 30.7% YoY to | 69.8 crore (our estimate: | 65.5 crore) led by strong topline growth...
|2018-11-15||Sobha Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||441.00||490.00||441.00 (10.93%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Sobha's topline grew 1.9% YoY to | 658.7 crore (our estimate: | 681.4 crore) led by 78.0% YoY growth in revenues from contractual division to | 273.2 crore (our estimate: | 181.7 crore) The EBITDA margin expanded 198 bps YoY to 21.3%, in line with our...
|2018-11-13||Sobha Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||451.30||630.00||451.30 (8.40%)||Buy|
Maintain BUY with TP of Rs 630/share. 2QFY19 Revenue came in at Rs 6.6bn (+2% YoY, +10% QoQ, 14% beat). EBITDA margin increased by 198bps YoY to 21.3% (-57bps QoQ). In the absence of IND AS 115, Revenue/ APAT would have been higher by Rs 2.2bn/120mn respectively.
|2018-08-10||Sobha Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||528.05||570.00||528.05 (-7.36%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
Sobha's topline grew 18.6% YoY to | 800.5 crore (our estimate: | 775.5 crore) led by 37.3% YoY growth in revenues from contractual division to | 238.1 crore (our estimate: | 231.2 crore). Further, its real...