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Data on aggregate sectoral institutional flows activity during the market turmoil in Mar’23 indicates that FIIs were buying risk (high beta and value stocks) in the form of stocks related to cyclical and capital-intensive sectors. Aggregate MF funds bought across sectors in Mar’23 with bulk of the buying again focused on high-beta and capital-intensive sectors except IT services.
The RBI has raised policy repo rate six times totalling 250 bps in less than a year since May’22 before announcing a pause in the latest policy review. Although the withdrawal of accommodation stance and rate hike cycle in the last one year remains sharpest in the past decade and a half. Indian banks have witnessed and withstood enough hawkish rate scenarios and can therefore navigate the current situation well.
The Indian economy has seen a mixed bag of developments. While inflation eased, unemployment rose. Additionally, foreign institutional investment fell on an MoM basis while mutual funds recorded inflows in March. Crude prices dropped even as domestic consumption rose.
The Asian markets are trading mixed as China's GDP grew by 4.5% in Q1CY23, beating the estimates of a 4% growth. Nikkei is trading higher by 0.59%,whileHang Seng is trading lower by 0.55% and Shanghai is trading lower by 0.05%.
As INFY has high exposure to the digital transformation agenda of clients, which is seeing a delay in decision making, it led to a sharp revenue drawdown in Q4FY23.
In a decade-long eventful journey, microfinance lenders are very close to an end of the longest asset quality cycle (FY17-22) – starting from demonetisation in FY17, floods, NBFC crisis in FY18-19, and lastly covid in FY21-22.
We estimate paint industry volumes to have grown 8-10% YoY in Q4FY23. We reckon revenue growth = volume growth (interplay of price hikes and discounts). There has been a likely deterioration in revenue mix due to: (i) higher revenue from projects business and industrial paints, and (ii) down-trading.
