Inox Wind Ltd. share price target

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

We attended the INOXGFL Group Vision Day held on 2 Dec’24; takeaways being the INOXGFL group’s foray into renewable power generation for the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector with an envisaged capacity of 3GW by FY27/FY28.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Inox Wind (INOX) has reduced its external debt to zero with fresh infusion from promoters in Q1FY25. Thus, its concerns on debt are now a thing of the past.

Inox Wind with a BUY recommendation and a target price of Rs 185/share, representing a substantial upside potential of 33% from the CMP.

utlook and Valuation: Considering the changing dynamics of renewable energy consumption and governments thrust to auction 10 GW wind capacity every year by 2028, we are bullish on sector and hence have a positive outlook on IWL. At the CMP of INR 90, stock is available at PE multiple of 5.8x its FY2020E EPS of INR 16. We recommend a BUY ..

Back in the Black; Focus on SECI Orders Execution to Drive earnings Post incurring loss for four consecutive quarters led by transition of the wind industry from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) regime to auction route, Inox Wind (INXW) has turned profitable in 1QFY19. Its reported net profit came in at Rs104mn vs. Rs390mn loss in the year-ago quarter, while top-line grew by 306% YoY to Rs4.3bn. Looking ahead, we expect the shift to auctioning route to increase the annual wind market from current 4-5GW to 9GW in FY19-20E. INXW has commenced operations across manufacturing facilities in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh after ~4 quarter gap to focus on execution of SECI orders in FY19, which...

Inox Wind (INXW) has delivered a dismal performance in 4QFY18 with its top-line falling by 80.0% YoY to Rs2.03bn owing to transition of the wind industry from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) regime to auction route. Extending losses as expected since 1QFY17, it incurred Rs556mn net loss in 4QFY18 compared to Rs461mn net loss in 3QFY18 and Rs1,275mn net profit in 4QFY17. Meanwhile, the stock price has corrected by ~50% in last 24 months owing to concerns over working capital and discontinuation of works on wind projects, as the states have stopped signing PPAs under feed-in-tariff regime. Looking ahead, we expect the shift to auctioning route would increase the annual wind market from current 4-5GW to 9GW in FY19-20E. INXW has commenced...

INXW's incurred Rs202mn EBITDA loss in 2QFY18 vs. Rs1,011mn EBITDA profit in 2QFY17 owing to lower commissioning. In line with our estimates, it incurred Rs468mn loss vs. Rs564mn profit in 2QFY17. Lower revenue, higher interest and depreciation cost on capacity addition were the key disappointments. INXW commissioned 40MW in 2QFY18 taking 1HFY18 commissioning to 86MW. INXW's installation market share stood at 20%. Notably, INXW's net receivables reduced...

Major Beneficiary of Auctioning Regime; Maintain BUY Inox Wind (INXW) has incurred Rs 390mn net loss in 1QFY18 vs. our estimates of Rs688 mn loss. Top-line fell by 75% YoY to Rs10.5bn, broadly in line with our estimate of Rs10.9bn. Notably, we...

Inox wind reported subdued revenue performance, which was down by 75.6% YoY to INR 1059.9 mn against our estimates of ~INR 2875 mn. The growth was hampered due to no execution. The top line growth was supported by 46MW of commissioning. The operational performance was remained subdued primarily owing to lower than anticipated top-line performance. There is operational loss of INR 133.2mn against our estimates of INR 199mn. Subdued operational performance coupled with higher interest cost (+9.6% YoY) impacted bottom-line performance, which was in loss...

Inox Wind (IWL) reported yet another weak quarter as execution got impacted due to demonetisation. ~200MW of WTGs were manufactured but could not be commissioned, which led to miss in estimates for the quarter. With improvement in execution, the mgmt expects 4QFY17E to be a disproportionately strong quarter.

ff Higher Input & EPC Cost Drags Operating Margins: Though INXW's EBITDA rose by 13% YoY to Rs18.4bn, EBITDA margin declined 127bps YoY to 15.9% due to higher raw material and EPC cost. Further, owing to higher interest cost on the back of increase in receivables days and higher depreciation cost, INXW's...

IWL, one of the largest integrated wind power solution providers in India, manufactures wind turbine generators and provides ovides complete turnkey solutions such as supply of WTG, land acquisition, infrastructure development, power...

Inox Winds (IWL) 2QFY17 results were below our estimates as the company focused on correcting the supply mismatches to reduce its working capital cycle. While collections have improved (~Rs 8bn vs. ~Rs 4bn QoQ), billings have also gone up leading to flat receivables (Rs 24bn).

Our optimism on wind power in India remains intact given the government push and attractive IRRs for developers (at closer to grid parity tariffs). Hybrid policy (wind solar) and competitive bids provide tailwinds to sector volumes from FY18E onwards. This, coupled with strong FCF generation, (Rs 6bn for FY17E) and high RoE (~25%) makes a strong investment case. Reiterate BUY with a TP of Rs 475/share (10x FY18E EV/EBITDA).

Inox Wind Ltd’s (IWL) 1QFY17 results were below our estimates both in terms of revenue (adverse mix) and extended net working capital (180 days vs. 82 days as on Mar-16). The management clarified that mismatch in supply of individual parts (blades, towers, nacelles & hubs) had led to the buildup of receivables so far. To correct the same, it focused only on manufacturing the balance part of supplies in 1QFY17 leading to lower revenues/ utilisation. With this anomaly getting cleared now, it expects a substantial pick up in volumes and reduction in working capital by end of 1HFY17. Gradual improvement in working capital (over FY17) should enable it to be a net cash company by FY17-end.

Notwithstanding short term ups and downs, long term visibility on WTG volumes remain high given the expected policy on repowering and hybrid model (wind + solar). A bid based tender for 1GW is expected to open in the next 2 months providing further visibility on FY17E WTG volumes. Policy thrust coupled with technical advancements would continue to drive wind sector and IWL would be a key beneficiary of the same. Retain BUY with a TP of Rs 475/sh (10x FY18E EV/ EBITDA).

Top takeaways from Q1FY17 :  Inox Wind’s recurring PAT (Rs 103mn,  ?85% yoy) was materially below our and consensus estimates as lower than expected execution led to a negative operating leverage coupled with high interest costs on account of increased working capital. In 1Q Inox focused on clearing the backlog of production of relatively lower ASP components such as blades and towers while going slow in producing nacelles in order to synchronise component supply going ahead. This led to lower revenues. In addition, due to lack of clarity on tariff in the state of Gujarat clients withheld commissioning, which has subsequently picked up as the state announced its multiyear tariff only in August.

Outlook and Valuation: Based on the weak 1Q performance we cut our FY17/18 earnings estimates by 25% and 19% respectively. We downgrade our rating on the stock to Neutral (from Buy) and cut our price target to Rs 200 (Rs 360 earlier). The company has disappointed investor expectations for the past three quarters on execution, margins and working capital. Consequently, the stock has de?rated and the price has declined 50% in the past 12 months. For the stock to re?rate we believe Inox will have to deliver on reducing its net working capital (53% of TTM sales in 1QFY17) to offset the negatives of slowing industry growth due to a policy cliff in FY18. Since ~50% of FY17 sales will be generated from Gujarat based sites, which now have improved visibility on tariffs, we believe that Inox has a fair chance to reduce its working capital and this refrains us from downgrading the stock to Sell.