be a key monitorable in this quarter. Due to seasonality in case of PSU banks, fees might fall by 11.1% QoQ but grow by 15.1% YoY to Rs394.7bn, which would be partially offset by 5.9% QoQ fall in opex to Rs914bn (+11.2% YoY). Core PPoP may be Rs927bn (-1.5% QoQ/+3.4% YoY) due to weaker NII/fees. Slippage ratio may increase owing to rise in agri slippages (usually in Q1). Banks' PAT is expected to decrease by 5.3% QoQ but increase by 6.2% YoY to Rs673bn....
growth would stem from rising usage of second-hand books and falling realization in the domestic stationery market. On the operating performance front, DOMS IN is likely to witness 210bps compression in EBITDA margin due high-margin syndication revenue, while NELI IN's EBITDA margin is likely to witness a compression of 40bps. Among our coverage universe, DOMS IN...
demand to some extent. However, overall demand remained mixed across regions, mainly due to extreme heatwaves affecting labor availability and demand, southern markets saw the steepest price hike during the quarter,...
The pain for agrochemical focused companies is expected to persist, with margins to remain under pressure in the near term. Chinese companies continue to remain a significant competitive threat to Indian chemical manufacturers. In CY24, chemical production in China grew by 9.1% now constituting 86% of global chemical production, substantially outpacing India's growth of just 1.5%. However, with several anti-dumping investigations currently underway by the DGTR, we expect several domestic chemical companies to benefit once these duties are implemented. Companies with...
(Cu up 3.5%/3.9% & Al up 2.9%/3.9% in May'25/Jun'25). Cables are expected demand, though realizations were impacted by raw material price fluctuations to outpace wires in Q1FY26 due to stronger demand from industrial and infrastructure segments. We estimate Havells/ Polycab /KEI/RR Kabel to see...
of 50% and 30%, respectively. Profitability is set to improve sharply, with margin expansion across the board driven by increasing exposure to high- their strategic focus on higher margin sectors and orders, which should further support margin expansion in the coming quarters. We expect our EMS universe to register sales/EBITDA/PAT growth of 7.5%/73.5%/59.1% YoY in Q1FY26, on the back of robust order execution and margin improvement led by cost rationalization and increased contribution from high-margin segments. We continue our positive view on EMS companies...
We cut our FY27E EPS estimates by 4% as we account for dilution impact resulting from issuance of ~169.5mn fully convertible warrants at a price of Rs132 on a preferential basis to entities forming part of the promoter group. Out of the total preferential proceeds of ~Rs22.4bn, Z IN plans to deploy ~Rs10bn towards building new businesses, ~Rs7.1bn towards inorganic expansion while the balance will be utilized for general & corporate purposes. Post warrant conversion, promoter stake will increase to 18.3% lending better execution comfort on achieving 1) TV viewership share of ~17.5%, 2) adrevenue growth of ~8-10% and 3) EBITDA margin of ~18-20% in FY26E. We...
Oil prices decline, LPG under-recovery improves: A slew of concerns over trade tariffs and global GDP combined with increased supply of 1.2mnbopd resulted in Brent diving to below USD60/bbl for a while and then picking up subsequently to average USD68/bbl during the quarter, a decline from USD75.7/bbl in Q4FY25. Decline in oil prices would result in falling realizations of ~8% QoQ for ONGC and Oil India. Decline in oil prices would aid gross marketing margins on petrol and diesel sequentially from Rs10.4/6.4/lit to Rs12/10/lit respectively. Decline in benchmark LPG prices would also reduce...
Building Material companies under our coverage universe are expected to report single digit revenue growth due to weak demand, along with contraction in margins due to fluctuations in PVC resin prices in plastic pipe companies and tiles, due to oversupply in the domestic market, which has leads pricing pressure. We anticipate moderate volume growth of 5.2% YoY in plastic pipe sector. Tiles and bathware sectors are likely to experience single digit growth expecting demand to pick up in H2FY26. We expect coverage companies to register sales growth of 4.3% YoY, given correction in Finolex Ind revenue and...
JV with UPL to commercialize in FY27; gradual ramp-up expected Aarti Industries demonstrated a volume growth of 17% in FY25, however realizations across key products remained subdued, resulting in lower margins. For FY26, the management has guided double-digit volume growth and expects margins to remain stable. The Energy segment, which contributed 36% to the company's topline in FY25 and is largely comprised of MMA, saw sequential improvement in export volumes, although pricing pressure persists due to...
to ensure non-compete and synergy alignment between AHEL and NewCo, with clear role demarcation - AHEL to focus on core healthcare and NewCo on pharmacy & digital. The demerger was on expected lines and is aimed to unlock value by creating a focused, high-growth platform in the pharmacy and digital healthcare space, which is more consumer centric in nature. The stake sale in HealthCo to Advent and merger with Keimed are a positive step and will lead to an integrated pharmacy distribution business. Scale-up in...
hikes the improvement in margins would either be flat or negligible due to missing operating leverage. We expect median revenue growth to decline by 1.2% QoQ in CC terms & grow 0.5% QoQ in USD terms. Currency volatility continues with major currencies like EUR and GBP having strengthened against USD by 5.9% and 7.6% QoQ, respectively, which will translate into tailwinds to the tune of 60-400bps QoQ in reported terms. Vertical wise, BFSI should continue its growth momentum, while hi-tech and ENU should also support growth for selective names. Manufacturing and...
We conducted channel checks of paint dealers across regions. Our interaction suggests that 1) 1Q has seen decent demand with QoQ improvement, however recovery remains slow 2) demand outlook remains positive led by lower inflation, interest rate cuts, tax reductions and normal monsoons. Asian Paints is experiencing a year-on-year decline in the West and South regions, sales in the East remained flat while north India sales trends show mid-high single digit growth. For Kansai Nerolac, the South market is weak, whereas other regions are performing well....
chronic therapies and opens up many newer therapeutic areas. The deal also adds JBCP's CDMO vertical, offering diversification and growth optionality. The acquisition is likely to be debt-funded requiring Rs 122bn to fund acquisition upfront. We see JBCP current OPM of 2728% to scale to 31-32% (similar to current TRP margins) via sourcing efficiencies, cost rationalization, and pricing actions on keys brands. Historically TRP have managed to integrate...
Given its lean cost structure and partnership with local doctors/ leadership outside Andhra Pradesh (AP) and Telangana, the management remains confident of achieving faster breakeven and +25% OPM across Maharashtra,...
Dealers expect prices to decline further in Jul'25 as the monsoon picks up. However, prices remain strong compared to FY25 and YoY prices are up significantly in Southern & Eastern regions. We interacted with cement dealers across regions in India to assess the demand and pricing scenario in Jun'25. Our discussions indicate a mixed demand environment across markets. While heatwaves continued to impact...
Cement demand remains muted especially in the key Eastern region where demand is struggling over last 5 quarters. Despite regime change in Odisha and upcoming elections in West Bengal, demand remained muted in last few months. East region prices improved in Apr/May along with other regions by ~Rs20/bag and got cut by Rs5 in June due to early monsoon however current...
since Apr'25. We could see a credit upcycle from FY27E suggesting higher than expected loan growth. Sensitivity analysis indicates that if loan growth for FY27E is 210bps higher at 14.7% YoY, aggregate core PAT would be upgraded by 3.6%; sector would re-rate and multiples/TP could increase by 5.0-11.0%. However, in a credit upcycle, valuation discount of other banks to sector leaders like ICICB/HDFCB (6-7% upgrade) would narrow suggesting higher upgrades. From an alpha generation perspective, we would prefer players like...
Accenture's (ACN: NYSE) performance in Q3 came above consensus estimates and at top end of the guidance despite the underlying challenges. The growth was driven by managed services, attributed to FS & Americas, a positive read through for Indian IT companies. However, revenue guidance for Q4 (USD 1717.6 bn) implies softness on account of caution among enterprise clients along with Federal mandates to prioritize spending. We believe the degree of intensity is more noticeable in the former than the latter, as the bookings growth on outsourcing decelerated further (down 10% YoY), while Public Service and Americas are growing at Consol business growth. For the Indian...
On the positive side, higher gold prices may hinder expansion plans for regional and local players due to elevated inventory costs. Investor interest in franchisee operations may also weaken in the short to medium term. Given all the dynamics, we believe TTAN is well-positioned for decent growth in the near to medium term, supported by a higher number of wedding days and its strategic expansion into Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Rising gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty remain a key risk to our hypothesis. We estimate sales of 17%, EBIDTA growth of 25% and PAT growth of 25.6% for...
