Lupin Ltd. share price target

USFDA Open Form 483 (Mar'16) for Goa unit: Management expects clarity from the US FDA over next few months. The Company has already given monthly update to the US drug regulator. LPC has already received Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) for first set of observations (against Form 483 issued in July 2015 to its Goa facility) and also tentative approval from the US FDA. Though the issues are not seemingly contentious enough which...

After a 20-25% fall from its peak, we believe most of the negatives are priced in for LPC and present a great opportunity to BUY this stock at attractive valuations (under 20x on FY18E EPS).

Lupin Limited headquartered in Mumbai is Indias seventh largest Pharmaceutical Company in terms of market capitalization and the fifth largest company in the United States by prescription led market share. The advent of the 21st century ushered the need for strong vision and solid values in the pharmaceutical industry. Following the path of conventional economics where demand creates supply, Lupin has emerged as the best fit with a vision to excel...

For 4QFY2016, Lupin posted results above our expectations. Sales came in at Rs4,091cr (V/s Rs3,665cr expected), up 34.0% yoy. Sales growth was driven by Formulations (Rs3,807.5cr) which rose by 38.6% yoy, while API (Rs283.8cr) witnessed a dip of 7.7% yoy. On the operating front, the EBDITA margin came in at 31.2% V/s 25.1% in 4QFY2015 and..

9 Exclusivity in gGlumetza and price spike in gFortamet resulted in +ve surprise of US$85mninUSsales(to$325mn).Thus17%salesoutperformancetoourestimates. 9 450bpspositivesurpriseintheoperatingmarginof32.7%(vs.estimated28.0%)primary...

Background: Amongst the largest Pharma companies in domestic market with Net Sales of INR 112.9bn with a strong brand portfolio. R&D; cost is in excess of 8% of Sales. Exports account for 73% with Developed Markets (DM) at 58% and EM at 15%. Sales Mix: API - 10%, Domestic Formulations - 25%, DM Formulations - 56%, EM Formulations - 9%. Historically strong in anti-TB segment, has built expertise in fermentation based products and segments like...

4Q numbers came in above expectation: Lupin's 4QFY16 revenue grew 37% YoY to INR41.8b (11% beat) primarily due to strong beat in US. EBITDA improved 79%YoY to INR13.7b with EBITDA margins at 32.7% v/s 25% in 4QFY15 (despite high R&D;...

Lupin has corrected by ~16% over the last one month due to worries on 483 (regulatory) observations by USFDA on Mandideep and Goa facilities and smaller-than-expected Glumetza pricing and revenues. Management has clarified that 483 observations on Mandideep are benign and unlikely to materially impact the business.

Mandideep based API & Formulations facility received 4 form 483 observations post inspection by US FDA in Feb-16. One observation is related to use of non-confirming intermediate for making API prior...

For 3QFY2016, Lupin posted results more or less in line with our expectations. A higher than expected other income aided the net profit to come in higher than our expectation. The company posted sales of Rs3,358cr (V/s Rs3,400cr expected), a growth of 6.8% yoy. On the operating front, the OPM came in at 20.2% (V/s 20.5% expected) V/s 27.0% in 3QFY2015. R&D; expenditure during the quarter was 11.7% of sales V/s 8.3% of sales in 3QFY2015. The net profit came in at Rs530cr (V/s Rs469cr expected) and V/s Rs601cr in 3QFY2015, a yoy dip of 11.9%. The higher than expected PAT is on back of higher other income yoy, which came in at Rs263cr V/s Rs116.1cr in 3QFY2015. Overall, we are Neutral on the stock. Results below expectations: For 3QFY2016, Lupin posted results more or less in line with our expectations. A higher than expected other income aided the net profit to come in higher than our expectation. The company posted sales of Rs3,358cr (V/s Rs3,400cr expected), a growth of 6.8% yoy. On the operating front, the OPM came in at 20.2% (V/s 20.5% expected) V/s 27.0% in 3QFY2015. R&D; expenditure during the quarter was 11.7% of sales V/s 8.3%...