GAIL (India) Ltd. share price target

GAIL (India) reported profit after tax of Rs 1122.23 crore in Q4FY19 up by 10% compared to company fell 200 bps to 9% in Q4FY'19 compared to Q4FY'18 leading to 1% decrease in operating profits to Rs 1684.08 crore. Cost of material consumed as a percentage of adjusted net sales fell 10 bps to 6.7%. Purchase of stock in trade was up 190 bps to 73.9%. Employee benefit expense fell 20 bps to 2.2%. Other expenses rose 20 bps to 8.1%. Other income was up 214% to Rs 865.88 crore. As a result PBDIT increased 29% to 2549.96 crore. Interest cost fell 21% to Rs 26.33 crore while depreciation rose 27% to Rs 457.37 crore....

(1) Rising supply of NG and (2) A multitude of LNG liquefaction terminals coming on-stream towards the fag end of CY19 will boost RLNG exports from US and also keep Henry Hub (HH) prices subdued in the near term, enabling GAIL to swap more cargoes. Thus, the US LNG is not a stress point. Our SOTP target is Rs 408 (7.5x Mar-20E EV/e to the more stable Gas and LPG transmission businesses, 5.0x EV/e to the more volatile gas marketing business, 6.5x EV/e for the cyclical petchem and LPG/LHC businesses, Rs 75 for investments and Rs 23/sh for CWIP). Given GAILs dominant position in Indias gas pipeline network and the high share of volume in the upcoming eastern corridor gas pipeline, its gas transmission business is likely to be in a sweet spot. Maintain BUY.

GAIL's Q4FY19 result was a miss to our estimate owing to lower profits from Petchem and Gas trading segment. Revenue/Adj. PAT increased by 21.6%/13% YoY to Rs187bn/Rs11bn whereas EBITDA remained flattish YoY at Rs16.8bn in Q4FY19. Gas trading volume increased 10% YoY to 98mmscmd whereas gas transmission volume grew by 3% YoY to 109mmscmd. The company has already booked ~90% of US LNG volume in CY20 which provides positive growth outlook. We slightly tweak our TP to...

Gail India reported a mixed set of results for Q4FY19. The profitability of gas transmission, gas trading were marginally above our estimates whereas petchem segment, LPG segment results were below our estimates. EBITDA at | 1684.1 crore (flattish YoY), came below our estimates of | 2176.4 crore also on account of higher other expenses. Subsequently, the reported PAT...

Results below estimates supported by gas marketing. Maintain Accumulate GAIL's Q4FY19 revenue were in line with our estimates. Profitability was below our estimate, due to weakness in the petchem, LPG, and LHC business, which was offset by the gas marketing business. Considering the volatility in crude oil, performance in the gas marketing segment is commendable and lead us to believe that H1FY20 results will be robust. The management continues to guide that all cargoes expected in short term are completely hedged. The gas transmission volumes at 109...

GAIL's Q4FY19 adj. PAT came in below estimates at Rs 13.3bn (+28% YoY). EBITDA (Rs 16.8bn, flat YoY) was affected by higher other expenses. Operationally, volumes and gross margins were in line across segments. Management reiterated that (a) hedges/swaps on US LNG should protect trading EBITDA until FY22 (as evidenced in Q4FY19), (b) gas transmission volumes remain upbeat, and (c) the worst looks to be over for the cyclical...

Gas transmission volume was in line with estimate at 109mmscmd (+3% YoY, +1% QoQ). For FY19, transmission volumes were at 107mmscmd (+2% YoY). Petchem sales were at 213mmt (+12% YoY, +23% QoQ), though higher cost and lower realization at INR81/kg (-6% YoY, -13% QoQ) resulted in lower...

We hosted 13 expert speakers at our Conference on NPA Resolutions & Recoveries last week, cutting across the spectrum of ARCs, special situation funds, banks, law firms, transaction advisors and resolution professionals. Key takeaways: (1) IBC will gradually evolve into a robust corrective mechanism, but for now large-scale resolution of lumpy accounts remains onerous; (2) haircuts for the 34 stressed power assets and cases under NCLT list-1/list-2 average...

1262.22 crore in Q3FY18 mainly due to better performance by Natural Gas (NG) Marketing, NG compared to Q3FY'18 leading to 34% increase in operating profits to Rs 2673.48 crore. Cost of material consumed as a percentage of adjusted net sales fell 90 bps to 6.1%. Purchase of stock...

Gail India reported a good set of Q3FY19 numbers, which came in above our estimates. The profitability of gas transmission, gas trading and LPG segment were above our estimates whereas petchem segment results were below our estimates EBITDA at | 2673.5 crore (up 35.7% YoY) came in above our estimates of | 2227.6 crore on account of better gas transmission profits (up 31%), higher margins in natural gas trading (up 2x YoY) and higher realisations in LPG/LLH segment (up 26.7%)...