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Alembic Pharma (4QFY19): Investment phase continues. Maintain NEUTRAL
HDFC Securities
The shortage in Sartans has moderated in the US and the co is not expected to gain from this in FY20E. Sustainable growth relies upon new launches in the US. We believe the benefits of new launches would be back-ended (post FY21E), stretching the payback period on the US$ 450mn spent by Alembic over the last ~3 years. Meanwhile, with a majority of the new plants nearing commissioning, the incremental cost would remain unabsorbed and dent profitability as revenue growth will be delayed. The valuations seem unfavorable at current levels of 22/18x FY20/21E P/E. Maintain Neutral. We maintain NEUTRAL on ALPM following a miss on our estimates. Our TP is revised at Rs 570/sh (18x FY21E EPS) following a 4% cut in FY21 EPS to account for higher R&D;.
