HDFC Bank Ltd. share price target

We recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs 785/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP.

On 1-Oct-26, the RBI approved the appointment of Anup Bagchi, an ICICI Bank veteran and current MD&CEO of ICICI Life, as the MD & CEO of HDFC Bank for a three-year period starting 27-Oct-26.

The RBI has approved the appointment of Mr. Anup Bagchi as the new MD & CEO of HDFC Bank for a three-year term starting 27th Oct’26. He will succeed Mr. Sashidhar Jagdishan, whose term ends on 26th Oct’26.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB) has received the RBI’s nod to appoint Mr. Anup Bagchi as MD & CEO (link). Mr. Bagchi has helmed ICICI Pru Life as MD & CEO and was Executive Director of ICICI Bank.

Succession uncertainty remains a near-term overhang; smooth transition critical: Sashidhar Jagdishan's decision not to seek reappointment has shifted focus towards the board's choice of successor ahead of his retirement on October 26. Deputy MD Kaizad Bharucha remains a strong internal candidate, although his residual tenure under RBI norms is less than 3 years, while the board could also evaluate other internal/external candidates. Thus, appointment of new leadership within timelines, as assured by the board, and smooth transition remains a near...

Mr. Sashidhar Jagdishan, MD&CEO, of HDFC Bank, has informed the board about his decision to not seek re-appointment (link). The timing of the decision, at the fag end of term renewal, is notable, given that his current term has been accompanied by several regulatory hurdles, alongside the abrupt resignation of former chairman citing ethical incongruence.

Mr. Sashidhar Jagdishan has decided to not seek his reappointment as MD & CEO of HDFC Bank and shall retire on 26th Oct’26. The board will thus fast-track the process of selection and appointment of his successor.

HDFC Bank is entering the early stages of a margin and ROE inflection rather than a stabilization phase. The post-merger decline in ROE from the pre-merger high teens to approximately 13% to 14% has been the key overhang on the stock.

HDFC Bank delivered a steady Q1FY27, with strengthening balance sheet growth led by a robust liability franchise and accelerating credit momentum. Average deposits grew 13.3% YoY (EOP +14.7%) to 30.1tn, while average advances under management rose 10.8% YoY (EOP +12.4%). Gross advances grew 15.4% YoY, led by corporate and SME. Asset quality stayed resilient with GNPA at 1.17% and NNPA at 0.41%. NII grew 6.7% YoY to 335.3bn; reported PAT rose 5.0% YoY (adjusted +9.8%, excluding prior-year HDBFS gains, one-off provisions...

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Focus on deepening customer relation to sustain RoA Largest private sector bank with loan book of ~ 30.6 lakh crore Q1FY27 performance: HDFC Bank reported a steady Q1FY27 performance, with advances increasing 15.4% YoY (3.4% QoQ) to 30.6 lakh crore, supported by continued traction across MSME and corporate segment. Deposits grew 14.7% YoY (2.1% QoQ) to 31.7 lakh crore, while average deposits increased 13.3% YoY. Net interest income rose 6.7% YoY (1.4% QoQ) to 33,530 crore, though NIM moderated ~10 bps QoQ to 3.4%, amid evolving interest rate cycle. Operating expenses...

Despite accelerating loan growth and contained opex, HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported weak Q1FY27 PAT of INR 191bn (up 5% YoY; 5% miss), as NIM, CASA and RoA moderated to multi-quarter low.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported a 1QFY27 profit of INR190.6b (+5% YoY/-1% QoQ; in line), aided by an in-line NII and lower-than-expected LLP.

Despite some pick-up in loan growth to 15.5% y/y, HDFC Bank’s credit growth remained well below peers such as ICICI Bank and Axis Bank.

HDFC Bank’s (HDFCB) FY26 annual report highlights its focus on sustainable, profitable growth over the medium term, supported by continued investments in network and distribution expansion and digital capabilities.

NIM Recovery through FY27 - FY28E: Incomplete deposit repricing (only ~40–50 bps vs 125 bps rate cuts on assets) and gradual run-down of high-cost legacy borrowings should lower CoF from ~4.99% to ~4.60% by Q4FY28E.

Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the bank's quarterly performance was flat due to diversified corporate demand from emerging sectors, sustained retail momentum, enhanced digital capabilities and a stronger distribution reach across customer segments. Growth is likely to be supported by opportunities in electronics, food processing, auto ancillaries, renewables and semiconductors, along with acquisitions and project financing. On the retail side, continued traction in auto and...

4Q was relatively better for HDFC Bank with deposit growth accelerating to 14.4% y/y (vs. 11.6% in Q3), 406bps q/q improvement in LDR, +3bps q/q NIM expansion, and improved asset quality both on q/q and y/y basis.

HDFC Bank reported strong credit growth of 12% YoY (7% in 3QFY26), highest since post-merger integration while deposit growth at 14.4% YoY continued to outpace credit, aiding CD ratio normalisation. NIMs declined further due to faster EBLR asset repricing vs. deposit costs; ~70% of the loan book remains EBLR-linked. Asset quality improved with GNPA at 1.15% vs. 1.24% QoQ as seasonal slippages normalised. Net income grew 11% YoY, with ROA stable at 1.9% supported by cost efficiencies, cost-to-income improved to 39.5% from 40.5%. We have largely maintained estimates. We maintain BUY with revised...

HDFCB saw a soft quarter as core PAT at INR 173bn missed PLe by ~5% due to lower NII and fees. Asset quality was under control that resulted in lower provisions. Deposit growth was strong at 8.6% QoQ and bank attributed this to focus on granular deposits. While LDR is not a constraint as per the bank, LCR is a bit lower at 114%. We are factoring a loan/deposit CAGR of 12/13% over FY26-28E that may translate to deposit requirement of INR 4.0-4.5trn. We trim NIM and fees for 27/28E which has led to cut in core PAT by avg. 3.0%. Due to cautious sector outlook on growth and NIM, we trim multiple to 2.2x from 2.5x but roll forward to FY28 core ABV. Hence, we tweak TP to...