Page Industries Ltd. share price target

With a 7% downside from the CMP, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

Page Industries (PAGE) had underwhelming growth in revenue (+7% YoY) and volume (5% YoY) amidst demand challenges, leading to sequential deceleration, while channel inventory has largely normalised.

Page Industries (PAGE) reported 7% YoY sales growth in 3QFY25 (est. 10%; 11% in 2QFY25), with 5% volume growth (est. 6%; 7% in 2QFY25) to 58m units.

PAG’s Q3 EBITDA was 7-19% ahead of street/our estimates, largely led by 250- 370bps better margin, as topline was 1-5% lower. Revenue growth moderated to 7% (vs 11% in Q2) due to muted demand environment.

PAGE Industries (PAGE) is well-positioned to capitalize on India's growing innerwear (9% of the apparel industry) and athleisure markets, aided by favorable macroeconomic trends such as rising incomes, urbanization, and a young population.

With a 1% downside from the CMP, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

Page’s Q2 figures exceeded our estimates and consensus. The q/q better demand was aided by festivals at quarter-end, and a gradual rural recovery.

Page Industries (PAGE) reported sales growth of 11% in 2QFY25 (est. 7%; 4% in 1Q), with healthy 7% YoY volume growth (est. 3.5%; 3% in 1Q) to 55m.

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock

Page Industries (PAGE) continued to experience weakened growth due to
subdued industry demand and high channel inventory levels. Revenue was
up 3% YoY to INR10.0b (est. INR10.6b) in 4QFY24; recovery was visible in
innerwear and athleisure-wear. Volume rose 6% YoY to 45.3m pieces.

According to our interaction with the management, the demand
pressures appear to be stabilizing, and there should be a gradual
recovery. However, the timing of full recovery remains uncertain,
especially in normalizing the inventory levels. Industry demand is
crucial during April to June as it will assist in reducing the high
inventory levels.

Recommendation: With a 6% downside from the CMP, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

With a 3% downside from the CMP, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

Recommendation: With a 1% upside from the CMP, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

PAGE Industries’ (PAGE) revenue performance has been decent (-8% YoY / 8% 5Y CAGR). Decline in value growth has been lower than that in volume growth (-11%) due to price hike taken during Aug’22 and premiumisation benefits. Overall recovery has been slower than expected due to general demand slowdown and intensifying of competition from peers (led by excess inventory).

In this report, we take stock of Page Industries’ (PAGE) last 5-year performance (compared to previous 5 years) vs peers (in the listed space). Key observations: (1) Innerwear industry underperformed NIFTY 50 during FY18-23 due to relative slowdown in the underlying business.