The downward revision in growth and inflation trajectory prompted MPC members to reduce rates in April. Stance was maintained given the uncertain growth and inflation outlook. The deviation from RBI's growth and inflation trajectory will decide the future course of policy rates. The recent increase in oil prices confounds the outlook. Benign food inflation is likely to continue led by cereal inflation as vegetable prices increase. We believe muted growth and dovish...

According to National Bulk Handling Corporation (NBHC), sowing of Rabi crops in AY19 is expected to be much lower than previous estimates. This is attributable to below normal monsoon (91% of LPA) and was further intensified by deficient winter rains. Thereby the production of wheat,...

Asian markets are trading lower tracking soft cues from Wall Street overnight. Nikkei is trading lower by 0.45%, Hangseng is trading lower by 0.27% and Shanghai is trading lower by 0.07%. Indian indices are expected to open on a flat note and focus will be on key quarterly earnings in the day ahead.

1. Established over 90 years back in 1922, SHK is one the largest India fragrance and flavor companies. 2. SHK possess state of the art manufacturing facilities for both domestic and global markets. The company manufactures and markets over 9700 products to over 4100 customers. 3. SHK's fragrance products and ingredients are used by FMCG companies in personal care, fabric...

Most demand indicators EXIM trade, cargo volume at major ports and container rail volume remained tepid in Mar'19, pointing to sluggish industrial activity and weak underlying demand in the economy. Total EXIM trade in US$ terms grew at a moderate 5% YoY, albeit an improvement over the past few months, while cargo volumes at major ports/container rail volumes grew at 4%/5% YoY. These indicators were subdued for Q4FY19 too, suggesting weak demand may weigh on the quarterly performance of logistics companies....

India's WPI rose to 3.2% in Mar'19 from 2.9% in Feb'19 led by higher international oil prices which drove fuel and power inflation to 5.4% in Mar'19 (2.2% in Feb'19). Food inflation too rose by 3.9% in Mar'19 (3.3% in Feb'19) led by veggie prices. However, manufactured inflation softened to 2.2% in Mar'19 (2.3% in Feb'19). WPI is likely to average at 3% in FY20 on the back of favourable base effect for crude prices. India's trade deficit widened to US$ 10.9bn in Mar'19 (US$ 9.6bn in Feb'19) as gold and oil imports increased. Trade deficit for FY19 too...

J M Financial has become a full-fledged financial service conglomerate offering services across the spectrum including lending services, asset management, ARC business, investment banking, wealth management, broking and securities business and private equity. Over the years, its various business segments have achieved decent size and scale and are higher profitable as well. For e.g. mortgage lending business has ROA/ROE of 4.3%/17.4%, AMC's ROE 23%, ARC's IRR is 34%. Management approach to grow assets conservatively but good quality assets has worked well for them. Despite NBFC crisis which has been one of the toughest, asset quality of company has held up well. In nutshell, business model has become more resilient and less volatile and less dependent on uncertain securities business. It is present across all high-growth and important business lines where the size of opportunity is big. More importantly, management bandwidth is strong. Although, recently, Q3FY19 performance has been marred by higher borrowing cost, we are optimistic that growth will resume in FY20 and higher...

Polycab India Ltd (Polycab) is one of the leading manufacturers of Cables & Wires, having ~18% market share of the organised industry. Polycab has a diverse range of wires and cables (contributes ~87% of revenue as of 9MFY19) and their key products are power and control cables, instrumentation cables, solar cables, building wires and flexible cables. Additionally, company manufactures and sells FMEG (Fast moving electrical goods-LED, Fans, Switch gears & solar products contributing ~8% of overall revenues. Further, Polycab undertakes EPC...

Asian markets are trading higher as investor's watch-out for US Japan trade talks amid comments from Governer of Bank of Japan that increasing trade protectionism poses risk to global economic growth outlook. Nikkei is trading higher by 0.18%, Hangseng is trading higher by 0.19% and Shanghai is tr..

We expect Q4FY19 to be a mixed quarter for our logistics coverage. Industry interactions and key indicators suggest demand for logistics services remained soft in Q4 we thus expect a muted operating performance from traditional road transport and container rail players, though the consumer-focused 3PL and express segments are likely to do well. Amongst companies, AGLL/ TCIEXP are forecast to post a strong operating performance (23%/21% YoY),...

WPI inflation increased to 3.2% in Mar'19 from 2.9% in Feb'19 driven by higher international oil prices which drove fuel and power inflation to 5.4% in Mar'19 (2.2% in Feb'19). Food inflation too rose to 3.9% in Mar'19 (3.3% in Feb'19) led by 28.1% jump in veggie prices. However, manufactured inflation softened a bit to 2.2% in Mar'19 (2.3% in Feb'19). With moderation in cereals inflation and a favourable base effect for international oil prices (average of US$ 75/bbl in H1FY19), WPI inflation is likely to average at 3% in FY20 versus 4.3% in FY19. Veggie prices drive food inflation higher: WPI food inflation rose to a 16-month...

Infosys's Mar'18 quarter performance was mixed bag with inline revenue, healthy deal wins and subpar operating margins. Combination of soft revenue growth guidance (of 7.5 to 9.5% YoY cc growth) with lower reset of EBIT margin range (to 21-23%) makes FY20 outlook subdued. Tight US talent market and elevated attrition will limit efforts to recoup profitability. We downgrade recommendation a notch to ADD (V/s BUY earlier) even as ongoing buyback to support stock price in interim. Click here for the full report....

CPI Inflation Inches Up To 2.86%; IIP Growth Plunges To 0.1% Consumer Price Index or CPI inflation in March 2019 stood at 2.86%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.80% but below our estimate of 3.09%. It moved up from 2.56% in the previous month. The softer-than-expected reading was mainly on account of the fact that the rise in vegetable prices was lower than anticipated, while core inflation was muted. Food and beverage inflation rose 0.7%YoY, after a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Core inflation also stood at 5%YoY in March 2019, below our expectation of 5.15%. CPI inflation in FY19 averaged 3.4%, the lowest level in more than a decade, and lower than...

Retail inflation for March 2019 printed at 2.86% YoY vs. 2.57% YoY in February and 4.28% in the same month last year. Although a slight pickup in food and fuel prices pushed up headline reading to a fivemonth high, core inflation witnessed a sharp decline to 5.04% YoY vs....

Despite relatively encouraging global data, IMF reiterated its concerns regarding global economic slowdown and downgraded its growth forecast for CY19 to 3.3% from 3.5% earlier. Similar concerns were raised in both FOMC minutes and ECB rate decision. Better than expected exports from China led to higher global yields and appreciation bias for EM currencies. Indian 10Y yield too rose as oil prices inched up. However, yields are unlikely to go up as...

India' CPI rose to a 5-month high of 2.9% in Mar'19 while IIP fell to a 20month low of 0.1% in Feb'19. The increase in inflation is attributable to food which accelerated to 0.3% in Mar'19 from (-) 0.7% in Feb'19 led by vegetable prices. Core moderated to 5% driven by a broad-based decline. This implies RBI is likely to reduce policy rates further to spur growth. Rise in oil prices and below normal monsoon remains a risk. India's forex reserves rose to 11-month high at US$ 414bn in the week ending 5 Apr 2019. On a weekly basis, forex reserves rose by US$ 1.9bn vs an increase of US$ 5.2bn. In CYTD19, forex reserves have increased by...

Asian markets are trading in the green due to stronger than expected data from China on Friday with investors awaiting further economic data releases in the week. Nikkei is trading lower by 0.08%, Hangseng is trading higher by 0.45% and Shanghai is trading higher by 0.52%. Indian indices are expecte

Equity Mutual Funds (including ELSS) reported a rebound in inflows to the tune of Rs 11,756 cr in March 2019 Net inflows into equity mutual funds jumped by as much as 130% from a net inflow of Rs 5,122 cr. in February 2019 Balanced funds faced a higher net outflow of Rs 3,181 cr. in March 2019, versus an outflow of Rs 1,077 cr. in the month prior. Despite the strong inflows into mutual funds, as per SEBI data, Mutual Funds were net sellers of stocks, selling as much as Rs 6,348 cr. in March 2019, as compared to a buying of Rs 7,020 cr. reported in February 2019. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Indian stocks for the first time since July 2016....