Retail Research

MARKET SNAPSHOT

END OF DAY SUMMARY

Asian markets are trading in the green following a major breakthrough in the Middle East conflict. Sentiment turned positive after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The Nikkei, Shanghai, and Hang Seng are trading higher by 4.9%, 1.3%, and 2.5%, respectively.

Our Top Earnings Plays: Auto OEMs: TVS Motors, Eicher Motors, (M&M - Non-Coverage) Auto Ancillary: Sansera Engineering Ltd, Minda Corporation.

Banks: Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, Federal Bank, Ujjivan SFB, AU SFB NBFCs: Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Inv & Fin., Can Fin Homes

Retail Research

Upstream earnings to shine due to high crude prices OMC's/CGD's earnings expected to remain under pressure Q4FY26 performance is expected to remain subdued due to West Asia disruptions. While aggregate sales are likely to grow ~7.0% QoQ, EBITDA and PAT are expected to decline by ~10.5% and ~17.6% QoQ, respectively. Upstream companies are the biggest beneficiary of higher crude prices with +19.7% QoQ EBITDA growth. Standalone refiners are expected to benefit from stronger crack spreads and hence MRPL EBITDA is expected to rise by ~13.6% QoQ. In contrast, OMCs, CGDs, and gas utilities are...

Retail Research

We expect a healthy Q4FY26 performance across our solar equipment manufacturing coverage, supported by (1) healthy execution driven by continued solar project commissioning, (2) improving domestic opportunity led by ALMM-led demand support, (3) healthy order book replenishment backed by steady order inflows, and (4) ongoing backward integration initiatives to aid margin profile. For Premier, we expect modest revenue growth of 36.2% YoY, driven by healthy order execution and ramp-up in module production. For Waaree, we forecast robust revenue growth of 83.2% YoY with a 3.0% QoQ decline, with EBITDA margins at 23.0% (-260bps QoQ), contracting...

Power sector performance in Q4FY26 is expected to be mixed, with underlying demand showing limited traction. Peak demand grew by ~2% YoY to 245GW; energy consumption also rose by ~2% YoY to 425BU. Power prices continued to moderate, with DAM prices declining ~12% YoY to INR3.9/kWh, led by higher renewable generation and comfortable coal availability, keeping supply conditions benign. Operational performance remained mixed across playersNTPC reported ~4% YoY decline in generation with PLF moderating to 65% (-400 bps YoY), while Tata Power saw a sharp decline in generation due to disruptions at Mundra. CESC reported stable...

MARKET SNAPSHOT

DELHIVER IN's express volumes to be at 293mn. TCIEXP IN to report mid-single digit growth in volumes while MAHLOG IN's EBITDA loss in B2B express division is expected to compress to Rs43mn. For our coverage universe, we expect revenue growth of 19.1% YoY in 4QFY26E. B2C parcel volumes for DELHIVER IN typically witness a sequential dip in 4Q after having peaked in 3Q due to festivities. However, we expect DELHIVER IN to buck this trend and report B2C parcel volumes of 293mn (flat sequentially) in 4QFY26E. MAHLOG IN...

Education companies under our coverage are expected to report a modest 14.6% YoY growth in topline amid rising export headwinds given the ongoing geo-political tensions in West Asia. DOMS IN is likely to report a 17.0% YoY growth in topline led by stationary business. On the other hand, FLAIR IN is expected to report topline growth of 10.6% YoY (lowest in last 5 quarters) led by weak exports. Initial signs of margin pressure is also evident amid rising crude prices as DOMS IN is expected to report an EBITDA margin of 16.3% (down 100bps YoY). Though FLAIR IN's EBITDA margin is expected to increase 140bps YoY; the base was low amid inferior product mix and on...

Order inflows in the infrastructure sector saw a modest pickup in Q4FY26, rising to INR565bn (vs. INR548bn in Q3), led by strong performance from select road EPC players such as Ceigall and KNR, while PNC Infratech and HG Infra lagged their fullyear targets. Building EPC remained steady with Ahluwalia Contracts broadly meeting expectations, whereas diversified players like NCC and Dilip Buildcon drove overall inflow, partly offset by weak ordering at Afcons. Despite this, financial performance for Q4FY26 is expected to remain soft, with revenue growing ~0.7% YoY across the coverage universe. While companies like PNC and PSP Projects are likely to deliver...

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Retail Research

MARKET SNAPSHOT