Emkay Broker Research reports

RBL has initiated a clean-up act in 3Q amid rising delinquencies in the MFI portfolio due to imposition of MFIN guardrails, in addition to elevated, though moderating, stress in the card portfolio due to breakup from BAF, leading to higher provisions and thus PBT loss at Rs1.9bn.

Metro’s Q3 results were largely inline – Revenue growth inched up to doubledigits (11%), aided by recovery in revenue per sqft (vs declining trend), ~9% network expansion, and faster ~37% growth in the e-com channel (~11% of sales). With EOSS and higher number of weddings, Metro expects to sustain the improving growth trajectory in Q4.

LTIM reported a mixed performance in Q3FY25; revenue growth of 1.8% QoQ CC was in line with our estimate, while EBITM of 13.8% fell slightly short of our expectations.

CEAT recorded accelerated revenue growth of 11% in Q3FY25 (~7.9%/1.5% volume /realization growth) with EBITDA ~5% above Consensus’, despite the ~60bps QoQ margin decline to 10.3% amid the ~1% higher RM.

Axis Bank continues to report weak credit growth, which has now slipped to 9% YoY; this, along with margin contraction (of 6bps QoQ) and higher retail slippages (net at Rs29bn vs Rs22bn in 2Q) led to elevated provisions.

Infosys reported better than expected revenue growth in Q3. Revenue grew 1.7% QoQ CC, partly aided by increase in pass-through revenue and incremental contribution (20bps) from the in-tech acquisition. EBITM expanded by 20bps to 21.3%, in line with expectation.

HDFCLIFE reported an impressive performance in 9MFY25, with APE 1.6% above our estimate at Rs102.9bn, and VNB margin at 25.1% above our estimate of 24.5% resulting in a 4.2% beat on VNB at Rs25.9bn.

We upgrade Paytm to BUY from Add with revised DCF-based TP of Rs1,050 (earlier Rs750), implying FY27E EV/Op Rev at 4.5x and P/BV at 4.2x. Recent NPCI approval (Oct-24) released a major regulatory overhang, which should help it rebuild the MTU base in the next 12-18M and thus cross-sell retail financial products like loans (for eg: HL), insurance, and wealth products, thereby improving revenue per user.

We initiate coverage on Dixon Technologies (Dixon) with BUY and DCF-based TP of Rs20,000 (implied Dec-26E EV/EBITDA of ~41x). With management style centered around promoting entrepreneurship and strong execution within the organization, and by closely aligning itself with India’s global manufacturing hub ambition in consumer electronics, Dixon has, over time, successfully gained leadership across verticals and continuously expanded into adjacencies.

Novelis has indicated that its Q3FY25 EBITDA could range at USD360-370mn (-21% QoQ; -14% vs Emkay). Q3 shipments are expected to range at 900-910kt – slightly lower than our estimate of 913kt, and 945kt shipments in Q2