Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. share price target

HPCL's Q4FY17 PAT at Rs 18 bn was significantly higher than our/ street estimate of Rs 10 bn led by strong GRM at USD 8/bl (vs. USD 5.5/bl expected).

HPCLs 4QFY17 EBITDA came in at Rs 29bn and PAT at Rs 18bn. The results are not comparable to the prior period, owing to the impact of inventory, forex and oil UR. Inventory gains in 4Q were Rs 743mn.

Lower crude throughput and sales volume dent revenue growth The company's revenue grew 22% YoY to Rs515 bn mainly due to higher crude oil prices. Crude throughput declined 1.3% to 4.6mmt while sales volume decreased 2.1% YoY to 8.9mmt. Gross under-recovery came at Rs3.2 bn vs Rs2.5 bn, which was fully absorbed by the government....

Revenue grew by 6.04% to Rs. 51414.21 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter.

Revenue grew by 15.36% to Rs. 48485.57 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it rose by 12.92% when compared with Q3FY16.

EBITDA at | 2803.3 crore was higher than our estimated EBITDA of | 2475.6 crore due to higher-than-expected crude throughput and marketing margins (due to inventory gains). GRMs were at US$...

Higher crude throughput and sales volume boost revenue 11.6% YoY The company's revenue grew 11.6% YoY to Rs486 bn which camein line with expectation. Crude throughput increased 2% YoY to 4.7mmt (+15.3% QoQ) led by higher utilization from...

HPCLs 3QFY17 EBITDA came in at Rs 28bn. Interest cost remains low (-68% YoY), owing to lower oil under recovery. PAT was at Rs 15.9bn. Results are not comparable to the previous periods owing to the impact of inventory, forex and oil under-recovery.

HPCL reported a weak set of numbers in Q2FY17 on the back of higher than expected inventory loss and lower than expected volume. The company's revenue remained flattish YoY to Rs421 bn (below IDBIest) while EBITDA came at Rs12.6 bn vs a loss of Rs667 mn (-65% QoQ) and net profit grew to Rs7 bn against a net loss of Rs3.2 bn, below expectation. Crude throughput decreased 4% YoY to 4.5mmt (-9.8% QoQ) while sales volume increased 3.2% to 8.2mmt (-8.3% QoQ). GRM came at US$3.2/bbl in Q2FY17, up from US$2.7/bbl in Q2FY16. Total under-recoveries on SKO came at Rs3.6 bn which was fully absorbed by the government. We are revising our SOTP based TP upwards to Rs457 (based on 11x FY18E EPS) from Rs400 earlier on the back of improved...

HPCLs 2QFY17 EBITDA was Rs 12.6bn. Interest cost remains low (-31% YoY) owing to lower oil under recovery. PAT was Rs 7.0bn. Due to impact of inventory/forex the results are not comparable to previous periods. The sequential decline in EBITDA was led by absence of inventory gains in 2Q.