Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. share price target

Maintain Neutral. HPCLs 3QFY18 EBITDA came in at Rs 31.59bn, up 9.5% YoY and 8.7% QoQ. This has been attributed to 102% YoY jump in core GRM to USD6.1/bbl, and 1.8% increase in marketing volumes at 8.7 mnT. However, sequentially, the blended gross marketing margin was down 15.6% to USD7/bbl (or Rs2.8/lit) largely attributed to the lack of adequate increase in auto fuel prices during the state elections. APAT was Rs 19.5bn, up 22.6% YoY and 12.4% QoQ owing to higher other income at Rs4.74bn (+67.8% YoY) and lower tax rate.

Higher sales volume lifts revenue; core GRM came lower than expectation Revenue increased 18.4% YoY to Rs575 bn, EBITDA grew 12.7% YoY to Rs31.6 bn while net profit increased 23% to Rs19.5 bn. Crude throughput declined 3% to 4.5mmt while sales volume grew 1.8% to 9.4mmt. Core GRM improved to US$6.1/bbl vs US$3/bbl, below our estimate. Marketing profit declined significantly; expecting recovery in near term HPCL's marketing EBITDA (excl inventory gain) declined 36% YoY (-51% QoQ) to Rs987/mt owing to restricted retail price. Marketing segment's contribution to...

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on lower sales volumes. HPCL reported a profit of Rs 1734.74 crore in Q2FY'18 compared to profit of Rs 701.32 crore in Q2FY'17, up by 147% while net sales rose 13% to Rs 47522.58 crore. Budgetary support from the government was Rs 123.94 crore in Q2FY'18 compared to Rs...

HPCL's Q2FY18 result came below our expectation on the back of lower than expected profit from refinery segment, partially offset by higher marketing profits. Revenue increased 12.9% YoY to Rs475 bn, EBITDA grew 130% YoY to Rs29 bn while net profit increased 147% to Rs17.3 bn. This is mainly due to 15% higher crude throughput to 4.6mmt and 6.7% growth in sales volume and inventory gains. Also GRM improved to US$7.6/bbl vs US$3.2/bbl (core GRM US$5.6/bbl vs US$4.2/bbl). We expect rising crude oil price and increased competition would keep marketing...

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd Q2FY18 results comment Revenue fell by 11.32% to Rs. 47339.55 Cr in Q2FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. On the other hand, it rose by 12.63% when compared with Q2FY17.

Our SOTP target is Rs 458 (5x Sep 19E EV/e for standalone refining, 8x EV/e for marketing, 9x for pipeline and Rs 150/sh from other investments). NEUTRAL HPCLs 2QFY18 EBITDA came in at Rs 29bn, up 130% YoY and 78.5% QoQ. This has been attributed to 31.4% YoY jump in core GRM to USD5.6/bbl, 15% YoY increase in refining throughput to 4.6mnT, and 6.7% increase in marketing volumes at 8.7 mnT. APAT was Rs 17.3bn, up 147% YoY and 87.6% QoQ.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Hindustan Petroleum Corporation's (HPCL) Q2FY18 results were below our estimates on the operational front. The topline declined 9.4% QoQ to | 54335.8 crore (our estimate: | 62314.4 crore). HPCL achieved crude throughput of 4.6 MMT in Q2FY18 largely in line with our estimates. The GRMs stood at US$ 7.6/bbl below our expectation of US$ 9.1/bbl. Lower than expected operational performance led to lower profitability in the refining segment....

OMCs reported core-GRMs of USD 8-9/bl (after adjusting for inventory loss of USD 3-3.4/bl) surprised us positively. Firm QTD Singapore GRMs at USD 6.6/bl raise hopes that such out performance may continue in Q2 as well.

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation's (HPCL) Q1FY18 results were above our estimates on the operational front. The topline increased 2% QoQ to | 59974.9 crore (our estimate: | 54624.6 crore) HPCL achieved crude throughput of 4.5 MMT in Q1FY18 against 4.6 MMT in Q4FY17, in line with our estimate. GRMs were at US$5.9/bbl above our estimate of US$5.3/bbl. However, EBITDA declined 43.6% QoQ to | 1628 crore below our estimates on account of higher inventory loss on marketing front...

Revenue rose by 3.83% to Rs. 53384.84 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Revenue rose by 3.83% to Rs. 53384.84 Cr in Q1FY18 when compared to the previous quarter.