Asian markets were trading higher tracking cues from Wall Street overnight on the back of positive developments on the U.S.-China trade front. Nikkei is trading lower by 1.66%, Hangseng is trading higher by 2.37% and Shanghai is trading higher by 1.32%. Indian indices are expected to open in the gre

Asian markets were trading mixed tracking cues from Wall Street overnight while focus remains on upcoming Fed Reserve Meeting. Nikkei is trading lower by 0.27%, Hangseng is trading higher by 0.70% and Shanghai is trading higher by 0.02%. Indian indices are expected to open in the green and focus wi

WPI inflation fell to near 2-year low of 2.5% in May'19 from 3.1% in Apr'19 led by dip in fuel and power (1% in May'19 from 3.8% in Apr'19) and manufactured inflation (1.3% in May'19 from 1.7% in Apr'19). However, food inflation rose to 5.1% in May'19 (4.9% in Apr'19). With lower international oil prices, now at US$ 60/ bbl and benign core CPI inflation we expect RBI to cut Repo rate by...

Oil prices fell by 2% in the week after EIA lowered its demand forecast for CY19 and Chinese imports, industrial production and investment remain under pressure. However, global equity markets went up ahead of US Fed's meeting. US yields were flat ahead of the meeting but DXY appreciated as US retail sales and production surprised positively. A weak global backdrop helped India's WPI to fall to a 22-month low of 2.45%. This along with RBI's OMO...

India has imposed higher tariffs on 28 US imports (over US$ 200mn) from Jun 16. These include important US export items to India such as apples, almonds and walnuts. On Jun 5, US withdrew tariff concessions to India under the GSP scheme which allowed duty-free exports of up to US$ 5.6bn to the US. India's imports from US were US$ 35bn in FY19. Retail sales in the US rose by 0.5% in May'19 (est. 0.6%) vs 0.3% in Apr'19 on MoM basis. This was driven by pickup in motor vehicle sales reflecting slight signs of improvement in consumption demand. In a separate print, US...

Asian markets were trading higher as investors await the outcome of Fed reserve meeting during the week. Nikkei is trading higher by 0.11%, Hangseng is trading higher by 1.10% and Shanghai is trading higher by 0.26%. Indian indices are expected to open on a flat note and focus will remain on global

WPI inflation fell to near 2-year low of 2.5% in May'19 from 3.1% in Apr'19 led by dip in fuel and power (1% in May'19 from 3.8% in Apr'19) and manufactured inflation (1.3% in May'19 from 1.7% in Apr'19). However, food inflation rose to 5.1% in May'19 (4.9% in Apr'19). With lower international oil prices, now at US$ 60/ bbl and benign core CPI inflation we expect RBI to...

As per news reports, government may rollover Rs 626bn in subsidies payment to FY21, in order to stick to the 3.4% fiscal deficit target in FY20. In FY20 interim budget, fertilizer subsidy was kept at Rs 750bn and fuel subsidy at Rs 375bn. However, fertilizer companies have reported Rs 1.1tn payment dues from the government, while fuel companies (IOC, BP & HP) report Rs 631bn is pending in dues, together implying a gap of Rs 626bn. Industrial production in the Euro Area fell for the 2nd straight month in Apr'19 by (-) 0.5% vs (-) 0.4% in Mar'19, on a MoM basis. This was led by...

Asian markets were trading mixed tracking cues from Wall Street overnight amid volatile oil prices. Nikkei is trading higher by 0.26%, Hangseng is trading lower by 0.35% and Shanghai is trading higher by 0.03%. Indian indices are expected to open lower while focus will remain on domestic data relea

Uncertainty around demand and focus on inventory liquidation of last year had deferred price hikes in RACs, but with strong demand uptick, brands have taken selective price hikes though ASPs will still be lower than last year due to sustained competitive intensity. Our channel checks and industry interactions suggest that industry can clock ~15% volume growth in Q1FY20E on a favorable base from last year. Stable commodity prices...

Headline CPI inflation for May 2019 printed at 3.05% YoY vs. revised 2.99% YoY in April and 4.87% in the same month last year. The rise was driven by the continued uptick in food inflation contributed by...

Domestic consumption continues to moderate. Private services activity too has decelerated with lower PMI, CV sales, tourist arrivals and rail freight. A normal monsoon and rural stimulus (PM-KISAN) will favour a pick-up in domestic demand in H2. With Centre looking at maintaining its fiscal deficit at 3.4%, states may have to step-up spending in FY20. The recent decline in oil prices, change in RBI's stance to accommodative and lower global yields is positive for interest rates. For transmission, liquidity in the banking system has to increase and will improve only gradually....

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for May 2019 stood at 3.05% in line with Bloomberg teresa.john@nirmalbang.com consensus estimate, but a tad below our estimate of 3.10%. It inched up from a revised +91 22 6273 8114 2.99% (2.92% earlier) in the previous month. Food and beverage inflation stood at 1.95%, up from 1.4% last month. Core inflation moderated to 4.26% from 4.53% earlier and was slightly below our estimate of 4.34%. The sequential increase in core services inflation was muted suggesting relatively weak demand conditions. However, the Index of Industrial production (IIP) rose 3.4% YoY in April 2019, above Bloomberg consensus estimate of 0.6% and our own estimate of 0.8%. The surprise rise came from better than expected manufacturing...

India's CPI inflation rose to a 7-month high of 3.05% in May'19 led by higher food inflation. IIP growth also recovered to a 6-month high at 3.4% in Apr'19. Core inflation eased to 4.2% driven by across the board decline. While CPI has risen for 4-months now, it is still below RBI's target. With oil prices currently at US$ 60/bbl, RBI has room to cut rates further. Progress of monsoon and Budget will however dictate the timing of the rate cut. UNCTAD's latest report highlighted that investment climate remained gloomier with global FDI flows falling for the 3rd consecutive year by 13% to...

Asian markets were trading lower tracking soft cues from Wall Street overnight amid decline in oil prices on an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories. Nikkei is trading lower by 0.83%, Hangseng is trading lower by 1.73% and Shanghai is trading lower by 0.75%. Indian indices are expected to

Equity Mutual Funds (including ELSS) reported a marginal rise in inflows in May 2019, bringing in Rs 4,968 crore over the month, as compared to an inflow of Rs 4,229 crore in April 2019. Inflows through SIPs continued to hover over the Rs 8,000 cr mark, at Rs 8,183 cr in May 2019 versus Rs 8,238 cr in April. Aggressive Hybrid Funds and other equity-oriented hybrid schemes, continued to report an outflow, for the fifth consecutive month. As per SEBI data, Mutual Funds turned net buyers of stocks after two consecutive months of selling. Mutual Funds bought Rs 5,164 cr worth of stocks in May 2019, versus a selling of Rs 4,920 cr in April 2019. Equity Mutual Fund exposure to cash as a category fell to around Rs 39,772 cr in May 2019 from about Rs 42,000 cr in April 2019. On calculating the imputed inflows* into different market cap categories, we find that fund houses were buying Large-cap^ stocks....

Equity Mutual Funds (including ELSS) reported a marginal rise in inflows in May 2019, bringing in Rs 4,968 crore over the month, as compared to an inflow of Rs 4,229 crore in April 2019. Inflows through SIPs continued to hover over the Rs 8,000 cr mark, at Rs 8,183 cr in May 2019 versus Rs 8,238 cr in April. Aggressive Hybrid Funds and other equity-oriented hybrid schemes, continued to report an outflow, for the fifth consecutive month. As per SEBI data, Mutual Funds turned net buyers of stocks after two consecutive months of selling. Mutual Funds bought Rs 5,164 cr worth of stocks in May 2019, versus a selling of Rs 4,920 cr in April 2019. Equity Mutual Fund exposure to cash as a category fell to around Rs 39,772 cr in May 2019 from about Rs 42,000 cr in April 2019. On calculating the imputed inflows* into different market cap categories, we find that fund houses were buying Large-cap^ stocks....

Domestic consumption continues to moderate. Private services activity too has decelerated with lower PMI, CV sales, tourist arrivals and rail freight. A normal monsoon and rural stimulus (PM-KISAN) will favour a pick-up in domestic demand in H2. With Centre looking at maintaining its fiscal deficit at 3.4%, states may have to step-up spending in FY20. The recent decline in oil prices, change in RBI's stance to accommodative and lower global yields is positive for interest rates. For transmission, liquidity in the banking system has to increase and will improve only gradually....

RBI made net purchase of US$ 4.9bn in the spot market in Apr'19 vs US$ 9.4bn in Mar'19. In the forwards market, RBI sold US$ 4.7bn in Apr'19, lower compared with sale of US$ 9.4bn in Mar'19. RBI's net outstanding forward sales widened to US$ 18.5bn from US$ 13.8bn in Mar'19. Producer prices in the US moderated marginally and grew by 0.1% in May'19 vs 0.2% in Apr'19, on MoM basis. On a YoY basis as well, PPI edged down to 1.8% in May'19 vs 2.2% in Apr'19 on account of falling energy prices. Muted inflation print in the past few months have refrained Fed from...

We hosted Mr. Prashant Soni Partner and Head of Greylink, a wholly owned subsidiary of Blackbuck. The company operates an online freight marketplace connecting manufacturers and truckers, and is reshaping the trucking infrastructure in India. Currently, it offers intercity, long-haul FTL transportation (>850 kms) services. Although Blackbuck has rapidly gained scale and emerged as one of the leading logistics start-ups in India, it still has large growth potential in a ~U$ 100bn FTL industry. Following are the key takeaways from the interaction....