GAIL (India) Ltd. share price target

GAIL (India) Q2FY21 result was below our and consensus estimates mainly due to losses from trading business. However, the company reported strong performance from gas transmission and petchem business which benefited from higher volume and margin. On a positive note, the company has guided for better performance from trading business in H2 vs H1 (EBITDA loss of Rs8.5 bn), 10% growth in gas transmission volume in FY22 and over 100% capacity utilization at petchem going forward. We are cutting EBITDA/PAT by 10%/12% and 11%/13% for FY21E and FY22E respectively to factor in weaker trading profits and introduce FY23E financials. We cut our TP marginally to Rs109...

GAIL's Q2FY21 PAT was in line at Rs 12.4bn (+17% YoY), driven by an improved operating performance across segments (except trading).

GAIL reported lower-than-estimated 2QFY21 EBITDA, led by continued poor performance in gas trading for the second consecutive quarter. However, other segments reported better numbers (with petchem being a surprise). Gas transmission volumes stood at 106mmscmd (-2% YoY) in 2QFY21, although above FY20 average. GAIL expects further increase in transmission and trading volumes in the coming quarters. With some delay, the Kochi-Mangalore pipeline is expected to be completed by end-Nov'20 and gas sales of ~0.7mmscmd will start immediately....

Segment wise, natural gas transmission revenue stood at Rs 1268.13 crore, down by 14% YoY and accounted for 8% of sales. PBIT from the same was down by 17% to Rs 716.65 crore with PBIT margin at 56.5% as compared to 58.1% for June19 quarter. LPG transmission revenues stood at Rs 153.55 crore up by 14% YoY and accounted for 1% of sales. PBIT from the same rose 32% to Rs 81.48 crore. PBIT margins stood at 53.1% as compared to 45.7% for June19 quarter. Natural gas marketing segment revenue stood at Rs 11635.38 crore down by 38% YoY and accounted for 73% of sales. PBIT from the same was loss of Rs 614.06 crore compared to profit...

Gas transmission segment volumes were down 14.4% YoY at 90.2 mmscmd (our estimate: 97.5 mmscmd) as offtake was lower due to impact of lockdown. Going ahead, we estimate transmission volumes at 109 mmscmd, 127.5 mmscmd for FY21E, FY22E, respectively, due to additional domestic gas from newer fields. The gas transmission EBIT at | 716.7 crore, was down 16.6% YoY but above our estimates due to lower costs. Gas trading volumes declined 15.9% YoY to 81.2 mmscmd. Gas trading reported loss of | 545.5 crore (estimated profit: | 214.9 crore) as the company had to...

GAIL (India) Q1FY21 result disappointed at almost all the parameters led by dismal result from trading division, which reported loss against expectations of profit. Though, volume decline was lower than our estimates but, 1) inventory loss of Rs2.5 bn at marketing division, 2) net loss at petchem division due to lower utilization, and 3) sharp fall of 46% YoY in LHC profit translated to 72%/80% YoY fall in EBITDA/PAT. On a positive note, the management highlighted that transmission/trading business has reached closer to preCovid levels while petchem and LHC plants are operating at 100% utilization. However, wide spread between Spot and long term contract LNG price raises concern over profitability of gas trading division. The company expects transmission volume to increase by 10mmscmd...

Significant impact in physical performance coupled with lower price realisations. Maintain Accumulate GAIL's Q1FY21 results were below our estimates on revenue front and...

Weak performance: GAIL reported sharply lower than expected Q1FY21 results- EBITDA Rs6.2bn (PLe: Rs16.9bn; -72% YoY) and PAT at Rs2.5bn (PLe Rs11.0bn; -80% YoY), respectively. Profit was dragged by lower...

GAIL's Q1FY21 PAT was below estimates at Rs 2.6bn (80% YoY).

GAIL (India) consolidated net sales of the company fell 6% to Rs 17922.79 crore in Q4FY20 compared to Q4FY19. OPM of the company rose 660 bps to 15.9% leading to 62% increase in operating profits to Rs 2841.93 crore. Other income was up 17% to Rs 955.56 crore. As a result PBDIT increased 48% to 3797.49 crore. Interest cost rose 787% to Rs 215.62 crore while depreciation rose 31% to Rs 639.89 crore. PBT was up 43% to Rs 2941.98 crore....