Lupin Ltd. share price target

Key products in US and price cuts in Japan impact revenues and profits: Lupin's revenues decreased by 0.4% YoY to Rs 38.5 bn in Q1FY19 lower than ourestimates of Rs 41.5 bn on the back of dismal performance in US market.Business from EMEA and India clocked decent growth, while US and LATAMshowed de-growth of 26% and 1% YoY respectively.

Maintain BUY with a reduced TP of 1000 (22x FY20E). Lupins (LPC) performance in 1QFY19 was not up to the mark, and below our expectations, with revenue at Rs 38.6bn down 0.4%YoY and 4.4%QoQ (5.7% miss). The disappointment in result is majorly attributed to the US and Japan businesses. While all segments were down on a YoY basis, domestic growth of 23.6% is on a favourable base. Margin at 13.7% was down 620bps YoY/390bps QoQ primarily on the back of US$ 50mn sequential fall in the US business. PAT at Rs 2bn was down 43%YoY.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenue growth was flat YoY at | 3856 crore (I-direct estimate: | 4328.6 crore). US revenue declined 26% YoY to | 1185.8 crore (Idirect estimate: | 1512.6 crore). India revenues grew 27.9% to | 1192.4 crore, almost in line with I-direct estimate of | 1212.1 crore EBITDA margins declined 619 bps YoY to 13.7% (I-direct estimate: 21.6%) mainly due to a decline in gross margins (62.5% vs. 68.1%, 66.2% in Q1FY18, Q4FY18, respectively). EBITDA declined 31.4% YoY to | 527 crore below I-direct estimate of | 775 crore...

9 August 2018 Lupins (LPC) revenue was stable YoY at INR38.6b (est. Domestic formulation sales (31% of sales) grew 28% YoY, driving overall sales growth. However, this was largely offset by a 26% YoY decline in US sales (31% of sales). Pricing pressure in key products in the US market and seasonality led to 560bp YoY contraction in the gross margin to 63%. EBITDA margin shrank ~610bp YoY to 13.7% due to a lower gross margin and increased other expenditure. Absolute EBITDA declined ~31% YoY (-26% QoQ) to INR5.3b (est. The decline in PAT (-43% YoY to INR2b v/s est.

Lupin Ltd. reported a surprise loss in the quarter ended March due to a one-time provision for impairment of certain assets. The company reported a loss of Rs 776.22 crore as compared with a profit of Rs 380 crore in the same quarter last year. Material cost increased by 577 bp to 34.2% of sales, at Rs. 1,362.6 crore compared to Rs. 1,185.1 crore in Q4 FY2017. Personnel cost increased by 131 bp to 18.3% of sales, at Rs. 728.7...

Revenue increased by 2.0% to Rs. 3978.49 Cr in Q4FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Lupin Ltd Q4FY18 Results Comment

Lupin's revenues decreased by 5% YoY to Rs 40.3 bn in Q4FY18 lower thanour estimates of Rs 41.7 bn on the back of continued dismal performance in US market. Business from LATAM, EMEA and India clocked decent growth,while US showed de-growth of 21% YoY.

Lending strong support from valuations (20x P/E on FY18 EPS, 19x FY19E and 13x FY20E) which is at significant discount to peers, we maintain BUY rating on the stock with a TP of Rs 1190 (20x FY20E). After taking Gavis acquisition related impairment of Rs 14bn, Lupin (LPC) reported loss of Rs 7.8bn in 4QFY18. Adjusted for Gavis write off, PAT stood at Rs 3.5bn, in line with our estimates. Revenues grew 5% ahead of estimates to Rs 40bn, down 6%YoY. EBITDA came in at Rs 6.9bn, down 11%YoY/up 2%QoQ. Margin was flat QoQ at 17.6% in 4QFY18.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues declined 5% YoY to | 4034 crore (I-direct estimate: | 4030 crore) mainly due to 21% YoY de-growth in the US to | 1499 crore (Idirect estimate: | 1412 crore). This was on account of the high base of Metformin sales in Q4FY17. India sales increased 10% to | 965 crore, in line with I-direct estimate of | 967 crore EBITDA margins declined 80 bps YoY to 17.6% (I-direct estimate: 19.2%). The decline in gross margins (592 bps to 66.2%) was largely offset by lower other expenditure. EBITDA declined 9% YoY to | 709...

Lupin (LPC) continued to deliver a weak operational performance in 4QFY18 with its revenue declining by 5% YoY to Rs40.3bn owing to 18.8% YoY decline in US business to US$224mn. However, domestic business grew by 9.8%, which adjusted for GST grew by 13.5% YoY, while APAC, EMEA and LatAm sales rose by 8.5% YoY, 16.6% YoY and 29.6% YoY, respectively. Notably, its Japan business grew by 7% YoY (in CC terms) impacted by price cut. Gross margin declined by 592bps to 66.2% due to adverse product-mix which led to contraction in EBITDA margin to ~17.6% (vs. 26.0% in 4QFY17). EBITDA declining by 36% YoY to Rs7.1bn due to higher operating cost and weak US sales. LPC incurred Rs7.8bn net loss due to write-off of Rs14.6bn relating to...